Local Climate & Management: Using stand-level modeling to predict climate change effects on forests WADE TINKHAM Wildfire in Idaho, 2007 © National Geographic.

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Presentation transcript:

Local Climate & Management: Using stand-level modeling to predict climate change effects on forests WADE TINKHAM Wildfire in Idaho, 2007 © National Geographic Prescribed fire treatments, Moscow Mtn., ID, 2010 © Jarod Blades Forwarder loading harvested logs © Unknown

Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations less Heating more G LOBAL R EGIONAL M AKING C LIMATE S CIENCE R ELEVANT L OCAL 2

Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations F RAMING CLIMATE CHANGE IN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT Effects of Management Can we maintain historical range of variability? Or do we manage for “resilient systems”? No Climate Change A2 Climate Influence Climate-FVS How it works Adjusts the site index as climate changes Incorporates species climate spaces Assumes seed availability is unlimited 3

No Climate Change A2 Scenario A2 – thinning with Rx Fire, followed by Wildfire A2 - thinning with Rx Fire, followed by Harvest A2 – repeated thinning with Rx Fire, followed by Wildfire Elevation Low High Mid Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations F UTURE F OREST S TRUCTURE (2070) 4

Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations Low Elevation Pine Stand 5 I NFLUENCE OF C LIMATE

Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations A2 Climate No Management Climate Influence Mean cold month temperature ↑ 3.4° C (-4.8 ° to -1.4°) Frost free period ↑ ~60 days Mean annual precipitation ↑ ~6% Current Climate No Management Thinning and Rx Fire in 2030 Wildfire in 2060 Thinning and Rx Fire in 2030, Harvest in 2060 Repeated Thinning and Rx Fire in 2010, 2030, Wildfire in 2060 L OW E LEVATION P INE S TAND Forest Structure

Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations YearSpecies No Climate A2 Climate Thinning & Wildfire Thinning & Harvest Repeated Thinning & Wildfire 2010 Grand fir Ponderosa Pine Douglas-fir Grand fir Ponderosa pine Douglas-fir Grand fir Ponderosa pine Douglas-fir Changes in Species Importance Transitions to mixed fir stand; ↓ in ponderosa pine * Harvested in 2050 L OW E LEVATION P INE S TAND -S PECIES I MPORTANCE - 7

Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations YearMetric No Climate A2 Climate Thinning & Wildfire Thinning & Harvest Repeated Thinning & Wildfire 2010 CBH11112 Torching Index Crowning Index CBH33663 Torching Index Crowning Index CBH Torching Index Crowning Index Stand Resilience to Fire ↑ fire resistance L OW E LEVATION P INE S TAND -R ESILIENCY - * Harvested in 2050

Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations YearMetric No Climate A2 Climate Thinning & Wildfire Thinning & Harvest Repeated Thinning & Wildfire 2010 MBF/Acre Tons Carbon/Acre MBF/Acre Tons Carbon/Acre MBF/Acre Tons Carbon/Acre * Harvested in 2050 Site Productivity Similar but slightly diminished productivity L OW E LEVATION P INE S TAND -P RODUCTIVITY - 9

Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations C LIMATE I NFLUENCE Regardless of management, the stand transitions to a mixed fir stand. Stand departs from historical range of variability but appears healthy. M ANAGEMENT I MPACTS Management can ↑ fire resiliency. Management allows the system to be healthy and productive. 10 Low Elevation Pine Stand

Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations I NFLUENCE OF C LIMATE Mid Elevation Fir/Larch Stand 11

Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations A2 Climate No Management Climates Influence Mean cold month temperature ↑ 3.4° C (-6.3 ° to -2.9°) Frost free period ↑ ~40 days Mean annual precipitation ↑ ~6% Current Climate No Management Thinning and Rx Fire in 2030 Wildfire in 2060 Thinning and Rx Fire in 2030 Harvest in 2060 Repeated Thinning and Rx Fire in 2010, 2030, Wildfire in 2060 M ID E LEVATION F IR /L ARCH S TAND Forest Structure

Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations YearSpecies No Climate A2 Climate Thinning & Wildfire Thinning & Harvest Repeated Thinning & Wildfire 2010 Douglas-fir Larch/white pine0.01 Grand fir Douglas-fir Larch/white pine Grand fir Douglas-fir Larch/white pine Grand fir * Harvested in 2060 M ID E LEVATION F IR /L ARCH S TAND -S PECIES I MPORTANCE - Changes in Species Importance ↑ in western larch/western white pine and grand fir through management 13

Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations YearMetric No Climate A2 Climate Thinning & Wildfire Thinning & Harvest Repeated Thinning & Wildfire 2010 CBH3635 Torching Index Crowning Index CBH11225 Torching Index Crowning Index CBH21486 Torching Index Crowning Index * Harvested in 2060 Stand Resilience to Fire ↑ fire resistance through management M ID E LEVATION F IR /L ARCH S TAND -R ESILIENCY -

Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations YearMetric No Climate A2 Climate Thinning & Wildfire Thinning & Harvest Repeated Thinning & Wildfire 2010 MBF/Acre1.1 Tons Carbon/Acre MBF/Acre Tons Carbon/Acre MBF/Acre Tons Carbon/Acre * Harvested in 2060 Site Productivity Similar productivity 15 M ID E LEVATION F IR /L ARCH S TAND -P RODUCTIVITY -

Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations C LIMATE I NFLUENCE Stand composition remains similar to the historical range of variability. Western larch and western white pine are recruited into the stand. M ANAGEMENT I MPACTS Through management we see ↑ recruitment of minority species. Management can ↑ fire resiliency. Species recruitment should ↑ the system health. 16 Mid Elevation Fir/Larch Stand

Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations I NFLUENCE OF C LIMATE High Elevation Subalpine Stand 17

Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations Thinning and Rx Fire in 2030 Wildfire in 2060 Thinning and Rx Fire in 2030 Harvest in 2060 Repeated Thinning and Rx Fire in 2010, 2030, Wildfire in 2060 Current Climate No Management H IGH E LEVATION S UBALPINE S TAND Forest Structure 2070 A2 Climate No Management Climates Influence Mean cold month temperature ↑ 3.4° C (-8.0 ° to -4.6°) Frost free period ↑ ~30 days Mean annual precipitation ↑ ~7% 18

Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations YearSpecies No Climate A2 Climate Thinning & Wildfire Thinning & Harvest Repeated Thinning & Wildfire 2010 Subalpine fir Larch0.00 Douglas-fir Subalpine fir Larch Douglas-fir Subalpine fir Larch Douglas-fir * Harvest never triggered; failed to reach SDI = 300 H IGH E LEVATION S UBALPINE S TAND -S PECIES I MPORTANCE - Changes in Species Importance ↓ of subalpine fir ↑ of western larch and Douglas-fir 19

Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations YearMetric No Climate A2 Climate Thinning & Wildfire Thinning & Harvest Repeated Thinning & Wildfire 2010 CBH10010 Torching Index10010 Crowning Index CBH Torching Index Crowning Index CBH Torching Index Crowning Index * Harvest never triggered; failed to reach SDI = 300 H IGH E LEVATION S UBALPINE S TAND -R ESILIENCY - Stand Resilience to Fire ↑ fire resistance through management 20

Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations YearMetric No Climate A2 Climate Thinning & Wildfire Thinning & Harvest * Repeated Thinning & Wildfire 2010 MBF/Acre0.0 Tons Carbon/Acre MBF/Acre Tons Carbon/Acre MBF/Acre Tons Carbon/Acre * Harvest never triggered; failed to reach SDI = 300 H IGH E LEVATION S UBALPINE S TAND -P RODUCTIVITY - Site Productivity ↓ productivity due to significant changes in species composition 21

Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations C LIMATE I NFLUENCE ↓ in subalpine fir due to loss in climate space. ↑ in Douglas-fir and western larch transitioning the stand to a mixed fir composition. Departing from historical range of variability but appears healthy. M ANAGEMENT I MPACTS Management shifts the timing and rate of change in species composition to early in the century. Management can ↑ fire resiliency. 22 High Elevation Subalpine Stand

Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations QUESTIONS? 23