Barry R. Chiswick 1 GLOBES Conference Tel Aviv, Israel December 2008 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC EXPERIENCE WITH IMMIGRATION Barry R. Chiswick University of Illinois at Chicago and IZA – Institute for the Study of Labor 11/25/08

Barry R. Chiswick 2 Legal Immigration per year Number of people Recently: 1.0 million 1950s: 250, (peak) : 1.0 million Return Migration Foreign Born Population Proportion of U.S. Population 2008:13.0 percent 1970 (low point) : 4.7 percent Immigration to the U.S.

Barry R. Chiswick 3 Immigration by Type of Visa 2007 CategoryThousands Immediate Relatives of US Citizens Family Sponsored194 Employment Based (and their families) 162 Diversity42 Refugees, Asylees, Parolees138 Other20 TOTAL1,052

Barry R. Chiswick 4 Origins of Legal Immigrants, 2007 Total Number: 1,052,416 Region Percent Africa 9 Asia 36 Europe 11 N. America Mexico Canada S. America 11 Oceania 1 Total100

Barry R. Chiswick 5 Illegal Immigration Apprehensions: 1.0 to 1.8 million/year since 1976 Now about 1.0 million/year 85 to 90 percent Mexicans apprehended at the border Stock: Estimated at 12 million Skills: Primarily very low skilled

Barry R. Chiswick 6 U. S. Immigration in Recent Decades Increase in high-skilled immigration –(legal – H1-B, permanent and temporary) –Sectors: High technology, science and engineering, IT, Medicine, R&D –Raised US productivity, productivity potential, and global competitiveness

Barry R. Chiswick 7 U. S. Immigration in Recent Decades Increase in low-skilled immigration (very large) –Sectors: Service, Construction, Agriculture, Manufacturing –Increased competition with low- skilled native workers (esp. for low-skilled minorities)

Barry R. Chiswick 8 U. S. Immigration in Recent Decades Likely Net Effects: –Increased Inequality in skills –Increased U.S. Productivity –Increased wage inequality –Increased public transfers more than taxes

Barry R. Chiswick 9 U.S. Prospects for the Future Near Term: 1)Reduced number of visas for skilled workers (permanent and temporary) during recession 2)Amnesty (“Earned Legalization”) for millions of illegal immigrants Longer Term: 1)Continued emphasis on Kinship visas (Ethnic Politics) 2)Post-recession increases in Temporary High-Skill visas 3)Continued growth in illegal migrant population vs. Workplace Enforcement

Barry R. Chiswick 10 Global Prospects for the Future Continued Fall in Costs of information and transportation Continued spread of English as the International Language of Science, Technology, Business, and Higher Education Trade (Goods and Services): –Two-way Street –Continued movement toward Free Trade (reduced tarriff and non-tarriff barriers)

Barry R. Chiswick 11 Global Prospects for the Future Migration From LDCs to DCs: –One-way Street –Continued migration pressures –Transfer Programs & Property Rights (Taxes and Transfers) –Income Distribution –Immigration Restrictions –Enforcement Problems in Liberal Democracies

Barry R. Chiswick 12 Global Prospects for the Future Migration Among DCs: –High degree of international transferability of skills –Global businesses –Migration policies favor high- skilled workers (Permanent and Temporary) –Increasing Globalization of the High-Skilled Labor Market –Implications for: Earnings Migration Flows Technological Change Economic Progress