Tenth Annual Leckey Forum Housing the Region’s Future Workforce Lisa A. Sturtevant, PhD George Mason University School of Public Policy Center for Regional Analysis November 9, 2012

Sources: ACS yr Estimate, HUD SOCDS, Census.

+74% Source: HUD SOCDS, Census, Bureau of Labor & Statistics

How much housing will be required to house the region’s future workforce? What types of housing, tenure patterns and price ranges will this future workforce demand? How will these housing requirements vary by jurisdiction within the region? Housing Research Questions

Net New Jobs by Sub-state Region Net New Jobs Percent Change District of Columbia 152, Suburban Maryland 316, Northern Virginia Arlington Arlington Alexandria Alexandria 578,480 46,640 41, Washington Region1,053, Source: IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Growth by Selected Sector and Median Wages Arlington County / City of Alexandria Net New Jobs Median Wage (2010 $s) Prof & Tech Services53,70073,500 Admin & Waste Services15,00039,900 Education & Health Services8,50037,950 Construction8,00036, 000 Other Services3,00044,000 Leisure & Hospitality2,50023,500 Source: IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2010 – 2030 job losses: Government, Retail, Manufacturing, Transportation

Housing Demand (Net New Units) by Sub-Region Housing Need District of Columbia 122,613 Suburban Maryland 211,612 Northern Virginia Arlington Arlington Alexandria Alexandria 392,817 34,342 30,922 Washington Region731,457 Note: Demand estimates assume all workers are housed in the jurisdiction in which they work.

Building Permits Washington Metro Area Metro annual average = 28, needed = 37,700 Source: US Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Building Permits Arlington and Alexandria Source: US Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Arlington annual average = annual average = 1, needed each yr. = 1,800 Alexandria annual average = annual average = needed each yr. = 1,700

Comparing Current and Forecasted Units Single-Family vs. Multi-Family Units Current* Needed for New Workers SFMFSFMF District of Columbia 39%61%8%92% Suburban Maryland 70%30%40%60% Northern Virginia 72%28%47%53% Washington Region67%33%39%61% *Source: 2009 American Community Survey

Comparing Prices of Current and Forecasted Units Owner-Occupied Units Washington Region Source: Jan-Aug 2011 Sales, MRIS Note: assumes all workers housed in the jurisdiction in which they work

Comparing Rents of Current and Forecasted Units Renter-Occupied Units Washington Region Note: assumes all workers housed in the jurisdiction in which they work Source: 2009 ACS

Local jurisdictions are planning for an insufficient amount of housing to accommodate future workers over the long-term. More housing is needed closer to jobs, in existing and growing regional employment centers. There is a need for more multi-family housing and smaller, more affordable owner and renter homes in the region. A lack of a sufficient supply of housing contributes to worsening traffic and quality of life and threatens our region’s economic vitality. Housing Policy Issues

George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis cra.gmu.edu