EU DG ECHO - DEVCO Addis Meeting Agriculture Sector Resilience 26 th June ‘14

Ethiopia’s headlines Double digit growth rates through ADLI - slowing? Population - 90 million and growing (average age 17) UNDP- HDI ’ of 182 Per capita income US$500, life expectancy 55 yrs, adult literacy 40% (<10% whh) and 45% child stunting (PSNP baseline - 50% and 12% wasting) HoA 3% population receiving 40% food aid. Malnutrition costs Ethiopia US$2.5 billion annually Ethiopian consume 19ltrs milk, Africa 40ltrs and Europe 200ltrs Recurrent shocks: drought, flood, conflict, volatile food prices, disease

Drought hazard frequency (1974 – 2007)

Agriculture sector 12 million farmer/ pastoral households - 95% produce and 85% employment 50 agro-ecological zones - adequate and inadequate moisture and pastoral 75% land area is dryland MoA’s development objective: produce and sell more, nurture the environment, eliminate hunger and protect vulnerable against shocks Agriculture 15% of budget. State Ministry flagships: AGP, SLMP, CPP and PSNP GoE - donor funding % Limited integration, coordination and flexibility

Smallholder farming 85% of holdings <2ha and 40% <05ha. Requirement 2.8ha 50% holdings use fertilizer and 23% improved seed Plots 1-4ha produce 70% cereals. Production doubled in last decade Improved market access - road network 87% smallholders keep livestock Soil erosion - 40 to 200 mt/ha on slopes Vulnerable - landless, women-headed, small plots, elderly and sick FEWSNET report 20% decline in belg in 30 years. This trend affects 1.5 million farmers Shocks - drought, food price, flood, pest/ disease

Belg areas

Pastoral areas 2 to 3 million pastoral households HoA livestock sales - US$ 1 billion Trends:  livestock being concentrated  rangelands: fragmentation, invasive spp, marginalised customary managers, inadequate tenure  policy related challenges  emergence of large, poor ex-pastoral community (livestock still important)  acute malnutrition but onset of stunting

Resilience-building Resilience - ability to bounce back after adversity or hard times, and be capable of building positively on adversity EHCT recognises the business as usual approach is failing poor Ethiopia DEVCO might:  stress importance of livelihood-based vulnerabilities including trends, seasonality and shocks  support holistic approaches linking livelihoods, basic services, DRM, social protection and capacity building  adopt nutrition as a proxy  drive learning to generate evidence that informs programmes and policy  align with the PSNP - Ethiopia’s biggest resilience programme?

Photo and graphic credits: Andy Catley, Kelly Lynch, Cathy Watson