Global Environmental Change Studies: Past, Present and Future Professor Deliang Chen ( 陳德亮 ) ICSU Executive Director Rcg.gvc.gu.se/dc National Central University, Taipei, 24 November, 2010

Outline Earth System Science (ESS) Global Change and Global Environnemental Changes: an example from China ICSU’s perspective on the evolution of the international initiatives/programmes in Global Change research Future of Earth System Science 2

Definitions of ESS 1. Earth science (fluid and solid earth sciences) 2.Extended climate science atmosphere and ocean plus … hydrosphere, biosphere, biogeochemistry, ecology … Oriented to extending climate models to the next generation, and providing the observations needed to constrain them 3.The science of the integrated earth system The interactions between the biophysical and human parts of the Earth Draws from biophysical sciences, ecology, social sciences, economics Uses concepts and tools of complex system science (CSS): self-organisation, hierarchy, emergence, adaptation, … 4.Sustainability Science: the science of the integrated earth system, applied to sustainable development Earth System Science Advanced Climate Science and Earth Observation

Vitousek (1994) What is Global Change? Nitrogen fixation Temperature Biodiversity……….. Global-scale changes that affect the functioning of the Earth System Much more than climate change Socio-economic as well as biophysical For example, changes in: Reid & Miller (1989)

NOAA Atmosphere composition Population N in the coastal zone Forest cover Fisheries exploitation U.S. Bureau of the Census Mackenzie et al (2002) Richards (1991), WRI (1990) FAO What is Global Environmental Change? Nitrogen fixation Temperature Biodiversity……….. For example, changes in:

The Planetary Response to the drivers of the Anthropocene From: Steffen et al ” the great acceleration of the human entreprise”, CO 2, N 2 O, CH 4 concentrations Overfishing Land degradation Loss Biodiversity …

Gong, D.-Y., C.-H. Ho, D. Chen, Y. Qian, Y.-S. Choi, and J. Kim, 2007: Weekly cycle of aerosol- meteorology interaction over China, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 112, D22202, doi: /2007JD Gong et al., J.G.R., 2006; 2007 An Example from China

Anomalies of temperature from Sunday through Saturday. 29 stations, JJA, ; Error bars are  1 standard error about the 29-sample mean.

Anomalous frequency of light rains from Sunday through Saturday. P  5mm/day, 29 stations, JJA, ; Error bars are  1 standard error about the 29-sample mean.

Source: United Nations Statistics Division Globe: Cities with more than 100,000 people in 1997 China: 448 with population >0.5 million, 174 with population >1 million. Most in East China. By 2003

PM10 PM10, JJA, ‘  ’ : PM10 stations, ‘  ’: R2 grids, ‘O’: radio-sounding temperature stations

Profile of temperature anomaly from Sunday through Saturday in troposphere. Shown here is the mean of 15 radiosonde observations. Unit:  C. 1100UTC. Radio-sounding Data sources: Durre et al., J. Climate, 19, Profile of temperature anomaly from Sunday through Saturday in troposphere. Shown here is the mean of 29 R2 grids. Unit:  C. T, R2

Anomaly of the daily mean vertical air velocity (ω) in the lower troposphere between 925 and 850 hPa levels at 29 R2 grids during

Anomaly of the horizontal wind velocity in lower troposphere between 925 and 850hPa levels, shown as the average from radiosonde observations. Error bars are  1 standard error about the sample mean. 1100UTC, data availability >90%. Radio-sounding Data sources: Durre et al., J. Climate, 19, 53-68

Whole China. JJA level Climate change implication…

Linear trend of the number of light rain days during the time period Unit: days/10yr. JJA. Regional mean trends [<10mm/day]: : -1.7days/10yr [ ～ 20 ％ ] : -2.4days/10yr, 0.01 level Climate implication …

Conclusion: There are significant, consistent weekly cycles in meteorological variables in east China during summer, most likely connected to the weekly cycle of air pollution, and a result of aerosol-atmosphere interaction. The significant decreasing of light rains is likely related to the enhanced human activities through the increasing air pollution.

Researching the Earth system Our approach to understanding the Earth System has been to cut the “big picture” into small pieces. Some of the pieces lack detail, others are missing entirely - but…

Researching the Earth system Earth System Science and sustainable development need a systemic approach - someone needs to put together the puzzle!

20 ICSU Founded in 1931, based on two earlier bodies known as the International Association of Academies (IAA; ) and the International Research Council (IRC; ) 121 National Members (representing 141 countries/regions), and 30 International Scientific Union Members 19 Interdisciplinary Bodies (e.g. World Climate Research Programme: WCRP) Unique worldwide access to intellectual resources

ICSU initiated the International Geophysical Year (IGY) in

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ICSU GEC programmes IGBP WCRP IHDP DIVERSITAS International Human Dimensions Programme World Climate Research Programme International Geosphere- Biosphere Programme International Programme of Biodiversity Science

Global Environmental Change (GEC) Research 1980: WCRP 1987: IGBP 1996: IHDP 2002: DIVERSITAS Earth System Science Partnership (2001) 24

GEC Programme Reviews Reviews IHDP: 2006 ESSP: 2008 IGBP: 2009 WCRP: 2009 DIVERSITAS: tba Common recommendations Priority setting Effectiveness Integrated research framework 25

Institutional evolution WCRPDIVERSITASIHDPIGBP ESSP GCP GWSP GECHH GECAFS GCOS GTOS GOOS GEO BON START GLP IRDR PECS GEWEX CLIVAR Etc... AIMES IHOPE Etc... ESG LOICZ Etc... bioSUSTAINAB ILITY bioSERVICES Etc...

Three Decades of Global Change Research Extraordinary progress in understanding the Earth System and consequences of human action Global environmental change outpacing response Current path is unsustainable Sound basis for actions to mitigate and adapt to global change Need far more information and understanding to solve the problem that global environmental change poses for our societies 27

Scientific evolution of convergence towards integrated Earth system science Integrated Earth System Science (growing capability of predicting the Earth system implications of anthropenic change)

Visioning Process Goal: To engage the scientific community to explore options and propose steps to implement a holistic strategy for Earth system research. This strategy will both encourage scientific innovation and address policy needs 29

Earth System Visioning Process 30

Three Step Process Online Consultation (Aug 2009) 1,016 registered users from 85 countries 323 research questions posted 31

Three Step Process Visioning Earth System research meeting (Sept 2009) Early career & senior scientists Science-policy experts Funders GEC programs ICSU and ISSC 32

Three Step Process Review Draft Dec 2009 to Mar Institutions 202 Individuals 33

Three Step Process Open Forum Institutional Support Meeting 34

Three Step Process Transition Meeting 35

36 Future outlook

A new framework is needed Mobilize international global change scientific community around an unprecedented decade of focused and intensive research Human Impacts on System Human Responses Earth System Function Impacts of Global Change on People Global Sustainability Research 37

Transition From:To: Disciplinary Research Disciplinary, Interdisciplinary & Transdisciplinary Strongest Emphasis on Natural Sciences Full Range of Sciences and Humanities 38

Grand Challenge #1: Forecasting Improve the usefulness of forecasts of future environmental conditions and their consequences for people 39

Grand Challenge #2: Observations Develop the observation systems needed to manage global and regional environmental change 40

Grand Challenge #3: Thresholds Determine how to anticipate, recognize, avoid and adapt to abrupt global environmental change 41

Determine how to anticipate, recognize, avoid and adapt to abrupt global environmental change (Lenton et al, 2008) 42

Grand Challenge #4: Responses Determine what institutional, economic and behavioural changes can enable effective steps toward global sustainability. 43

Grand Challenge #5: Innovation Encourage innovation (coupled with sound mechanisms for evaluation) in developing responses to achieve global sustainability 44

Future Global Change Research Support integrated science Ensure effective policy impact and communications Support stakeholder engagement, trans- disciplinary research approaches and co- production of knowledge Sufficient long-term research funding Foster collaborative research networks that are truly global in scope 45

A new 10 year initiative Deliver at global and regional scales the knowledge that societies need to effectively respond to global change while meeting economic and social goals; Coordinate and focus international scientific research to address the “Grand Challenges in Global Sustainability;” Engage a new generation of researchers in the social, economic, natural, health, and engineering sciences in global sustainability research. 46

Launching the Initiative