© OECD/IEA 2010 A better energy future Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist 19 September 2011

© OECD/IEA 2011 Outlook for world energy demand Without major policy change, we will face three major challenges: energy security, energy access and climate change Other renewables Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Coal Oil

© OECD/IEA 2011 People without access to modern energy Achieving universal access to modern energy by 2030 requires average annual investment of $48 billion 0 1 billion 2 billion 3 billion Other Developing Asia Sub-Saharan Africa People without access to electricity People without access to clean cooking facilities

© OECD/IEA 2011 Investment in energy access, 2009 Achieving universal access to modern energy by 2030 requires annual investment to increase by more than five-times – private sector needs to grow the most 14% 34% 30% 22% Bilateral Official Development Assistance Multilateral organisations Developing country governments Private sector finance Total = $9.1 billion

© OECD/IEA 2011 Implications of achieving universal modern energy access Universal modern energy access does not have any significant impact on energy or climate security World energy demand 2030 World energy demand in the central scenario World CO 2 emissions 2030 World CO 2 emissions in the central scenario (right axis) Additional CO 2 emissions in the Energy for All Case (right axis) 0.7% Additional energy demand in the Energy for All Case 1.1%

© OECD/IEA 2011 Global outlook for CO 2 emissions Gigatonnes Central Scenario +3.5°C To move towards 2°C we need modern renewables to more than double and energy intensity to be reduced by 40% by °C Scenario

© OECD/IEA 2011 Sustainable Energy for All Increase energy access  Universal access is achievable by 2030 – financing is key To support a move to a CO 2 path consistent with 2ºC  More than double the use of modern renewables by 2030  Reduce energy intensity by 40% by 2030 Rio+20 is a unique opportunity to set goals that help the world achieve …a better energy future