World Environment Center International Environmental Forum European Roundtable Paris, France October 28-29, 2002

Global and U.S. Energy Outlook Barry K. Worthington United States Energy Association October 28, 2002

Global Outlook Global Energy Resources are plentiful… …Issues surround their development, production, transportation and utilization. …Will financial, environmental, economic and political circumstance facilitate or restrain energy resource utilization?

By 2020, World Oil Demand is projected to increase by nearly 44 million b/d and of this increased demand: Almost 60% of the incremental demand will be in developing countries. 60% of the new demand will be in the transportation sector. 63% of the new demand will be supplied by OPEC members. 44% of the new demand is set to come from the Persian Gulf region.

“The question is not just whether there will be enough oil under the ground but whether the political, social, and economic environment in oil-producing regions will facilitate or hinder the development of this oil wealth…” Guy Caruso, U.S. EIA Administrator

#1 Global Energy Issue Energy Poverty – 1.5 – 2.0 Billion People lack Access to Commercial Energy Supplies.

U.S. Outlook The energy crisis is a policy crisis – system needs fixed – it does not work. Development and financing of infrastructure improvements won’t happen under existing system. National Energy Policy must remove barriers and provide incentives for both resource development and infrastructure modernization.

Increases in Energy Demand: Total Energy 32% Petroleum 33% Natural Gas 62% Coal 22% Electricity 45% Renewables 26%

Petroleum – 33% Increase Domestic crude production drops 0.7% year. Crude imports increase 1.6% per year. Petroleum product imports increase 4.6% per year. Still build 8-10 new refineries Increased efficiency of personal vehicles freight and aircraft.

Natural Gas – 62% Increase Demand increase from 21 to 35 quads. Double number of wells drilled to 50,000 per year. Requires capital investments of $40 billion per year in exploration and production. Requires $150 billion over 20 years in pipelines, both transmission and distribution.

Electricity – 45% Increase 400,000 megawatts of new capacity by – 1900 new units. A new plant a week for 20 years. Creation of seamless national grid. State and Federal barriers to reach goal.

At the same time – energy efficiency is expected to improve 1.6% per year – for a compounded one third decrease in energy intensity for each dollar of GDP.

#1 U.S. Energy Issue Attracting capital to industry – major public policy changes are needed – changes in legislation… regulation, competition, consumer patterns and public attitudes.

World Environment Center International Environmental Forum European Roundtable Paris, France October 28-29, 2002