NMME Tech Meeting 8 April 2011 NCEP, Room 209

Design of NMME for FY12+ Composition of each prediction system in the NMME? – CFSv2: 8468 (9-mon) (3-mon) (45-day)  10K years!! – Hindcast length (EUROSIP: ) relevance of evolving obs. sys. – Data assimilation: Does the best IC come from the best DA? – Initial conditions – Ensemble size Should we follow the EUROSIP template? – Provides consistency between NMME and IMME

Tim Stockdale 3 5 T159L62 / 1° :: 41 fcst / 11 hcst members 120 km (38L) / 1° :: 42 / 12 (GLOSEA - HadGEM3 / NEMO) 300 km (91L) / 1° :: 41 / 11

Tim Stockdale

Design of NMME for FY12+ What are the requirements for documentation of models and data assimilation systems? What are the metrics for success that we should use to monitor progress? How can we engage stakeholders (CPC, regional operations, others) on requirements? – NMME hindcasts – NMME forecast products How can we engage research community? – What’s in it for model development shops? – What support is needed for research on predictability and prediction? Where does skill come from? Where does uncertainty come from? What is process for evolution (model versions, MME strategy, etc.)? Governance model??? – Regular meetings (Robert’s Rules??)

Tim Stockdale