METHODOLOGICAL CONSTRAINS AND NEED IN THE AREA OF V&A ASSESSMENT IN THE CENTRAL AMERICAN REGION UNFCCC WORKSHOP ON METHODOLOGIES ON CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION / UNDP-GEF WORKSHOP FOR DEVELOPING AN ADAPTATION POLICY FRAMEWORK MONTREAL. CANADA JUNE 11-14, 2001 Emilio Sempris CATHALAC NPCC-ANAM Rep. of Panama cathalac.org

THE CENTRAL AMERICAN REGION

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE ADVERSE IMPACTS

INSTITUTIONAL ARRAGEMENT WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE UNFCCC

FINDINGS OF FIRST GENERATION V&A ASSESSMENTS ? (1) The Region, as a whole, is not adapted to current climate. Diferentiated vulnerarability to CC adverse impacts at the national and regional level, and within the region, there are populations with greatest risk to be impacted, those coincide with the areas where there is greatest geo-ecosystem, socioeconomic deterioration. Obsolete Met. and Stats Offices

FINDINGS OF FIRST GENERATION V&A ASSESSMENTS ? (2) There exists problems to idenfy vulnerable regions and population at risk. There are great uncertainties attached to the results of the assessment due to the avaliability and quality of climate system data. There is a research need in terms of V&A integrated assessment. Political willingness & stability issues that makes the region even more vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.

WHAT IS NEEDED ? (1) Standardization of climate change science ( e.i., Methodologies and benkmarks to select vulnerable region and populations at risk). Improvement of climate system data (not only T & P). Shorter term integrated impact assessments and adaptation options should be developed. Improvement in risk communication capacity. Establishment formal models for assessing uncertainties.

KEY ISSUES FOR THE NEXT GENERATION OF V&A ASSESSMENTS (1) proactive vs reactive adaptation responses The second generation methodologies should not look so hard into the future, so they do not fall too behind in the present Stakeholders participation V&A integrated assessment Costing impacts Insurance Funding

REGIONAL IMPACTS ON QUANTITY AND QUALITY OF WATER RESOURCES ANTHROPIC CAUSES WATER WITHOUT SANITARY THREATMENT ORGANIC CONTAMINANTS NON ORGANIC CONTAMINANTS Waste waters, excreta in rivers, streams, ground waters, impoundments, Panama Bay. VECTORS BREEDING SITES Artificial impoundments, ponds, reservoirs H2OH2O STORMS FLOODSDROUGHTS Indirect effects by absence Direct harmful effects (1) (5) (2) (5) (3) (4) (3) NATURAL CAUSES FLOODS CLIMATE RELATED CAUSES ? Droughts Direct harmful effects Storms & Hurricanes Indirect effects Non-organic contaminants Water without sanitation treatment Vector breading sites Organic contaminant WATER RESOURCES Artificial impoundment ANTROPHOGENIC CAUSES ? Waste waters, pollution in rivers, etc.

REGIONAL STAKEHOLDERS FOR WATER RESOURCES SECTOR IN THE REGION WATER RESOURCES IMWR TOURISM SUPPLY AND SANITATION NAVIGATION IRRIGATION HYDROPOWER AQUACULTURE RECREATION

KEY ISSUES FOR THE NEXT GENERATION OF V&A ASSESSMENTS (2) Costing impacts Insurance Funding

METHODOLOGICAL CONSTRAINS AND NEEDS IN THE AREA OF V&A ASSESSMENT IN THE CENTRAL AMERICAN REGION UNFCCC WORKSHOP ON METHODOLOGIES ON CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION / UNDP-GEF WORKSHOP FOR DEVELOPING AN ADAPTATION POLICY FRAMEWORK MONTREAL. CANADA JUNE 11-14, 2001 Emilio Sempris CATHALAC NPCC-ANAM Rep. of Panama cathalac.org