MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – April 2013 WP 8 MONITORING & FORECASTING CENTRE for North-West Shelf MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – Cork /16-17 April 2013

Work Package Main Objectives MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – April 2013 Main objectives: Developments for two Atlantic Margin Model (AMM) releases during the project AMM3.0 Development from start of project Operational implementation was planned for November 2013 Likely to be delayed to early 2014 due to critical operational changes Will be used in reanalysis AMM4.0 Implementation originally planned for May 2014 May be delayed beyond end of project Development of multi-model uncertainty estimates Development from May 2012 Implementation planned for Apr 2014

Partnership MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – April 2013 WP Leadership being handed over from Adrian Hines to Ed Blockley with effect from Annual Meeting WP8 Lead Met Office

System Evolution MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – April 2013 Objectives and achievements: AMM3.0 development: Multi-model ensemble development: V0 in place for SST, SSS, surface currents and transports V1 under development Main difficulties encountered Development of components to contribute to AMM3.0 has gone smoothly… ….but next need to bring these together into the upgrade package ItemStatus Bulk formulaeDevelopment complete Boundary schemeBaltic outflow from BAL MFC in testing River data from E-HYPEIn testing Update to new NOOS bathymetry Waiting for EMODNET ItemStatus Vertical coordinatesDevelopment complete Diffusion schemes update Smagorinsky coded coded; Griffies in testing PPM vert. / horiz. tracer advection In testing Improve ERSEM parameterisations Zooplankton prey selectivity tested NEMOVAR (SST only)Technical tests complete

Production Evolution MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – April 2013 Objectives No product changes planned during first year of project Only planned product update is: Upgrade vertical resolution of the hourly products Planned for November 2013 Minor changes Product name changes changes for V3 release netCDF4 being produced, with post-processing to netCDF3 DirectGetFile dropped in favour of new FTP

Improvements: use of bulk forcing (Alex Arnold, Met Office) Forcing using fluxes computed in NWP model being replaced by use of CORE bulk formulae Leads to cooler SSTs More scope for tuning Differences from OSTIA SST Annual mean for 2011 Direct Forcing CORE bulk formulae

Improvements: new stretching function for s-coordinates (John Siddorn / Rachel Furner, Met Office) New stretching function (Siddorn and Furner, 2013) to allow: – User specified top and bottom cell height – Flexibility to focus resolution near surface or seabed Increases diurnal temperature range in idealised flux experiment (% increase)/100 Reduces horizontal pressure gradient errors for an idealised seamount case with a realistic temperature stratification Original New

Improvements: testing of vertical mixing schemes (Maria Luneva, NOC) Distance (km) Scanfish data Canuto Kantha-Clayson Four different parameterizations of vertical mixing have been tested: - Turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) scheme - Generic Length Scale scheme with (k-ε) closure based on - Canuto (2001) structural functions - Kantha-Clayson, 1994 (KC94) - KC94 with Kantha 2004 constants Two year simulations compared with SCANFISH obs for 2001 in the North Sea Conclusions: - Standard TKE scheme is too diffusive - Canuto (2001) gives better pycnocline depth, but also very diffusive. - (k-ε) with KC94 gives sharper thermocline and better structure of horizontal fronts. Scanfish sections Isotherms along a Scanfish section

Improvements: ERSEM developments (Momme Butenschon, PML) ERSEM+SMP ERSEM Developments implemented in ERSEM Modelling the Stoichiometric Modulation of Predation (SMP, Mitra 2006) Modelling of zooplankton efficiency depending on nutritional status of prey Allows improved modelling of top-down control of phytoplankton community succession Successful representation of late summer blooms absent in previous model formulations Implementation of the Bacteria-OM submodel (Polimene et al., 2006) Sub-model to represent the cycling of organic matter through bacteria Enables explicit modelling of bacterial growth efficiency and the microbial carbon pump

Improvements: use of NEMOVAR for SST assimilation (James While, Met Office) Data assimilation has been upgraded to the latest version of the NEMOVAR 3D- VAR system A new parameterised error covariance scheme has been developed – Currently undergoing testing – Limits the spreading of information across temperature and salinity fronts – Parameterised correlation length scales can change daily, allowing some flow dependence Unlike statistically estimated correlations Correlation from NMC method + localisation Parameterised Correlation

Improvements: multi-model ensemble (MME) (Inga Golbeck / Frank Janssen, BSH) First version (V0) of MME in place for SST, SSS, surface currents and transports SST North Sea Ensembl e mean Standard deviation Ensemble mean of NOOS Color of arrows: Number of models included in the calculation of the MME Color of transects: Variation coefficient calculated for each transect (Brown 1998) CV ≤ Surface currents: Progressive Vector Diagrams (PVD)

First period summary and next steps MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – April 2013 First year progress Good progress with developments targeted for inclusion in AMM3.0 Most expected developments on target for inclusion Also good progress with development of multi-model ensemble V0 running V1 preparations well advanced First year issues AMM3.0 implementation to be delayed due to operational change constraints Knock-on impact on subsequent implementations Second year priorities Bring together component changes to build AMM3.0 Operational implementation in early 2014 Use in reanalysis later this year On-going development of multi-model ensemble Implementation of V1 in April 2014