Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow

2 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) COSMO is Cool! Impressive amount of work is being done! Forecast quality is getting better and better (albeit user expectations are possibly rising even quicker …)!

3 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Relative value – Alert level „yellow“ useful + - useless … against false alarms insensitive … sensitive … (03h, 06h and 12h accumulations, cut-off +03h)

4 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) COSMO is Cool! Impressive amount of work is being done! Forecast quality is getting better and better (albeit user expectations are possibly rising even quicker …)! However: Potential synergies (communication, coordination, cooperation) are maybe not fully exploited.  Can we make COSMO even cooler?

5 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Science Plan: Aim “… summarising the current challenges, speculating on future directions in an educated manner offering concrete proposals (  Priority Projects) how to meet these given the limited resources.” Timeframe: expected developments in the next 5 yrs with an outlook out to 10 yrs ahead.

6 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Science Plan: Long-term strategy (~2015) Stay at the high end of operational NWP model resolution: very high resolution (1 km) short to very-short time-scale deterministic as well as probabilistic (coarser?) New: environment modelling Also: climate modelling

7 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Science Plan: Implications (I) Assimilation: appropriate scheme for highly non-linear convective-scale processes ensemble assimilation system Dynamics and numerics: steep slopes closer coupling between the dynamical core an the parameterisations Physics basic assumptions / approximations still valid? unified schemes (e.g., turbulence / shallow convection) 3D schemes?

8 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Science Plan: Implications (II) Ensembles: appropriate perturbations for ICs, BCs, and representation of model errors predictability Interpretation and Applications interpretation Verification appropriate verification scores, deterministic as well as probabilistic

9 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Priority Projects (PPs) CDC: Conservative dynamical core COLOBOC: Consolidation of Lower Boundary Conditions CONSENS: CONSolidation of COSMO ENSemble KENDA: Km-Scale Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation Sat-Cloud: Assimilation of satellite data with clouds and over land UTCS: Towards Unified Turbulence-Shallow Convection Scheme VERSUS 2: VERification System Unified Survey

10 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) PP CDC: Conservative dynamical core conservation! finite volumes, which may also prove to be beneficial for steep slopes

11 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) PP Sat-Cloud: Assimilation of satellite data with clouds and over land Extend 1D-Var efforts (cloud-free, over the sea) to cloudy areas and land points Should help to improve the humidity initial conditions.

12 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) PP VERSUS 2: VERification System Unified Survey Extension of VERSUS Implementation and use in all COSMO member states

13 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) PP CONSENS: CONSolidation of COSMO ENSemble Merge COSMO-LEPS and COSMO-SREPS to obtain an ensemble system for days 2-5. Boundary conditions for COSMO-DE-EPS

14 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) PP COLOBOC: Consolidation of Lower Boundary Conditions Merge all (well advanced) activities related to the lower boundary condition and consolidate these developments external parameters TERRA (coupled, stand-alone, SCM) snow urban module mosaic/tile

15 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Priority Tasks (PTs) PP SPRT (“Support Activities”) has been transformed into PT “Support Activities” Consolidation of cumulus parameterisation scheme(s); coordination of efforts within WG 3 as well as task (v) of PP UTCS Consolidation of post-processing routines Assessment of humidity bias

16 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Planning and reporting cycle planning (PPs, PTs): driven by Science Plan responsibility: SMC (WG coordinators & PP leaders) initiation: a month ahead of the COSMO User Seminar continuously: work packages (WPs) within the WGs reporting (PPs, PTs, WPs): 4 times per year (main (scientific) reporting at General Meeting and User Seminar, intermediate reporting by end of Nov & May)

17 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Communication: COSMO User Seminar early March (e.g., ), in Langen (Germany) ideal opportunity for workshops for PPs (and WGs) (e.g. on 11/12/ )

18 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) More on communication, coordination, and cooperation … “What can COSMO do for me?” Let us (WG coordinators, PP leaders, SPM, STC) know … We will try our best! “What can I do for COSMO?” Let COSMO (i.e., your WG / WG coordinator, your PP / PP leader, the SPM, the STC) know (what you do) … Please try your best!

19 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) More on communication, coordination, and cooperation …

20 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) Let’s make COSMO even cooler! Let’s start right here and now: in Cracow!

21 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch) New Priority Projects (PPs) COLOBOC: Consolidation of Lower Boundary Conditions Sat-Cloud: Assimilation of satellite data with clouds and over land CDC: Conservative dynamical core CONSENS: CONSolidation of COSMO ENSemble VERSUS 2: VERification System Unified Survey