Economic Outlook: Continued Growth: How Much Longer? San Rafael, CAOctober 29, 2015 Robert Eyler, Ph.D. CEO and Chief Economist Marin Economic Forum 1

Four considerations toward 2016 Global growth downgrade: so what? American monetary policy: Fed Watching big time California’s economy: the US economic engine for now Regional issues – North Bay plugging along, no real separators yet – Commercial space demand wave coming? – Decent conditions for housing, more from CAR later 2www.marineconomicforum.org

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Source: BEA ( 4 GDP Change, Annualized, Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Q2 4

Non-Residential Investment, US (% change 2005$, SA), 1990Q1 – 2015Q2 Source: BEA ( 5

6 Residential Investment, US (% change 2005$, SA), 1990Q1 – 2015Q2 Source: BEA (

7 Source: Federal Reserve Board

8 GDP Growth of CA and rest of US economies, 2005 – 2014 Index = 100 in 2005 Q1

Marin County Real personal income projected to grow 2.5 percent between 2015 and 2018; Inflation likely to rise faster than 2.5 percent per year; Marin County has median housing prices over $1.1 million; Marin County’s payroll employment shows continued growth into 2016; Marin County added 5,000 payroll jobs between September 2014 and September 2015; Commercial properties have reduced vacancies, but commercial rents have remained steady at $2.60 per sq ft.; and Rental home prices in San Rafael may be $3,000 per month for a two-bedroom apartment.

10 Personal Income less Government Transfers, Actual and Forecasted Inflation-Adjusted (Real), 2009$, Marin County, Thousands of $

Unemployment Rates (%), Marin County, Bay Area and California: 2000–2018

Non-Farm Employment Levels, , Index (2011 = 100)

Median Home Price Growth, Single-Family Residential Real Estate Since the Bottom, February 2011, % Growth

Commercial Real Estate Pricing Comparison, $ per Square Foot Class A and B Office Space, 2002–2015

Toward 2016 and Beyond Europe and China: Global Foci Monetary Policy: the watch continues… California continues to grow and attract people and businesses The North Bay economic future – Wealth versus income: tourism  global living area – Good for housing demand, strange for socioeconomic concerns What is normal?

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