1 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Update to COPC 4 – 5 Nov 2015 Dave McCarren, NUOPC DPM

2 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability 2 Agenda  National ESPC Update  NUOPC UEO Committee Update  NUOPC CMA Committee Update  Questions and Discussion

3 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability. The National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC) 3

The National Earth System Prediction Capability ESPC 4 National ESPC Update ESG Principals +1 meeting hosted by Navy 5 May 2015 Action: Revise the ESPC MOA and NUOPC Charter and create a new National ESPC MOA. Include recommendations from Decision Brief on Management Structure/Plan, and Personnel Issues. Work with climate community to help define what is operational for products to support strategic decision making, Define components that will be part of National ESPC - spiral 1 Status: Draft National ESPC MOA created by Staff and briefed at 15 Oct ESG Meeting. MOA vs MOU, or Charter issue being worked, and no National ESPC personnel decisions made Draft National ESPC paper for BAMS sent to ESG Principals for feedback and co-authorship approval. Staff revising draft National ESPC to host session at 2016 AMS Meeting; 13 Jan 0830 – 1000 CST ESG meeting 15 Oct Action: Create a whitepaper to examine the options to relate National ESPC to the OSTP CENRS Sub-Committee structure.

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 5 UEO Committee Update

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 6 Unified Ensemble Operations NUOPC metrics from NCEP, FNMOC, and AFWA briefed at 15 Oct ESG meeting ½ Degree Data Exchange Upgrade delayed to late fall 2015 due to dedicated comm line issues between CMC and NCEP NUOPC/NAEFS mini workshop on Feb –Face to face meeting of the Co-Chairs of the UEO Committee –Agenda focused on the development of NUOPC that includes data exchange (of global and wave ensemble data, post process, ensemble week 3&4 forecast and future plans. –Research following a concern by FNMOC over the timing of the CMC raw ensemble data resulted in NCEP starting raw data processing 90 minutes earlier, much closer to real time and bias corrected data. AF moved up operational GEPS processing to take advantage of this; GEPS suite had 5,000 unique users and about 4M product hits in the last 12 months

The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 7 NUOPC Verification Metrics

NH CRP scores NH RMS errors NA CRP scores NA RMS errors 5-day forecast for surface temperature

Northern Hemisphere 500hPa height: Latest 3-month winter scores: CRPS skill score RMS error and ratio of RMS error / spread Anomaly correlation All other regions/scores could be seen from: UOPC/NUOPC_bc_sum2015.html UOPC/NUOPC_bc_sum2015.html NH CRPS skill scores NH anomaly correlation 500hPa Height NH RMS errors

Summer 2011 Winter 11/12 Summer 2015 Winter 14/15

Day-5 Continue Rank Probability Score NUOPC summer 30-day CRP score from 16m to 13m = 20% NUOPC winter 30-day CRP score from 25m to 22m = 12%

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win NUOPC Ensemble Performance 1 Jun 2015 – 24 Aug 2015 Mr. Bob Craig 16 WS/WXN

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win Brier Skill Score Total Cloud > 80% 13 Total Cloud > 80% - looking at the CONUS domain, skill is indicated out to about 48hrs. We expect skill to improve once we switch ground truth to an improved (more timely) World Wide Cloud Analysis.

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win Brier Skill Score Wind Speed > 25kts 14 For wind speeds >= 25kts, northern hemisphere have significant skill out to 144 hours. Below, red line above the diagonal means show GEPS is under-forecasting the event 25kts

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win Northern Hemisphere Wind Speed 15 The spread ratio for wind speed was greater than one for the entire period (under-dispersive) with NAVGEM and GFS members both being over-dispersive and GEM members also under-dispersive. GEM members are under-dispersive while NAVGEM and GFS members are over-dispersive

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win Northern Hemisphere Temperature 16 The spread ratio approached 1 over the summer which preferred The spread was relatively flat throughout the forecast period, not overly under or over dispersive

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win Ensemble Mean Northern Hemi -2 Meter Temps 17 Ensemble mean in solid red. GFS members in dotted green, NAVGEM members in dotted blue, and GEM members in dotted purple. The solid green is the GFS control member and the solid purple is the CMC control member. We do not currently receive a NAVGEM control member. GEM members all show a cold bias while NAVGEM members show a warm bias leading to a warm bias in the ensemble mean. Not sure why NAVGEM members didn’t plot after 192hrs.

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win Ensemble Mean Northern Hemi -10 Meter Winds 18 GFS had the lowest errors and NAVGEM had the highest GFS and NAVGEM both had a high bias

Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win Summary The GEPS ensemble system is performing as expected Brier skill scores for wind speed indicated the GEPS ensemble has significant skill out to 144hrs Total cloud had skill out to 48hrs (not significant). A switch to a more timely analysis should improve these scores The GEPS ensemble spread score tends to be greater than 1 with the mean RMSE > member standard deviation, indicating the ensemble members are under- dispersed which is a common ensemble issue Ensemble mean forecasts have lower errors than the members which is expected for correctly designed ensembles 19

FNMOC NUOPC Verification

500 hPa Height Verification vs UKMET Analysis

Surface wind verification CRPS Forecast vs Observations

Surface wind verification Spread-Skill Spread-skill was calculated incorrectly for a while so the plots for the longer time series cannot be made Forecast vs Obs Forecast vs Analysis

Cloud Cover Verification Tau 120 Tau 024

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 25 CMA Committee Update

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC NUOPC Common Model Architecture ESPS paper entitled “The Earth System Prediction Suite: Toward a Coordinated U.S. Modeling Capability” accepted by BAMS with minor revisions. CMA Committee drafting new whitepaper entitled “Using the ESPS” to describe a set of issues and actions needed to increase the usability of the ESPS and utilize these components in coupled and ensemble applications. PI Group delivered a working Physics Driver prototype with a common physics interface to GFS physics, in June 2015, to address NGGPS requirement to begin testing how it works and use in the selection of a new Dynamc Core, using a common set of physics. NGGPS Physics team providing feedback CSC Group completed review of API Utility Routines in NUOPC Layer Reference Manual for ESMF v release in Dec 2015

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 27 Questions & Discussion