WABASH NATIONAL CORPORATION (NYSE:WNC) Presented on Dec, 8 2015 Investment Managers Sashikanth (Sash) Yenika Siwei (Lerissa) Li Vanditha M Ravindranath
Agenda Screening Criteria Company Introduction Segment Profiles Industry Overview Key Macroeconomic Drivers Comparable Valuation Financial Analysis Financial Projections DCF Valuation Technical Analysis Recommendation
Screening Criteria Market Cap < $1B Industry – NOT(Energy, Financials, IT, Healthcare) Market Cap < $1B Piotroski Score > 5 3 Year Avg. Revenue Growth > 10% P/E < 15x P/BV < 2x Current Share Price < 1.2*52wk low
Company Introduction WABASH NATIONAL CORPORATION Founded in 1985; 2014 Revenue: $1.86B Designs, manufactures and markets standard and customized truck and tank trailers, and related transportation equipment WABASH NATIONAL CORPORATION Commercial Trailer Products Diversified Products Retail Composites Aviation & Truck Equip. Tank Trailer Process Systems Source: Annual report 2014
Segment Profile: Commercial Trailer SALES & GROSS PROFIT MARGINS 2014 Sales: $1.3B 2014 new trailer shipments: 53,550 Portfolio: Dry vans, refrigerated vans, platform trailers Industry leader in van and platform trailer manufacturing In USD m PRODUCT MIX END MARKETS Dramatic margin improvement since 2010 Source: Investor Presentation August 2015, November 2015 and Annual reports
Segment Profile: Diversified Products SALES & GROSS PROFIT MARGINS 2014 Sales: $0.5B Higher growth (81% - CAGR 2010-2014 and higher margin businesses Portfolio: Sanitary, chemical trailers, aircraft refueler, vertical silos, portable storage containers Possess industry leading stainless steel trailer brands: Walker, Brenner, Bulk In USD m PRODUCT MIX END MARKETS Diverse Products and End Markets Source: Investor Presentation August 2015, November 2015 and Annual reports
Segment Profile: Retail 2014 Sales: $0.2B Dealership model, selling new and used trailers, aftermarket parts, and maintenance and repair services Expansion into new markets with mobile service and third party maintenance SALES & GROSS PROFIT MARGINS In USD m PRODUCT MIX COMPANY-OWNED RETAIL LOCATIONS Source: Investor Presentation August 2015, November 2015 and Annual reports
Overview - Truck Trailer Manufacturing KEY PRODUCTS MAJOR PLAYERS Flatbed trailer Refrigerated trailers Freight trailers LIFECYCLE OUTLOOK Mature stage of the industry’s life cycle Slight product saturation has been reached Trailer with fuel saving technologies for heavy duty trucks will spur new sales during the next five years Industry will face cost pressures from product development Source: IBISWorld
Porter’s Five Analysis Rivalry High: high price competition, lack of products differentiation Bargain Power of Supplier Moderate: volatile price of steel and aluminum Bargain Power of Buyer Moderate: high price competition Threats of New Entrants Moderate: high initial capital cost, limited access to competitive raw material price Threats of Substitution Low: no substitute for trailer Source: IBISWorld
Truck Trailer Manufacturing Industry Drivers Key Economics Drivers Price of crude oil Total trade value Price of Steel Supply Industries Aluminum manufacturing Iron & Steel manufacturing Demand Industries Local freight trucking Long-distance freight trucking Tank & refrigeration trucking Truck Trailer Manufacturing Source: IBISWorld
Economic Drivers Increase in the total trade value will lead to increased demand for truck trailer manufacturing Increasing price of steel and crude oil may pose potential threat for the industry Source: IBISWorld
Demand Industry Growing demand industries revenue will lead to increased demand for truck trailer manufacturing industry Source: IBISWorld
Comparable Companies Provide mechanical, mechatronic and electronic technologies for braking, stability and transmission automation systems for commercial truck, bus and trailer manufacturers Revenue: $2.6B Market Cap: $5.74B Provide axle, brake and suspension solutions to commercial truck, trailer, bus and coach and off-highway machinery manufacturers Revenue: $3.8B Market Cap: $0.8B
Comparable Valuation Source: Bloomberg, Capital IQ, Annual Reports
Activity Ratios & Profitability Ratios The Value of Profit Margin is high due to the income tax benefit that they received in 2012 Source: Annual reports 2014, 2013, 2012
Profitability & Leverage Ratios PROFITABILITY RATIOS LEVERAGE RATIOS The Value of ROE is very high due to the income tax benefit received in 2012 Adjusted Net Margin is the value of Net Profit Margin had the tax benefit not been availed Source: Annual reports 2014, 2013, 2012
DuPont Analysis & Greenblatt Ratios This was considered as NM as the value was an outlier 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Tax Burden 118% 99% 217% 60% 62% Interest Burden NM 77% 57% 75% 80% Operating Profit Margin (2%) 2% 6% 7% Asset Turnover 3x 2x Leverage ROE 11% 51% 16% 17% GREENBLATT RATIOS Source: Annual reports 2014, 2013, 2012, Ycharts
I/S PROJECTION Source: Annual Reports and Investor update Nov-2015
WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL KEY INPUTS KEY INPUTS WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL Source: Yahoo! Finance
Present Value of Equity DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW Present Value of Equity SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Source: Annual report, industry report
Technical Analysis Source: Yahoo! Finance – Dec 7, 2015
Recommendation: BUY 500 shares at Market Price Expanding Margins Increased Share Repurchase Strategic Acquisitions Entry to diversified growth markets and less cyclical industries Recommendation: BUY 500 shares at Market Price Target Price: $14.77 Current Stock Price:$11.55 DCF Valuation: $13.63 Relative Valuation: $19.31 Stock Price Stock Price Global Economic Weakness Rise in raw materials & competition Stringent Regulations DIVERSIFICATION OF EXISTING PORTFOLIO Source: Yahoo! Finance