1 May 2008Page 1 Model collaboration, coordination and… the Model Web for ecological forecasting

1 May 2008Page 2 From Yesterday Need to assess impacts of change…  “A new generation of integrated modeling is needed” (Tony Janetos)  “Major investment in impact models is needed”  “Need integrated research” (Ex: biofuels/food/crop)  Need “Model comparisons…multi-model analyses…coordinated agenda”  “Need to develop an infrastructure”  “Need to investigate alternative futures”  “Need a new NASA program”

1 May 2008Page 3 Overview  Bring people together  Review Model Web concept  Discuss strawperson approach to doing it  Focus on: Initial Framework Infrastructure Right models? Right people?

1 May 2008Page 4 Current Modeling Environment  Very limited model-model communication Technical and especially non-technical barriers  Response Try a “web of models” analogous to the WWW Can’t just plan and build it Facilitate and encourage

1 May 2008Page 5 Demonstration System Global Climate Dataset Regional Climate Dataset Species Distribution Model Species distribution TOPS

1 May 2008Page 6 System Growth Global Climate Dataset Regional Climate Dataset Fire Model TOPS Species distribution Species Distribution Model

1 May 2008Page 7 System Growth Global Climate Dataset Regional Climate Dataset Fire Model Landscape Model TOPS Species distribution Fire risk, Intensity, etc Possible Landscapes Species Distribution Model

1 May 2008Page 8  Distributed network of interoperating models (and datasets and sensors)  Using web services  Models are harmonized  Multi-disciplinary scope Model Web: Year Vision (1/2)

1 May 2008Page 9 Model Web: Year Vision (2/2)  Grows organically within framework of broad goals and data exchange standards  Models and datasets maintained, operated, and served independently  Web access provided to researchers, managers, policy makers, public

1 May 2008Page 10 Model and Data Space Model A Model B Model C Dataset 1 Dataset 2 Model D Model E Model F Dataset 3 Dataset 4 Model G

1 May 2008Page 11 Model Web"Traditional" Harmonization of components a lot of work Communication by web servicesCommunication by API/system calls Dynamic, interoperable system of systemsStatic, isolated, integrated systems Loosely coupled componentsTightly coupled components Distributed system lacking centralized controlCentralized system controlled by developers Open system. New components added without permissionClosed system. New components only added by system developers Organic and opportunistic growth, similar to WWW (but guided)All growth planned High level of component reuse—once harmonized with other components a component is available to everyone Low level of reuse; once harmonized with other components remains within the tightly coupled system Generally high level of data sharingGenerally lower level of sharing; focus is on specific questions and tightly coupled components so that only final products are shared Indeterminate growthDeterminate growth as defined by developers Long term evolutionary process that gradually converges on higher levels of interoperability Shorter term development process with complete interoperability at delivery Leads to a shared modeling infrastructure accessible by allLeads to isolated model systems available to a few Untrained users may misuse model or outputsMisuse rarer because users and developers are typically the same Unsuitable for systems that require high levels of data exchange between components High levels of data exchange less of a problem due to co-location of components

1 May 2008Page 12 Next Step  Think about an initial “framework infrastructure”  Expand demo system  Include additional basic components

1 May 2008 Strawperson Initial Framework Infrastructure Landscape Ecotype Tree density Biomass Disturbance Succession Composition Species Distribution Fire Risk Frequency Intensity Behavior Emissions Environment (eg, TOPS) Carbon Accounting Allocation Flows Sequestration Ecosystem Services Species Abundance All kinds of data Invasive Species Community-level Biodiversity (Ferrier) Role TBD Public Health Socio-economic

1 May 2008Page 14 Selection Criteria  Model developer is engaged  Model developer is broad thinker and shares vision of a model infrastructure  Models have potential for harmonization

1 May 2008Page 15 Model or CategoryModelerModel information NASA TOPSRama Nemani (NASA)Environmental information past, present, future, including temperature, rainfall, radiation, LAI, soil moisture, stream outflow, ET, vegetation stress, primary productivity GEOSS GBIF IP3 demo system Stefano Nativi (Italian National Research Council) Uses OpenModeler and GBIF to produce range maps based on the provided climate Community modelsSimon Ferrier (CSIRO, Australia) TBD CarbonYiqi Luo (Univ of Kansas)TBD FireTBDMany options; Nativi has a Mediterranean model, TOPS will likely add an emissions model; USFS has many models; risk, intensity, frequency, coverage, emissions are of interest Landscapeeg, LANDIS--Rob Scheller (Conservation Biology Institute) LANDIS has a fire module as well as other components that are loosely coupled and available as DLLs. Should also check into the Ecosystem Demography model (Paul Moorcroft, George Hurtt) SocioeconomicRobert Costanza's group (Gund Inst for Env Economics) Ecosystem services, predicted landcover change; roads; etc Public healthEPA--Gary Foley’s groupTBD Ecosystem servicesEPA—Rick Linthurst’s group, with John Johnston TBD Invasive speciesJeff Morisette and John Schnase (NASA) NASA Invasive Species Forecasting System; predicts likely spread of invasives

1 May 2008Page 16 Related Topic  Chris Field and Modeling Breakout group Coordination in assessing impact of change Would enhance application of model results Form a working group?

1 May 2008Page 17 Next Steps  Expand demo system to Initial framework system  Finalize models and participants  Submit proposals?  Plan Model Web Workshop  Impact modeling WG for coordination?

1 May 2008Page 18 Principle of Gradual Convergence  Vision cannot be achieved quickly Gradually converged upon  Cannot be achieved completely Not necessary  Follow path of organic growth Organized around general framework Facilitated by tools and technologies Lubricated by interested sponsors

1 May 2008Page 19 Barriers to Interoperability  Data format  Data terminology  Missing data  Temporal/spatial gridding  Standards  Sponsor goals  Model purpose  Effort required  Proprietariness  Acceptance  Cultural differences } } Technical Non- technical

1 May 2008Page 20 Larger infrastructure Global Climate Public Health Human Population Density and Distribution Socioeconomic Poverty Technology Economy Behavior Regional Environmental Change Habitat Alteration Deforestation/Disturbance Agricultural Intensification Urbanization Fire Carbon Landscape Ecosystem Services Species & Habitat Range Abundance Functions Interactions Local/Regional Climate These interact All kinds of data Includes vectors & hosts