Climate–Carbon Modelling, Assimilation & Prediction Wolfgang Knorr, QUEST NCEO/Carbon Fusion Sheffield, 29 February 2008.

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Presentation transcript:

Climate–Carbon Modelling, Assimilation & Prediction Wolfgang Knorr, QUEST NCEO/Carbon Fusion Sheffield, 29 February 2008

Climate–Carbon Modelling, Assimilation & Prediction (CCMAP) QUEST project contracted to CEH, PI Eleanor Blyth 30 months from ~April 2008 linking CCDAS activities with UKMO and U Exeter

QUEST Goals improved understanding and knowledge on... the pattern, mechanisms and prognosis for land and ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 information for policy makers concerning the... environmental consequences of different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions

CCMAP Goals to quantify the climate-carbon cycle feedback to provide quality assurance for the carbon cycle component of Earth System Models

CO 2, warming trajectories based on C4MIP and “G8” emissions scenario (50% cut by 2050) [from House et al., in prep.] CCMAP Rationale Large uncertainty in carbon-cycle feedback is policy relevant

CCMAP Work Plan Coordination: CEH Wallingford (Eleanor Blyth) Synthesis of data sets for testing global carbon cycle models, development of tool box for testing (WP1) Development of leading global carbon cycle inverse modelling system based on Bayesian parameter estimation, application to estimating climate–carbon cycle feedback strength (WP2) Demonstration study for similar parameter estimation framework with coupled carbon cycle–climate model (WP3)

CCMAP WP1 flux tower data, FACE experiments, methane, NOx, VOCs to liaise with NCEO/CLASSIC, JULES science leaders one PDRA at Wallingford, funded 50% from CCMAP, 50% from UKMO

CCMAP WP2 goal is extension of current CCDAS (using BETHY) add ocean component (Andy Ridgwell, David Marshall) develop full prognostic capability until 2100 small support for Exeter with adjoint JULES 1 PDRA at U Bristol, 1 PDRA at U Oxford

CCMAP WP3 build 4-D var assimilation system for simple Earth system model (probably “planet simulator”) focus is on technical issues of assimilation led by Marko Scholze (QUEST) with sub-contract to FastOpt

CCMAP Synergies general QUEST funding for JULES CEH (+NCEO?) interest in benchmarking system for JULES land surface model Exeter University/UKMO to develop adjoint of JULES and implement in CCDAS platform, with QUEST support (GWR Fellowship project) QUEST FireMAFS project (Martin Wooster) QUEST funding for visit of Pierre Friedlingstein at Bristol

NCEO-CCMAP complementarity atmospheric O 2 /N 2 (QUEST Fellowship – Andrew Manning) ocean carbon cycle component of CCDAS satellite atmospheric CO 2 model evaluation (“tool box”)? assimilation of eddy flux data?