Balancing outcomes and making transparent trade offs Dr Liz Wedderburn AgResearch & Colleagues Rural Futures conference 24 th Sept 2009

What are we attempting to balance? Social Cultural Economic Environmental Quality of Life Source Choosing Regional Futures 2007

Today’s presentation Describe the system properties that underpin agriculture Discuss the knowledge sets required to achieve co- existence of outcomes Outline some tensions resulting from system properties Give examples of balancing outcomes at farm, catchment and community level

Coupling of Human Capability and Natural Capital is New Zealand’s Competitive Advantage

Ecosystem processes Biogeochemical hydrological Resources Economic activity Interface of high tension Sustainable Development from a natural capital base Functions for human well being: food, clean air, water, waste assimilation, biodiversity, cultural Leadership Governance Capacity

Knowledge Systems required to operate from a natural capital base The limits of ecosystem properties and behaviour: to set targets Ecosystem functions: –what are they? –how do we protect them? and –how does land management impact on them? The value of natural capital: how do we include in assessments? What are the skills, capability, institutions that couple human behaviour and ecosystem behaviour?

Tensions caused by system properties “wicked problems” Distance in space and time: –Impacts of decisions –Nutrient flow lag –Policy requirements; Research time lines Fast and slow cycles: fast societal change; slow biological response How can you manage what you cannot see? We do not have exact science knowledge No simple cause and effect instead we deal with dynamic coupled systems where relationships and systemic interactions defy ‘silver bullet’ solutions

Some attempts to balance the outcomes

Nutrient balance Optimum soil test values Nitrification inhibitors Low-rate effluent irrigation Wintering/spring pads Herd Homes Effluent storage Irrigation Bunds On Farm Technological Fixes Tool Box Source Monaghan 2005

Economic and environmental performance of a feedpad and a winter crop system for a dairy farm Source Monaghan et al 2005

AnimalsFert N $ GM per ha N leached kg N/ha/yr $ GM per kg N leached Steers0N Ewes 140% lambing 0N Designing farm systems to balance nutrient emissions and financial returns Source Ledgard pers com

System Reconfiguring, Catchment Land use Pine on steep land Stock policy change Riparian protection Fragment restoration Spaced Poplar planting

IndicatorOld SystemBenchmark value New system Soil fertility (Olsen phosphate) Pasture production (t DM/ha/y) Sediment export (t/ha/y) Phosphorus export (kg/ha/y) Indigenous plant diversity (# spp per plot) Lambing (% weaned) Cattle gross margin ($/stock unit) Annual farm surplus ($/ha grazed) Source Dodd et al 2007

Informed Consensus Transition cost too high Future institutions: Catchment Company Removal of property boundaries to design an extensive whole farm system To meet community goals

Sustainability of What, Why and for Whom ? A community conversation Social Cultural Economic Environmental Quality of Life Source Choosing Regional Futures 2007

Community Sustainability Outcomes EnvironmentEconomyQuality of LifeCulture/ Identity Participation and Equity ValuesAirProductivitySafety and security IdentityEquity Land and soil ProsperityHealthCultureCivic participation WaterEmploymentPaid workTreaty of Waitangi LandscapeInfrastructureRecreation & leisure Political/social trust BiodiversityTourismKnowledge and skills Human rights BiosecuritySocial connections International treaties Kaitiakitanga /stewardship Housing

OutcomesEnvironmentEconomicQuality of lifePolitics/ Culture StakeholdersGreen= Better Red=worseBlue=does not matter Yellow= moderate Scientists Dairy Industry NGO Urban Evaluating impact of capping nutrient emissions

Outcomes Differing perspectives exposed Makes transparent the judgements and reasoning Identifies where co-existence and trade offs exist Enables collective learning Takes a systems approach to identifying unintended consequences Exposes who wins, who looses, who cares Mobilises science knowledge

Conclusions Multiple simultaneous approaches are required to balance outcomes Collective learning and building adaptive capacity within a systems context is essential Leadership is necessary to have an informed conversation at local-national scale about what we want to sustain Science informs