Chicago Crime Data Project (CCDP) John Mounce & Billy Joe Mills Typical Chicago Criminal

Chicago Crime Blog All past and future findings made by the Mounce-Mills team will be posted at Data downloads, maps, & graphs galore!

Hypothesis 1: Violent Crimes and Economic Wealth Hypothesis Violent crimes are more common in economically poor neighborhoods than in economically wealthy neighborhoods. Null Hypothesis Violent crimes are no more common in economically poor neighborhoods than in economically wealthy neighborhoods.

Hypothesis 1: Poor neighborhoods have more violent crime than rich neighborhoods About 31% of the variance in violent crime is explained by household income levels For every $1 increase in household income, the 2005 Violent Crime Index is reduced by units.

Hypothesis 1: Poor neighborhoods have more violent crime than rich neighborhoods For every increase in household income by $10,000, violent crime lowers by 7.7%.

Hypothesis 1: Poor neighborhoods have more violent crime than rich neighborhoods Violent crimes are more common in economically poor neighborhoods than in economically wealthy neighborhoods.

Hypothesis 1: Poor neighborhoods have more violent crime than rich neighborhoods

Hypothesis 1: Violent Crimes and Economic Wealth

Hypothesis 2: Rich neighborhoods have more property crime than poor neighborhoods Reporter: Why do you rob banks? Willie Sutton: Because that’s where the money is.

Hypothesis 2: Rich neighborhoods have more property crime than poor neighborhoods

Hypothesis 3: Neighborhoods with higher levels of violent crime have higher levels of property crime About 49% of the variance in property crime is explained by violent crime For every 1 unit increase in the Violent Crime Index 2005, the Property Crime Index 2005 increases by units

Hypothesis 3: Neighborhoods with higher levels of violent crime have higher levels of property crime Property Crime Violent Crime

Hypothesis 3: Neighborhoods with higher levels of violent crime have higher levels of property crime About 58% of the variance in property crime is explained by violent crime and household income

Hypothesis 4: Neighborhoods with higher levels of racial diversity have lower violent crime The Mounce Diversity Index explains about 40% of the variance in the Violent Crime Index 2005

Hypothesis 4: Neighborhoods with higher levels of racial diversity have lower violent crime For every 10% increase in the Mounce Diversity Index, violent crime decreases by 4%

Hypothesis 4: Neighborhoods with higher levels of racial diversity have lower violent crime The Herfindahl Diversity Index explains about 36% of the variance in the Violent Crime Index 2005

Hypothesis 4: Neighborhoods with higher levels of racial diversity have lower violent crime For every 10% increase in the Herfindahl Diversity Index, violent crime decreases by 5.1%

Hypothesis 5: Neighborhoods with higher levels of racial diversity have lower property crime The Mounce Diversity Index explains about 9% of the variance in the Property Crime Index 2005

Hypothesis 5: Neighborhoods with higher levels of racial diversity have lower property crime For every 10% increase in the Mounce Diversity Index, property crime decreases by 2.4%

Hypothesis 5: Neighborhoods with higher levels of racial diversity have lower property crime The Herfindahl Diversity Index explains about 9% of the variance in the Property Crime Index 2005

Hypothesis 5: Neighborhoods with higher levels of racial diversity have lower property crime For every 10% increase in the Herfindahl Diversity Index, property crime decreases by 3.1%

Problems with Diversity Index Violent Crime

Hypothesis 6: Violent Crime and Racial Populations For every 10% increase in the White Population, violent crime decreases by 4.37%

Hypothesis 6: Violent Crime and Racial Populations For every 10% increase in the Hispanic Population, violent crime decreases by 2.77%

Hypothesis 6: Violent Crime and Racial Populations For every 10% increase in the Asian Population, violent crime decreases by 6.32%

Hypothesis 6: Violent Crime and Racial Populations For every 10% increase in the Black Population, violent crime increases by 3.67%

Hypothesis 6: Violent Crime and Racial Populations

Hypothesis 7: Low income neighborhoods have more crime at night

Hypothesis 8: Neighborhoods with higher levels of education have lower violent crime

For every 10% increase in the Education Index, violent crime decreases by 3.64%

Hypothesis 9: Neighborhoods with higher levels of education have lower property crime

Hypothesis 10: Neighborhoods with higher male populations have more violent crime

Hypothesis 11: Neighborhoods with higher male populations have more property crime

Hypothesis 12: Neighborhoods with a higher age proportion have higher violent crime

Hypothesis 13: Neighborhoods with a higher age proportion have higher property crime

Hypothesis 14: Neighborhoods with a higher 0-11 age proportion have lower violent crime

Hypothesis 15: Neighborhoods with a higher 0-11 age proportion have lower property crime

Hypothesis 16: Neighborhoods with higher youth populations have more violent crime

Hypothesis 17: Neighborhoods with higher youth populations have more property crime

Hypothesis 18: Neighborhoods with a greater proportion of families with children have lower violent crime

Hypothesis 19: Neighborhoods with a greater proportion of families with children have lower property crime

Hypothesis 20: Neighborhoods with higher proportions of single parent females have higher violent crime

Hypothesis 21: Neighborhoods with higher proportions of single parent females have higher property crime

Hypothesis 22: Neighborhoods with higher proportions of single parent males have higher violent crime

Hypothesis 23: Neighborhoods with higher proportions of single parent males have higher property crime

Hypothesis 24: Neighborhoods with higher BH Female Ratios have higher violent crime

Hypothesis 25: Neighborhoods with higher BH Female Ratios have higher property crime

Hypothesis 24: Neighborhoods with higher BH Male Ratios have higher violent crime

Hypothesis 25: Neighborhoods with higher BH Male Ratios have higher property crime

Hypothesis 26: Neighborhoods with higher Single Parent Female Index have higher violent crime

Hypothesis 27: Neighborhoods with higher Single Parent Female Index have higher property crime

Hypothesis 28: Parent Soup

Big Soup – Violent Crime

Big Soup – Property Crime

Pax Obama - Wednesday

Pax Obama - Thursday

Support Group: Coping with underreporting bias Property Crime Violent Crime

Support Group: Coping with underreporting bias

Problems with Data and Methodology Underreporting of crimes in a biased sample of neighborhoods Overly zealous enforcement of laws in a biased sample of neighborhoods Grafting 2008 crime data onto 2005 demographic data

Problems with Data and Methodology Is a one variable regression meaningful? Condensing crime data into 77 data points Concentrate on just a few hypotheses