VI C. National Migration [See text, Chapter 7, pp and ] ECON 3508November 2015

Agenda National Migration A.Why do People Migrate A.People’s Motivations B.Underlying Forces B.The Migratory Process A.Varieties of migration C.The “Harris-Todaro Model” of Migration D.Is Internal Migration Desirable? E.Policy Implications International Migration

A. Why do People Migrate People’s Motivations : Push factors: real income, security, opportunity: Environmental factors (drought, land degradation, salinization) Population pressures on the land (excessive land fragmentation; land ownership patterns) Political instability and civil conflict (e.g. Colombia) Non-economic Factors: To break the bonds of traditional rural society Pull factors: real income, security, opportunity Urban employment opportunities Income possibilities Urban amenities; water electricity, modern housing, quality of life, cultural

A. Why do People Migrate Underlying Forces –Structural Change –Technological Change –All factors affecting agriculture and rural development relative to urban development –All factors affecting the location of economic activity

B. The Migratory Process Who Migrates? Varieties of Migration Rural to urban Rural to rural Urban to urban Urban to rural? Seasonal Commuting

Components of Migration in Selected Countries

C.The “Harris-Todaro Model” of Migration Intuitive version or verbal version; –Migration is a rational decision –The decision depends on expected rather than actual wage differentials –The probability of obtaining a city job is inversely related to the urban unemployment rate –High rates of migration are outcomes of rural urban imbalances Graphical version: OMITTED

OMIT: The Graphical Model

Economic Implications of Migration –Accommodating structural change in an economy –Permitting shifts from low to higher productivity economic activities –Shifting of “surplus labour” –Relief of rural population pressures –Migrants are presumably better off and usually or else they would return if they were not –Socioeconomic costs on urban areas –Socioeconomic costs for areas of origin

D. Is Rural to Urban Migration Desirable? A.From the perspective of the migrants? B. From a societal perspective?

D. Is Rural to Urban Migration Desirable? B. From a societal perspective NOTE: AN ECONOMIC ANALYISIS WOULD FOCUS ON BOTH PRIVATE AND PUBLIC (OR SOCIAL) COSTS AND BENEFITS. The Positives Surplus labour leaves the land; Rural population pressures are relieved; Structural change in the economy is made possible; Higher productivity made possible in urban activities; Higher incomes for migrants

D. Is Rural to Urban Migration Desirable? B. From a societal perspective? The Negatives: Unemployment and underemployment in urban areas Inundation of people into informal sector activities Overcrowding & congestion; Shanty-towns and inadequate housing; Crime and social dysfunction? Overburdened infrastructure Increased taxes to accommodate new-comers Higher costs of infrastructure as cities expand further Environmental costs

D. Is Internal Migration Desirable? Cont’d: Rural-to-urban migration was viewed positively until recently The current view is that this migration is greater or more rapid than the urban areas’ abilities to –Create jobs –Provide social services Therefore, slow down the migratory process in those countries where it is very rapid. HOW?

E.Policy Implications Slow down rural-urban migration. HOW? Create a better urban-rural balance; Reduce “Urban Bias” –Eliminate all “biases” favouring large cities at the expense of small towns, rural areas and regions; –Eliminate factor price distortions that favour “capital” industry and urban areas; –Emphasize rural infrastructure Promote rural and regional development –Expand small-scale, labor intensive industries in rural areas small towns and secondary cities; –Broaden the economic base of rural areas; Programs of integrated rural development should be encouraged to generate rural jobs and higher incomes; –Decentralize authority to cities, towns and neighborhoods;

F.Policy Implications Slow down rural-urban migration. HOW? Cont’d Choose appropriate labor-intensive technologies of production where possible; Modify carefully the linkage between education and employment; Reduce population growth; Urban job creation is insufficient for reducing urban unemployment; –Improve rural incomes and jobs as well –Urban wage subsidies can be counterproductive, merely inducing more migration and unemployment –Avoid “Induced Migration” by trying to create urban jobs while neglecting rural areas;

International Migration World Migration Report 2015 – Migrants and Cities: New Partnerships to Manage Mobility World Migration Report 2015 – Migrants and Cities: New Partnerships to Manage Mobility NOTE: This topic is deleted due to a lack of time. If you would like to examine it yourself, please see the World Mogration Rewport, 2015 here: World Migration Report 2015 – Migrants and Cities: New Partnerships to Manage MobilityWorld Migration Report 2015 – Migrants and Cities: New Partnerships to Manage Mobility