Power System Marginal CO2 Production Factors Jeff King Northwest Power and Conservation Council Presented to the RTF April 18, 2006.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Will CO2 Change What We Do?

Advertisements

Modeling a Clean Energy Standard Karen Palmer Senior Fellow Resources for the Future USAEE/IAEE Annual Conference Washington, DC October.

1 John J. Conti Acting Director Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting Prepared for the Energy Technology System Analysis Program (ETSAP) Florence,

Ad Hoc West-wide Resource Assessment Team (WRAT) : Assessment of Western System Adequacy in the Short-term Jeff King Northwest Power Planning Council Presentation.

Toward a Sustainable Future Name of Conference, Event, or Audience Date Presenter’s Name | ©2011 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All.

22 April 2010 EWEC 2010 Warsaw2 Jesper Munksgaard Ph.D., Senior Consultant Merit Order Effect of Wind Power – Impact on EU 2020 Electricity Prices.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Effects of Alternative Scenarios on Sixth Power Plan Northwest Power and Conservation Council Whitefish, MT June.

IPCC Synthesis Report Part IV Costs of mitigation measures Jayant Sathaye.

Study Case Report PC 10 High Carbon Price PC 11 Low Carbon Price W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL.

Turning the wind into hydrogen: Long run impact on prices and capacity

INTEGRATION COST. Integration Cost in RPS Calculator While “Integration Cost” is included in NMV formulation, the Commission stated that the Integration.

Energy Performance Certificates. Energy Efficiency Rating This chart tells us how energy efficient a building is. This efficiency depends on the construction.

Sergey Paltsev Massachusetts Institute of Technology Low-Carbon Russia: Myth or Reality? Moscow, Russia January 15, 2015.

World Bank Experience with Power Sector Baselines Workshop on CDM Methodologies for Grid-Connected Power Projects Buenos Aires, 8 December 2004 Fernando.

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council 6 th Plan Conservation Resource Supply Curve Workshop on Data & Assumption Overview of Council Resource Analysis.

Draft Avoided Cost Forecast and Marginal CO 2 Offset Value of Conservation Regional Technical Forum Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council.

CD4CDMCD4CDM Estimating CO 2 Emissions Reduction by example.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council The Northwest Energy Efficiency Market 2007 NAESCO Northwest Regional Meeting June 15, 2007 Tom Eckman Northwest.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Regional Conservation Update: News From the Front January 24, 2007 Tom Eckman Northwest Power and Conservation.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Slide 1 The Role of Efficiency In Meeting PNW Energy Needs Tom Eckman Manager, Conservation Resources Northwest.

Base Case Draft – For Comment Rocky Mountain States Sub-Regional Transmission Study December 9, 2003.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Draft Plan Proposed Regional Conservation Targets for June 9, 2009.

LONG TERM ELECTRICAL SUPPLY PLAN STAFF RESPONSE TO QUESTIONS, ISSUES, AND RECOMMENDATIONS MADE IN NOVEMBER 2004 Presentation to the Gainesville City Commission.

Presentation to RGGI Stakeholders April 6, 2005 Steve Fine Chris MacCracken ICF Consulting RGGI Preliminary Electricity Sector Modeling Results Reference.

OPSI Panel Climate Change Sonny Popowsky Consumer Advocate of Pennsylvania October 1, 2009 Annapolis, MD PA Office of Consumer Advocate 555 Walnut Street.

DAC PROJECT Capacity Building in Balcan Countries for the Abatement of Greenhouse Gases Setting priorities for GHG emissions’ reduction George Mavrotas.

LIEN – Reporting Energy & CO 2 Emissions for Carbon Tax and Emissions Trading. Fuel Use and Distribution in Ireland.

Climate Change and The NW Power Supply Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest University of Washington April 21, 2009.

Biomass Thresholds for Electricity, CHP and Heat Generation Nigel Mortimer, Charlotte Hatto, Garry Jenkins and Onesmus Mwabonje North Energy Associates.

The Primary Sources of Risk and a New Metric Michael Schilmoeller Thursday May 19, 2011 SAAC.

Preliminary Results with the Regional Portfolio Model Michael Schilmoeller for the Northwest Power and Conservation Council Generation Resource Advisory.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Slide 1 Accelerating Energy Efficiency To Reduce the PNW Power System's Carbon Footprint Tom Eckman Manager, Conservation.

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council Generating.

Electricity Technology in a Carbon-Constrained Future NARUC Annual Meeting November 14, 2007 Hank Courtright Senior Vice President.

September 21, 2005 ICF Consulting RGGI Electricity Sector Modeling Results Updated Reference, RGGI Package and Sensitivities.

IIASA analysis of near-term mitigation potentials and costs in Annex I countries.

“DRAFT” RMATS 2008 Base Case (To be presented at the RMATS Stakeholders Meeting) March 17, 2004.

Allocation of CO 2 Emission Allowances in RGGI Dallas Burtraw, Karen Palmer, Danny Kahn Resources for the Future Presentation to RGGI Stakeholder Meeting.

PJM©2008 Potential Effects of Proposed Climate Change Policies on PJM’s Energy Market Paul M. Sotkiewicz, Ph.D. Senior Economist PJM Interconnection Organization.

Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001 Electricity Price Forecast Sensitivity Analysis Jeff King Regional Technical Forum January 9, 2001.

Demand for Natural Gas in Wisconsin: Changes due to Carbon Regulation Peter J. Taglia, P.G., Staff Scientist, Clean Wisconsin Andrew D. Kellen, P.E., Assistant.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Revised Carbon Dioxide Methodology Regional Technical Forum April 18, 2004.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council A Look At The Council’s Conservation Planning Methodology and Assumptions A Look At The Council’s Conservation.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Overview of Draft Sixth Power Plan Council Meeting Whitefish, MT June 9-11, 2009.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council The Northwest Forecast – Energy Efficiency Dominates Resource Development Tom Eckman Manager, Conservation Resources.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council The Role of Energy Efficiency in Could (and Should) Play in Montana’s Future Insights from the 5 th Northwest.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council The Role of Energy Efficiency in the Northwest Power and Conservation Plan Tom Eckman Manager, Conservation Resources.

1 SMD and Efficiency Programs Standard Market Design (SMD) –Implemented March, 2003 –Major feature, locational assignment of costs and locational price.

1 Proposed Input Assumptions to RTF Cost-Effectiveness Determinations February 2, 2010.

Electric Capacity Market Performance with Generation Investment and Renewables Cynthia Bothwell Benjamin Hobbs Johns Hopkins University Work Supported.

Economic Assessment of Implementing the 10/20 Goals and Energy Efficiency Recommendations – Preliminary Results Prepared for : WRAP, AP2 Forum Prepared.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Outlook for coal and electricity for National Coal Council November.

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Interim Wholesale Electricity Price and Carbon Dioxide Production Forecasts Maury Galbraith Northwest.

Rethinking Energy Efficiency Cost-Effectiveness Premium Sources of Value Michael Schilmoeller, Ph.D. Northwest Power and Conservation Council April 23,

Atcllc.com Using CEMS Data to Estimate Coal-Fired Plant FORs and Scheduled Maintenance Chris Hagman

Northwest Power and Conservation Council How The Council’s Fifth Power Plan Conservation Targets Affect You 2007 Bonneville Power Administration Utility.

Slide 1 Overview of Conservation in the Pacific Northwest Energy Efficiency Options in the Northwest Post-2011Meeting March 4, 2008.

Progress Toward the Sixth Plan’s Regional Conservation Goals 2014 Achievements November

Northwest Power and Conservation Council The Northwest Experience with Energy Efficiency As A Resource Option Tom Eckman Manager, Conservation Resources.

Updated Energy Year 2011 Electricity Finnish Energy Industries

Standards of Performance for Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Existing Stationary Sources: Electric Utility Generating Units OMB Meeting June 23, 2015.

Hybrid Forecast for Resource Adequacy Analysis with recommendations Massoud Jourabchi April

15ELP044: Energy System Investment and Risk Management Unit 2B: Energy Economics and Markets Paul Rowley 1, Simon Watson 1 and Andy Williams 2 1 CREST.

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts Maury Galbraith Generating Resource Advisory Committee Meeting.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council The Role of Electric Energy Efficiency in Reducing PNW Carbon Emissions Tom Eckman Manager, Conservation Resources.

Energy Year 2016 Electricity

Key Findings and Resource Strategy

Additional clarifications on economic and adequacy running hours

Wholesale Electricity Costs

Presentation transcript:

Power System Marginal CO2 Production Factors Jeff King Northwest Power and Conservation Council Presented to the RTF April 18, 2006

2 Marginal system CO2 Production Factor The amount of carbon dioxide (lbCO2/kWh) produced by the marginal resource required to meet load. Typically assessed as an average over some period, e.g., a year, and therefore an average of the CO2 production of many different resources that may be on the margin during the period.

3 Applications Impact of energy efficiency measures on CO 2 production & resulting cost-effectiveness (RTF issue). Systemwide reduction in fuel consumption from CHP development (OR Energy Trust issue)

4 We can use AURORA xmp® to identify the marginal resource for each hour Identify hourly marginal (highest-cost dispatched) Northwest resource Calculate marginal CO2 factor for hour. This resource (and its effects, such as CO2 production) will (generally) be the resource displaced for that hour by new resource additions.

5 Northwest resources on the margin 5 th Plan Portfolio

6 Estimated annual average marginal system CO2 production factors

7 Marginal CO2 factor is higher than average factor in the Northwest

8 Comparison to earlier estimate (May 2000)

9 Why the difference? Existing resource mix – much less gas Future resource mix – less wind & conservation Modeling approach West-wide vs Northwest

10 Sensitivity to load sector Segment 1: 0800 – 1800 M-F Segment 2: / M-F; 0400 – 2200 S&S Segment 3: M-F Segment 4: S&S

11 Marginal CO2 factor is relatively insensitive to the rate of conservation acquisition

12 High fuel prices do not significantly affect marginal CO2 factor in near & mid-term

13 CO2 value of conservation

14 Limitations Marginal resource may be external to region for some hours Can be identified, but computationally difficult AURORA often identifies a “must-run” (e.g. cogen) unit as the marginal resource Assumed natural gas resource is the “real” marginal resource in these cases Biomass units, though uncommon, often end up on the margin Institutional constraints can lead to suboptimal dispatch in the real world

15 Conclusions Marginal rate of CO2 production in the Northwest is expected to range from 0.88 – 0.95 lb CO2/kWh. Lower than earlier estimates. Varies significantly by hourly load sector (-15% to +40%). The marginal rate is relatively insensitive to conservation acquisition rate or fuel prices. The average rate is likely to be more sensitive to these factors. The CO2 value of (flat output) conservation ranges from $0 to about $15/MWh using the range of CO2 costs considered in 5 th Plan.