1 Joint Action Group for Operational Community Modeling Dr. Nelson Seaman JAG/OCM Chair Fall COPC 2008 AFWA, Omaha, NB 13 November 2008

2 JAG/OCM membership (review) Status of initiatives 1. COPC AI : Plan way forward to implement IEMCO for limited-area NWP. 2. COPC AI : Establish and maintain coordination/ collaboration between JAG/OCM and NUOPC. 3. DTC update: Management, resources, activities. Overview

3 NWS – Nelson Seaman (Chair)* FNMOC – Roger Stocker AFWA – Evan Kuchera NAVO – Frank Bub NRL/MRY – Pat Phoebus (temporary) NRL 7300 (Oceanog. Div., Stennis) – Steven Payne JAG/OCM Membership *Term ends Feb Changes in JAG membership since last COPC meeting shown in blue.

4 1. COPC AI : IEMCO Implementation - Decision Requested - Recommendation: Close this A.I. Open new A.I. for next steps.

5 IEMCO Planning: Limited-Area NWP (Detail from Spring 2008 COPC, JAG/OCM slide 17) CategoryProject Element Project Type Source Model(s) Target System ProviderUserTarget Date Priority Limited Area NWP: a. Align CONUS windows OperationsNAMNCEPAFWAFY09High b. Align OCONUS Guam windows OperationsCOAMPSFNMOCNCEPFY09Moderate c. Deconflict DoD OCONUS windows OperationsWRF, COAMPS AFWA, FNMOC FNMOC, AFWA FY09 - ?? Moderate

6 1a. Align CONUS Windows IEMCO plan: AFWA use NAM over N. America. New policy: AF Dir. of Wx, June 2008: AFWA will… - maintain product generation based on its WRF windows over N. America. - continue receiving NCEP NAM fields as “second-look” model. (begun Dec. ’07) JAG/OCM Recommendation:Close this element of AI

7 1b. Align OCONUS Guam Windows: NCEP use FNMOC’s COAMPS FNMOC realigned/expanded its WestPac window to satisfy NCEP requirements for Guam and Marianas Islands. (Apr ’06) NWS has not implemented COAMPS to replace coarser GFS fields. - Other priorities led to delay of conversion tasks. - NCEP re-evaluating cost effectiveness of WestPac COAMPS : Computer resources saved vs. added recoding and comms burden? JAG Recommendation: Await NWS /NCEP guidance.

8 1c. Deconflict DoD OCONUS Windows Identify significant commonalities in current DoD OCONUS unclassified windows. Propose near-term realignments of coarse domains to maximize overlaps. Recommendation next steps to COPC. JAG/OCM strategy: Goals: - Maximize useful information for OPCs. - Minimize investment of personnel time until course of action is approved.

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11 Proposed common DoD coarse mesoscale domains for mutual backup and ensemble development

12 Benefits from Overlapping Domains: - Options - Eliminate duplications – One OPC discontinues runs. Pro:-Saves computational resources. Con:-Additional comms. -Investment in conversion codes. -Assessment of impact on products. Provide mutual backup - Both OPCs continue runs. Pro:-No impact on current products. -Further investment of effort is controllable. -Comms demand only on emergency basis. Con:-Some duplication of computational costs. Prepare path for future DoD ensemble. (See next slide)

13 Experimental Ensemble Strategy Select one shared window for ensemble development. - Recommend WestPAC domain. Continue running hi-res deterministic forecasts. - Evaluate skill using common metrics. - Exchange model datasets (1 st stage “poor-man’s ensemble”). Implement low-res. (30 km?) two-member “control” ensemble generated by FNMOC & AFWA. - Generate and evaluate shared ensemble forecast products. Gradually add new ensemble members as resources allow. - Assess computer, comms, personnel burdens. - Provides multi-model and multi-physics options. - Possibility for new members with perturbed ICs/BCs.

14 Proposed* Milestones and Timetable Realign three overlapping OCONUS domains. (FY09) - Runs continue at both FNMOC and AFWA. - Provides zero-order mutual backup capability. Evaluate need for advanced mutual backup capability. - Further development TBD. (FY09) Develop 30-km “controls” as IOC ensemble. (FY10) Develop, test, and evaluate experimental products from two-member IOC “control” ensemble.(FY11-FY12) Add additional ensemble members as skill warrants and as resources allow. (FY13-FY15) * Proposal is for discussion purposes only.

15 2. COPC AI : Establish and maintain coordination/collaboration between JAG/OCM and NUOPC - Decision Requested - Recommendation: Close the A.I.

16 Coordination of JAG/OCM and NUOPC NUOPC manager (Fred Toepfer) and JAG/OCM chair are consulting once per month to exchange information and discuss opportunities. Status: NUOPC focusing initially on global modeling, whereas JAG is currently focused on limited-area windows. No active coordination at present.

17 3. DTC Update Information only

18 Status of DTC Management/Resource Plan Management Plan:DTC Charter - Charter approved by all parties, except for NWS, June NOAA legal counsel did not approve Charter, June Charter revisions address counsel concerns, July Revised version still awaiting review by NOAA counsel. Resourcing: NOAA-NCAR Cooperative Agreement - Signed June New initiatives:DTC is… - Planning support of ESMF-based community models. (see slide 19). - Participating in Hurricane Forecast Intensity Project (HFIP).

19 Support of ESMF-Based Models to the NWP Research Community Establish and maintain parallel WRF and ESMF code repositories. (FY09-FY10) Anticipate WRF DTC support of ESMF framework and community NWP models run operationally under ESMF. - ESMF-NMM in FY09. - ESMF-ARW in FY11-FY12. Expect user support to lag ~1-2 years behind operational updates. Anticipate DTC support of ESMF-based global mesoscale models to research community. (FY12 and beyond)

20 DTC Role in HFIP DTC will… Conduct evaluations of developmental models for future operational hurricane predictions. - Hi-res. limited-area models (~ 1 km) - Current operational limited-area models (~10 km) - Mesoscale global models (~10 km)? Organize and run HFIP workshops.

21 Decision 1: AI Recommend closure of AI , open new AI (see below): – No further JAG action on NCEP N. American domain. – NWS: First, decide priority and assign implementation responsibility for Guam/Marianas products based on FNMOC WestPac COAMPS. (No JAG action.) – JAG: Prepare implementation plan for delivery of WestPAC COAMPS as per NWS requirements. – JAG: Plan alignment of 3 OCONUS windows (~15-18 km) providing limited backup capability. – COPC: Decide whether to pursue enhanced backup capability. – AFWA and FNMOC: Create “joint design team” for experimental WestPac ensemble. (Issues: Resolution, member selection, computing, products, comms, FTE estimate, T&E requirements, milestones, timetable)  Relationship between JAGs and design team TBD. (CSAB?) Decision 2: AI Recommend closure. Summary of Decision Requests

22 Questions?

23 Backups

24 IEMCO Implementation Roadmap (spring ’08) Complete IEMCO Planning Table (Spring 2008 JAG report to COPC, slides Identify “first-guess” deliverables for each model. Estimate dataset volumes and schedules for first-guess deliverables. Work with JAG/CCM to define communications load requirements for model datasets. Draft a modeling annex to the DAPE MOA. Draft model implementation plans for highest-priority model implementations. - Consistent with modeling annex to DAPE MOA. - Similar in scope & content to WRF Joint Implementation Plan. Refine and complete modeling annex to DAPE MOA. Refine and complete each model implementation plan.