Paul VanRaden and John Cole Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory Beltsville, MD, USA 2004 Planned Changes to Models and Trait Definitions.

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Presentation transcript:

Paul VanRaden and John Cole Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory Beltsville, MD, USA 2004 Planned Changes to Models and Trait Definitions

S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (2)P.M. VanRaden 2004 November 2004 Changes  Pregnancy checks used in days open predictions ( DIM)  Longevity for foreign Holstein bulls  Single-trait longevity from Interbull  Multi-trait processing at AIPL  Foreign bull mean PL REL = 46% (was 38%), NM$ REL = 72% (was 71%)  15 countries (Other breeds Feb. 2005)

S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (3)P.M. VanRaden Trait and Model Changes  Adjust for past inbreeding (F) and expected future inbreeding (EFI)  Adjust for differing parity SD  Express yield PTA to 36-month age instead of mature equivalent  Use cow instead of bull base for DPR  Use 3.00 instead of breed means for SCS

S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (4)P.M. VanRaden 2004 SCS Breed Means and Bases SCSHOLJERBSWGUEAYSMSH February 2005 base 3.00 PTA base change

S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (5)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Daughter Pregnancy Rate Bases PTA DPRHOLJERBSWGUEAYSMSH 1995 cow mean PTA progress PTA base change

S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (6)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Inbreeding Adjustments VanRaden and Smith, 1999, JDS 82:2771  F (past inbrd.) and EFI (future inbrd.)  Regression on F in animal model (PTA 0 )  PTA EFI = PTA 0 + EFI * b yield.F  Corr (current PTA, PTA EFI ) =.9976  Genetic trend for PTA EFI is reduced  Yield trend 6% less, DPR 14% lower, PL 25% lower, SCS becomes slightly unfavorable  Predict NM$ EFI = NM$ + 7 (F daus ) – 14 (EFI)

S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (7)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Use in Mating Programs  Replace EFI with progeny F  PA NM$ = (NM$ sire + NM$ dam )/2  Progeny merit = PA NM$ – 14 [F prog - (EFI sire - EFI dam )/2]  Similar to calving ease  NM$ includes average value of SCE  SCE has higher value for heifer matings, lower for cow matings

S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (8)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Parity SD Adjustments  Multiplicative or additive adjustments?  Neither makes variances quite equal  Combined approach (Funk et al, 1991 JDS)  Lactation 1-5 deviations multiplied by  [ ] (milk, fat, protein)  [ ] (SCS)  [ ] (DPR)  Helps pass Interbull trend test 1  Corr (official, adjusted PTA) =.9998

S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (9)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Age Adjustment for Yield PTA  Use 36 months vs. mature equivalent  Standardized and actual means similar  Age factors are estimated more precisely  More fair when breed maturity rates differ  Proposed previously by USDA  McDaniel (1973, JDS 56:959), Schutz (1994)  Recommended by Holstein GAC, Oct 1994  Vetoed by Council in 1994 “to allow the industry time to consider the nature and effect of such a change.”

S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (10)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Breed SD and Maturity Rates Age factors from Schutz, 1994 Yield traitsHOLJERBSWGUEAYSMSH 2000 SD / 1990 SD ME / 24 mo ME / 36 mo Net change in PTA SD

S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (11)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Actual vs Standardized Means (current CA data, all lactations) Herd Averages Actual 36-month Equiv. Mature Equiv. Milk22,08021,87723,723 Fat Protein

S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (12)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Genetic Trend (cow birth year) PTAHOLJERBSWGUEAYSMSH Net Merit Prot (lbs) Fat (lbs) Milk (lbs) Prod Life SCS DPR (%)

S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (13)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Calving Ease Changes (Feb. 2005)  Joint BSW-HOL evaluation (pending NAAB approval)  11,793 BSW, 3431 BSW-HOL calvings  12 million HOL calvings  Includes breed-of-MGS effect  Uses HOL (co)variance components and breed-specific bases

S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (14)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Calving Ease Model Validation  Results passed Interbull trend validation  Joint BSW-HOL results compared to single-breed evaluations  Correlations showed BSW data did not adversely affect HOL results.

S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (15)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Product-moment Correlations Rank Correlations Breed Sire Sol MGS Sol Sire PDB MGS PDB Sire Sol MGS Sol Sire PDB MGS PDB BSW HOL Within-breed vs Joint Evaluation

S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (16)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Summary for Calving Ease HOLBSW Sire Calving Ease8.3 ± ± 1.1 Daughter Calving Ease7.6 ± ± 0.8 SCE Reliability DCE Reliability

S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (17)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Future Research  Genetic evaluation of crossbreds  Productive life trait definition  Lactation length, yield correlations  Trend tests prevent inbreeding adj.  Yield trait model improvements  Mendelian sampling variance  Persistency, rate of maturity

S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (18)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Summary  Longevity from Interbull in Nov 2004  Brown Swiss calving ease in Feb 2005  Adjustments for inbreeding and for differing parity SD in Feb 2005  Age adjustment to 36 months instead of mature will affect breed means and SD

S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (19)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Longevity Genetic Correlations Interbull, Sept USACANDEUNLDFRAITAGBR USA CAN DEU NLD FRA ITA GBR

S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (20)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Sire Calving Ease Correlations Interbull, Oct USACANDEUNLDFRAITADNK USA CAN DEU NLD FRA ITA DNK

S-1008 ANNUAL MEETING 2004 (21)P.M. VanRaden 2004 Daughter Calving Ease Correlations Interbull, Oct USACANDEUNLDFRAITADNK USA CAN DEU NLD FRA ITA DNK