The Geostat Hypotheses; In search of a high resolution foundation for Geostatistics, an interactive response to operational user needs in a time of transition. Lars H. Backer European Forum for GeoStatistics (EFGS)

1.1. We need to get the Big Picture

2.2. We need a concrete set of Projects

1. Making sense of things? 2. Survive

INTERNET ProContra SUBJECT OBJECT Sender Recipient 2: Axis of power 3: Axis of communication 1: Axis of transformation Traders Guardians Reference: Response Reference: Subject Reference: Recipient Reference: Foe Reference: Friend Man environmental system (Critical systems only) Time Formal reference system (GGIISS): Critical systems only A D Reality: D. Use C. Build B. Design A. Analyse A D Man environmental system (“Black Box perspective to all systems)”

3.3. We need a Method

OBJECT INTERSUBJECT TIME A.Analyse D.Manage B.Design C.Produce INTERNET SCIENTIFIC PRACTICE PRACTICAL SCIENCE Man environmental system (Critical systems only) Man environmental system (“Black Box perspective to all systems)” Formal reference system (GGIISS): Critical systems only Reference The World

Analysis, Synthesis, Action

4.4. We need a shared Reference

1.Sociocultural system –Narrative (digital and/or analogue documents) –Properties (statistics) –Cartographies (geodata) –Reference literature (reference library) 2.Economic system –Narrative (digital and/or analogue documents) –Properties (statistics) –Cartographies (geodata) –Reference literature (reference library) Man Environmental Systems SocietyEnvironment 1.Man-made environment –Narrative (digital and/or analogue documents) –Properties (statistics) –Cartographies (geodata) –Reference literature (reference library) 2.Natural environment –Narrative (digital and/or analogue documents) –Properties (statistics) –Cartographies (geodata) –Reference literature (reference library)

(1) km (2) km (3) 100 km (4) 10 km (5) 1 km (6) 100 m Regional development Global Local Spaceship Earth

5.5. We need a data Infrastructure

Double perspective : (1) ” Interacting wholes” and (2) ”Kits of Parts”

Dynamic Models

Narratives Object models Texts References Semantic modelling Properties / Statistics Map Features (points, lines and polygons) Dynamics (objects and their relationships) over time Vocabularies Object / layer strategy for data Infrastructure

6.6. We need to adapt our Statistics

Discrete Objects The problem with statistics? NeededGiven 2. Aggregations to Adm. areas 1. Continuous Phenomena Standard Grid infrastructure Infrastructure of Spatial Data on Grids

7.7. We need an infrastructure for Spatial Analysis

Why Grids? A foundation for statistics ”liberated” from administrative areas with: 1.Full coverage (covers land and sea) 2.Fixed, neutral system of small statistical areas (does not change over time) 3.Suitable for (cross disciplinary- cross border-) spatial analysis 4.Fully scalable for local and global use 5.Compliant with existing key technologies for data capture 6.Widely used both in Science and Practice

Warm ocean waters fuel hurricanes Warm ocean waters fuel hurricanes, and there was plenty of warm water for Hurricane Katrina to build up strength once she crossed over Florida and moved into the Gulf of Mexico. This image depicts a 3-day average of actual sea surface temperatures for the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, from August 25-27, Every area in yellow, orange or red represents 82 degrees Fahrenheit or above. The data came from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) instrument on NASA's Aqua sun/missions/satellite_17.htm sun/missions/satellite_17.htm

Spatial analysis The ”Kit of parts” perspective: Required for both Ex Ante and Ex Post purposes! –Analysis, planning, implementation and evaluation of both direct and indirrect action. We are good at: –spatial analysis of the envionment We are less good at: –spatial analysis of society

Outer delineation Population statistics from the Stockholm region(2004) Grids derived from coordinates: X,Y= , (1m grid.) (code: ) X,Y=123456, (10m grid.) (code: ) X,Y=12345, (100m grid.) (code: ) X,Y=1234, 1234 (1km grid.) (code: ) X,Y=123, 123 (10km grid.) (code: ). Quadtree for Grid=1000m Q1=500m Q2=250m Q3=125m

Inner differentiation 1 Day time population (2004) Night time population (2004)

Inner differentiation 2 Day- and night- time population (as continuous phenomena)

Conclusions 1.“Think global, act local” The Systems perspective: A view to both the whole and the parts! 2.“If you cannot describe it you cannot manage it” Integrated Modeling with Objects in Space and Time: An Integrated model! 3.“Proof of the apple is in the eating” Utility: The ultimate proof of the GSS is its function as a practical tool! To change the world No new information required, only to improve what we have got! Keywords: cooperation, coordination, integration and harmonisation

Thank You! Lars H. Backer European Forum for GeoStatistics (EFGS)

Population explosion? Resource constraints? Climate Change? Solvable Problems? Not without GeoStatistics !