B.-W. Shen 1, W.-K. Tao 2, R. Atlas 3, T. Lee 4, O. Reale 5, J.-D. Chern 5, S.-J. Lin 6, J. Chang 7, C. Henze 7, J.-L. Li 8 1 UMCP/ESSIC; 2 NASA/GSFC;

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B.-W. Shen 1, W.-K. Tao 2, R. Atlas 3, T. Lee 4, O. Reale 5, J.-D. Chern 5, S.-J. Lin 6, J. Chang 7, C. Henze 7, J.-L. Li 8 1 UMCP/ESSIC; 2 NASA/GSFC; 3 NOAA/AOML; 4 NASA/HQ; 5 UMBC/GEST; 6 NOAA/GFDL; 7 NASA/ARC; 8 NASA/JPL 5-day forecasts of total precipitable water initialized at 0000 UTC 1 September, 2004 with the 1/12 o fvGCM It is known that General Circulation Models (GCMs) have insufficient resolution to accurately simulate hurricane near-eye structure and intensity. The increasing capabilities of high-end computers have changed this. In 2004, the finite-volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM) at a 1/4 degree resolution, doubling the resolution used by most of operational NWP centers at that time, was implemented and run on the NASA Columbia Supercomputer to obtain promising landfall predictions for major hurricanes. In 2005, we successfully implemented the 1/8 degree version, The Finite-volume GCM (fvGCM) is a next generation modeling system based on a finite-volume dynamical core (Lin, 2004, MWR, ), the community built physical parameterization schemes and land surface model at NCAR. Initial conditions are obtained from the state-of- the-art data assimilation system at NOAA/NCEP. The Columbia Supercomputer 20 SGI® Altix™ superclusters, each with 512 CPUs. 10,240 Intel Itanium® II CPUs, current processor speed: 1.5 GHz current cache: 6 MBs 1 TB of memory per 512 CPUs, with 20 TB total memory Resxy # of cells 1/4 o K 1/8 o ~4 M 1/12 o ~10 M Near-eye Wind Distributions in a 2 o x2 o box (a) AOML high-resolution surface wind analysis, (b) the 0.25 o 99h simulations, (c) the o 99h simulations, (d) the o 96h simulations without convection parameterizations (CPs). Model Validations Forecasts of hurricanes Gustav, Isidore (2002), Bonnie, Charley, Frances (2004), Emily and Katrina (2005) (Atlas et al., 2005, GRL, 32, L0307; Shen et al., 2006a,GRL, 33, L13813) Simulations of mesoscale eddies associated with surface forcing (e.g., the Catalina Eddy, the Hawaii Wake, Shen et al., 2006b, GRL, 33, L05801) Simulations of a Mei-Yu front accompanied by a drifting meso-cyclone (in preparation) 64 Track and Intensity Forecasts of Intense Hurricanes with no Cumulus Parameterizations IVAN (CAT-5), 13 runsKARL (CAT-4), 8 runs Forecasts of Hurricane Katrina EMILY (CAT-4), 14 runs Frances Sonda DENNIS (CAT-4), 12 runsKATRINA (CAT-5), 5 runs IVAN (2004) and demonstrated its performance on intensity forecasts with hurricane Katrina (2005). It is found that the 1/8 degree model is capable of simulating the radius of maximum wind and near-eye wind structure, and thereby promising intensity forecasts. In this study, we will further evaluate the model's performance on intensity forecasts of hurricanes Ivan, Karl (2004), Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita (2005) and Daniel (2006). 疾風知馬力 RITA (CAT-5), 6 runs DANIEL (CAT-4), 6 runs Vertical Structure of Katrina: 96h simulations of horizontal wind speeds (black) and temperature differences (shaded) with no CPs Concluding Remarks The global mesoscale model has been implemented on the NASA Columbia supercomputer and produced promising forecasts for major hurricanes in 2004 and High-resolution simulations with and without cumulus parameterizations will be analyzed thoroughly to understand the dynamics of simulated storms. A high- resolution data assimilation system with better resolved vortices is expected to further improve predictive skill.