Martinique, March 27-29, Dr. José Rubiera Director National Forecast Center Institute of Meteorology (INSMET), CUBA International Seminar “Caribbean Cluster on Natural Risks and Risks from the Sea¨ Hurricane Early Warnings and Warnings: A Cuban Experience.

2 CUBACUBA

3 Tropical Cyclones are one of the greatest risk for all Caribbean Countries

4 Several Principles in the Cuban EWS Legal Basis Mission, Objectives and Functions clearly defined for each actor. All steps in TC Disaster Management are follow. Full coordination among main actors A complete observing system for the country. Operational manuals regulates all actions in the NFC. A QMS will be in force since Hurricane Season 2012 The use of Media by specialists, with graphics and plain, simple words so that everybody understand the information.

There is a wide legal basis that regulates the functioning of EWS  Law No. 75 of National Defense  Decree-law No. 170 on the Civil Defense system  Guideline No. 1 of the Vice President of the National Defense Council  Law No. 81 / 97 on the Environment  Resolution 106 /99 of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment  Ordinance Law No. 279 of 2007 "On General Principles, Organization, Preparation and Provisions of the Hydrometeorological System of Cuba for Exceptional Situations 5

1. The National Forecast Center of INSMET and their territorial branches in charge of monitoring and forecasting Tropical Cyclones 2. Authorities at the different levels of Government, implementing protection measures, advised by officials and experts of the Civil Defense. 3. The Media and social organizations at National to local levels help disseminate information. 4. The citizens, who are well organized, educated and prepared. 6

 To constantly monitor weather  To issue timely Early Warnings to the Government, the Civil Defense, and the people on any hazardous weather system that could affect any part of the Country.  To transmit Early Warnings and warnings through the Media, mainly TV and radio, updating the information frequently.  To participate in awareness and educational activities 7

PREVENTIÓN PREPARATION RESPONSE RECOVERY RISK ASSESMENT AND PLANNING PUBLIC EDUCATION FORECASTS, EARLY WARNING, WATCHES AND WARNINGS. ACTIONS TO PROTECT PEOPLE FORECASTS, EARLY WARNING, WATCHES AND WARNINGS. ACTIONS TO PROTECT PEOPLE RESTABLISH BASIC SERVICES FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR THE AFFECTED AREA RESTABLISH BASIC SERVICES FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR THE AFFECTED AREA PREVENTION AND MITIGATION PREVENTION AND MITIGATION CUBA HAS IMPLEMENTED ALL STEPS IN TC DISASTER MANAGEMENT 8 METEOROLOGIST OF THE NFC ARE INVOLVED IN ALL THESE STEPS

CUBA NATIONAL FORECAST CENTER (NFC) CIVIL DEFENSETHE MEDIA TO FACE HURRICANE´S THREATS

MEDIA CITIZENS NATIONAL FORECAST CENTER CIVIL DEFENSE/ GOVERNMENT MEDIA

The National Forecast Centre issues meteorological warnings on tropical cyclone in a simple way, with clear, concise and comprehensible words for everybody The National Civil Defense issues a warning note and advises the population at risk, from National to local levels, on the protection measures they must take THERE EXISTS A STRONG PARTNERSHIP AMONG THE NATIONAL FORECAST CENTER, THE CIVIL DEFENSE AND THE MEDIA 11 National TV and Radio Broadcast the Warnings “Live” (with remote units) from the NFC and the CD

THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IS WELL PREPARED 1 National Forecast Centre 15 Provincial Forecast Departments 68 Meteorological Stations 8 Meteorological Radars 2 Meteorological Satellite Ground Stations THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IS THE HUMAN RESOURCES

METEOROLOGICAL STATIONS MWS + 60 New AWS

8 Meteorological Radars covers the entire Country WEATHER RADAR NETWORK COVERAGE IN CUBA

RADAR NETWORK COVERAGE IN CUBA Range in each Radar: Qualitatively: km. Quantitatively: 150 km. RADARS PERMANENTLY MONITOR WEATHER

DATA INPUT ANALYSIS AND FORECAST MODELS ISSUANCE OF FORECASTS AND WARNINGS DIFUSISION OF FORECASTS AND WARNINGS RESPONSE ACTIONS BY GOVERNMENT, CIVIL DEFENSE AND CITIZENS SATELILITES RADARS WEATHER STATIONS, SOUNDINGS, SHIPS, BUOYS, AIRCRAFS FORECASTERS TV RADIO TELF - FAX INTERNET NUMERICAL MODELS NATIONAL FORECAST CENTER

4 daily Weather Reports In the main National TV and radio networks, and to the World by satellite through Cubavision International Weather information is followed every evening by a little over 6 millions Cubans. In cases of Hurricanes this figure greatly increase 6 weather presenters, all of them professionals of the National Forecast Center (3 Ph.D., 1 MSc and 2 meteorologists with university level) 6 weather presenters, all of them professionals of the National Forecast Center (3 Ph.D., 1 MSc and 2 meteorologists with university level)

TRACK AND EXPECTED WIND FIELD AREAS WITH INTENSE AND HEAVY RAINFALL STORM SURGE FORECAST ALL HURRICANE EXPECTED IMPACTS ARE ADRESSED IN DETAIL AND FORECAST LIMITATIONS ARE EXPLAINED TO THE PUBLIC IN PLAIN WORDS

rr rr NATIONAL FORECAST CENTER WEB SITE

Free Weather Phone Service Free Weather Phone Service General Weather Report 2.Watches and Warnings 3.Weather Forecast for Cuba 4.Weather Forecast for Havana City 5.Weather forecast for Havana Province 6.Marine Forecast for Fishermen 20 DIAL : WEATHER PHONE FREE SERVICE

WARNINGS + CONFIDENCE METEOROLOGY CIVIL DEFENSE PEOPLE´S ACTION

22 LIST OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES THAT HAVE AFFECTED CUBA SINCE 1996 LEYEND: TROPICAL STORM MINOS HURRICANE (Cat 1 and 2) MAJOR HURRICANE (Cat 3, 4 or 5)

NAMEYEARCATEGORYDEATHS Lili1996H20 Georges1998H16 Irene1999TT2 Michelle2001H45 Isidore2002H10 Lili2002H21 Charley2004H34 Ivan2004H50 Dennis2005H416 Alberto2006TT0 Ernesto2006TT0 Noel2007TT0 Fay2008TT0 Hanna (Indir.)2008TT0 Gustav2008H40 Ike2008H37 Paloma2008H40 23

ECONOMIC DAMAGES HAVE BEEN LARGE

25COUNTRYMajorHurricanes Residents at Risk (Millions) Number of Deaths Death/ Million Residents USA CUBA EFFECTIVENESS OF CUBAN EWS IN HURRICANES RESIDENTS AT RISK 35.7 M 11.5 M Sources: NHC (US), INSMET (Cuba)

26 1. Cuba has an Early Warning System for Tropical Cyclones that covers all the legal, structural, institutional and public aspects. 2. The strong partnership and interaction among the National Forecast Center, the Civil Defense, the Media and the action of the people is a cornerstone of this system. 3. As a result of it, casualties in hurricanes are a minimum and the smallest amount recorded in the Americas, despite the intense tropical cyclone activity in the area since CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

INSMET, CUBA Dr. José Rubiera Director National Forecast Center Instituto de Meteorología (INSMET) Havana, CUBA. Dr. José Rubiera Director National Forecast Center Instituto de Meteorología (INSMET) Havana, CUBA. 27 Questions? Comments?