Jack is currently performing travel demand model forecasting for Florida’s Turnpike. Specifically he works on toll road project forecasting to produce traffic and revenue estimates which are in turn utilized by Turnpike’s finance department to conclude feasibility of a proposed project. Project levels range from a basic feasibility analysis to an investment grade level study.

Analysis Tool for Model Output to Evaluate Express Toll Lanes Feasibility Jack Klodzinski, PhD Florida’s Turnpike Enterprise Tom Adler, PhD Resource Systems Group, Inc. William T. Olsen, PE, PhD Florida’s Turnpike Enterprise

Introduction Regional models used for producing travel demand forecasts Interpretation of traffic volume estimates Daily Vs. Time of Day Estimating toll rates and traffic for a proposed toll facility – By section – By hour

Methodology OUTPUT: Estimated Hourly Traffic and Toll Rates ELTOD Spreadsheet Application INPUT: Hourly Traffic & Distribution, Facility Geometry, Max/Min Toll Rates. INPUT: Run Travel Demand Network Model to Produce Estimated Corridor Volumes

Development Estimate of split between General Use (GU) & Toll lanes using a supply/demand equilibrium process – Supply: Akcelik curves for travel time estimates – Demand: Toll Choice Model

Volume/Delay Curves The Akcelik curve has been found to better represent traffic in corridors with over capacity conditions.

Development Hourly toll rates by V/C ratio & specified limits – Determined by a power curve, exponent (input parameter), and travel timespower curve – Limits are pre-determined minimum & maximum rates Easily modified to represent alternative dynamic tolling policies

Example of Pricing Policy Curves Parameters with min/max toll rates with selected EXP values and LOS E limit Traffic Volume Served Increases Revenue Potential increases These curves are defined by the selected EXP value.

Development: Primary Input Total daily traffic, hourly distribution (by direction), geometry of facility Geometry includes: section lengths, free flow speed, lane capacity, PCE factor, # of lanes (GU & Toll), max/min toll rates Secondary Input are scale factors Spreadsheet format with calculations between supply & demand done iteratively to achieve user equilibrium

Example of Hourly Distribution by Roadway Segment and Direction Plot shows ADT for 24 hourly intervals for each count station on a portion of the Interstate 75 corridor. These curves represent a section of I-75 for one direction.

Application Florida District 1: Lee & Collier County Express Lanes on Interstate 75

Lee/Collier County Networks I-75 Corridor Gulf of Mexico To Miami To Tampa Toll Collection Location Successful Application!

Application Menu

Application: Input Toll Choice Model Pricing Curve Values V/C and Other Values

Application: Input O-D Table from Demand Model

Application: Hourly Output by Section Traffic Volumes (also by time period) V/C Ratios Toll Rates & Projected Revenue Travel Times Link Speeds Cost per Trip Summary Results Display (network layout) Model Run Summary

Application: Sample Output - XL Peak Periods of Hourly Volume and toll rates. Hourly Volume and toll rates, by section & direction

Application: Sample Output - XL Graphical Representation of Hourly Volume and toll rates, by section NORTHBOUND VOLUME

Sample Network Display of Results Local Streets General Use Lanes Express Toll Lanes Slip Ramps

Example of a Potential Project 3 YEARS 7 ALTERNATIVES 21 INITIAL MODEL RUNS Complete Network Model Runs Needed

1 MODEL RUN Example of a Potential Project NETWORK MODELING (4 periods) SPREADSHEET MODELING (24 hour periods) 1 YEAR Model Runs Needed to Estimate an Optimal Toll Rate for One Alternative 9 SECTIONS 1 YEAR 9 SECTIONS 13 TOLL RATES 117 MODEL RUNS OR …and this doesn’t consider the pricing policy available in the ELTOD!

Express Lanes Time of Day (ELTOD) Model Future Enhancements Validation Update Expanded O/D matrix input Toll Choice Model update Additional parameter control Peak Spreading Feedback loop with network model Reporting options Additional output data

Thank You Turnpike’s Northern Coin System TRB CD Paper #