Gaelle Gouarin OECD Trade and Agriculture Food chain network meeting Mobilizing the food chain for health OECD, PARIS, October 25-26 2012 Impacts on the.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

DOHA and the EU. Intro Trade of industrial goods Trade in services Trade in agricultural goods Trade and the Environement.

Advertisements

Subsidy measurement and classification: developing a common framework Workshop on Environmentally Harmful Subsidies, Paris, 7-8 November 2002 Ronald Steenblik.

Towards a G20 supported international initiative for global Agricultural monitoring XV SBSR – Curitiba 2011 May 2 nd - JECAM Proposing a G20 supported.

Ongoing reforms in most developing countries, little change in industrial and some developing countries Ongoing reforms in most developing countries,

Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century?

EC 936 ECONOMIC POLICY MODELLING LECTURE 5: MODELS OF TRADE AND TRADE POLICY: CGE PERSPECTIVES ON TRADE LIBERALIZATION.

ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING FOOD CONSUMPTION PATTERNS Franco Sassi PhD OECD – Health Division Rome, 14 th November 2013.

Miscellaneous – Regions, Locations and Places Part IV.

Directorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT ORGANISATION DE COOPÉRATION ET DE DEVELOPMENT ÉCONOMIQUES.

Introduction to IMPACT. Models Models are logical constructs that represent systems Models can: – Simplify a complex system – Provide insights to the.

OECD-FAO Aglink-CO.SI.MO. Projection System by Stefania Vannuccini Fishery Statistician (Commodities) FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Information and Statistics.

Economic Implications of the AUS-FTA for U.S. Dairy Markets and Policy Presentation by Joseph Balagtas at the Silverado Symposium on Agricultural Policy.

Arno Becker Institute for Food and Resource Economics (ILR), University of Bonn ImpactsMarket development Policy measures Policy objectives Leading to.

Doing Business in Korea October 22, 2008 Ken Nye, Commodity Specialist Michigan Farm Bureau.

May 2001European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2 1 European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003 Inventory.

Department of Economics Risk Environment for Agriculture Agricultural Credit School Ames, Iowa June 8, 2009 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets.

Department of Economics Food and Fuel: The Debate over Biofuels Chad Hart Ames Morning Rotary Ames, Iowa August 6, 2008.

The Economic Impact of Loss of the Beef Export Market Due to Mad Cow Disease: National and Regional Analysis David Holland, Leroy Stodick, Stephen Devadoss.

GLOBAL EFFECT ON INTERNATIONAL PRICES OF EU- MEDITERRANEAN PARTNER COUNTRIES BILATERAL AGRICULTURAL LIBERALIZATION Rafael de Arce (UAM University) Ramón.

OECD Model simulations for OECD’s Environmental Outlook: Methods and Results Presentation at the Fourth Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis Purdue.

Impact of MFA Phase-Out on the World Economy -- An Intertemporal, Global General Equilibrium Analysis Xinshen Diao Trade and Macroeconomic Division International.

OECD 2006 Report: Evaluation of support policy developments in OECD countries. 1.Main trends over time 2.Cross country comparisons 3.Cross commodity comparisons.

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

Does the U.S. Feed the World?

OVERVIEW of WORLD & U.S. BEEF CATTLE INDUSTRIES By David R. Hawkins Michigan State University.

1 Agricultural policies and food supplies Mobilizing the Food Chain for Health Food Chain Network Meeting October

The Impacts of Expanded Biodiesel Production on the World Soybean Market Rafael Costa, Dwi Susanto & Parr Rosson Center for North American Studies (CNAS)

The U.S. and World Sugar Industries under the EU and DOHA Trade Liberalization Won W. Koo Chamber of Commerce Distinguished Professor and Director

1 Agricultural Market Access Database (AMAD) Workshop on Tools and Methods for Trade and Trade Policy Analysis September 2006.

Govinda R. Timilsina The World Bank, Washington, DC Fourth Berkeley Bioeconomy Conference March 24-26, 2011 Economic and Environmental Impacts of Biofuels.

The Impact of the EU Biofuel Policy on the Feedstock Markets in the EU and Worldwide Stephan Hubertus Gay European Commission, DG Agriculture and Rural.

GLOBAL SEAFOOD TRADE The Role of Aquaculture and Consumer Needs

Domestic Support and the WTO: Comparison of Support Among OECD Countries C. Edwin Young Mary Burfisher Frederick Nelson Lorraine Mitchell Economic Research.

Analyzing the Impacts of Biofuel Mandates on World-Wide Grain, Livestock, and Oilseed Sectors Richard Stillman, Jim Hansen, Ralph Seeley, Dave Kelch, Agapi.

Agricultural policies in OECD countries

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE IN TURKEY: Developments in the Framework of EU Accession Erol H. ÇAKMAK Department of Economics Middle East Technical University (METU),

1 GLOBALIZATION AND THE DYNAMICS OF INTERNATIONAL FISH TRADE IIFET 2008 Nha Trang Audun Lem, FAO William Emerson, FAO.

STRAINING THE LINKS BETWEEN BIOFUEL POLICIES AND FOOD INSECURITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Wyatt Thompson and Ignacio Pérez Domínguez 17 th ICABR Conference,

Unequal Compliance: The Global Trade Alert's Pre- G20 report Presentations in Washington DC June 2010 Prof. Simon J. Evenett

Directorate for Food, Agriculture, and Fisheries 1 ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT ORGANISATION DE COOPÉRATION ET DE DEVELOPMENT.

HOW SINKS IN WOOD PRODUCTS AFFECT THE COST OF KYOTO PROTOCOL AND WORLD TRADE OF WOOD PRODUCTS: results from a global economywide model Johanna Pohjola.

Department of Economics Food and Fuel Issues Iowa Seed Association Annual Convention Ames, Iowa November 18, 2008 Chad Hart Assistant Professor of Economics/Grain.

ATPSM Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model Lucian Cernat International Trade Division United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

Relative food consumption rate in calories for each nutrition value food product.

Trends in Fisheries and food Roger Martini 25 January 2012 This presentation represents the view of the author and may not reflect that of the OECD Secretariat.

The Chinese Agricultural Sector after Admittance to the WTO Won W. Koo Director and Professor Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies North Dakota.

Does the U.S. Feed the World? Economic Research Service U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Directorate for Food, Agriculture, and Fisheries 1 ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT ORGANISATION DE COOPÉRATION ET DE DEVELOPMENT.

Impact on EU agriculture of Falconer’s draft modalities DG for Agriculture and Rural Development European Commission.

Impact of the CAP Reforms on U.S. – EU Cereal Trade Sachin Chintawar, Lynn Kennedy, John V. Westra.

What are the most efficient measures of mitigation and adaptation to produce more in a sustainable manner? Dr. Ada Ignaciuk, Agricultural Policy Analyst,

Does the U.S. Feed the World? Economic Research Service U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Model Comparison Subgroup July 15, Comparison to CBO scoring CBO need to know effects of the ‘policy’ – Marginal effects of policy implementation.

“The Economics of Alternative Energy Sources and Globalization: The Road Ahead”, November15 – 17, 2009, Orlando, Florida Impacts of future energy price.

Clarifying Trade Costs in Maritime Transport Jane Korinek OECD Trade and Agriculture Working Party on International Trade in Goods and Trade in Services.

Model Comparison Subgroup July 15, Comparison to CBO scoring CBO need to know effects of the ‘policy’ – Marginal effects of policy implementation.

New Orleans June 1 – 3, Comparing market access formulas for U.S. and EU What hurts and who benefits? Christine Wieck and Tom Wahl Impact Center.

ICT statistics for benchmarking economic performance The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions.

1 The Impacts of the FTAA and China’s WTO Accession on the International Trade of Soybeans and Soybean Products Presentation: Conference on Free Trade.

Macroeconomic Impacts of Prevention Policies for NCDs: Making the Case to the Finance Department Paul J. Thomassin McGill University, Department of Agricultural.

AGRICULTURAL POLICIES IN OECD COUNTRIES Václav Vojtĕch OECD, Trade and Agriculture Directorate Department of Economic and Social Policies Prague University.

Eric Wailes and Alvaro Durand-Morat University of Arkansas, Division of Agriculture Impacts of WTO Policy on U.S. Rice Policy.

Toward a More Integrated North American Agri-Food Market Presented by Brian Paddock Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada San Antonio, Texas May 23-24, 2002.

Xinshen Diao, Agapi Somwaru and Terry Roe The objective was to provide the “ big picture ” A Global Analysis Of Agricultural Reform In WTO Member Countries.

Conference “CAP Implementation in Estonia – Results and Future Outlooks” Global Trends of Agriculture Opportunities for Estonia Catherine Moreddu,

Domestic support and international agricultural markets

IMPACTS OF EU INTEGRATION ON TURKISH AGRICULTURE

The 2008 Market Access Proposals and Developing Countries

ECON 331 INTERNATIONAL TRADE

Global Marketing #1.

Presentation transcript:

Gaelle Gouarin OECD Trade and Agriculture Food chain network meeting Mobilizing the food chain for health OECD, PARIS, October Impacts on the agricultural sector of moving towards a ‘healthy diet’

OECD Trade & Agriculture 2 Impacts of moving towards a ‘healthy diet’ Measure impact on main agricultural sector aggregates of : –Scenario 1 : Reduction in total fat consumption following a comprehensive prevention strategy. –Scenario 2 : WHO dietary guideline target of saturated fat consumption at 10% or less of total calories Method: Simulations using the Aglink-Cosimo Model

OECD Trade & Agriculture 3 What is the AGLINK - COSIMO model? A partial equilibrium model covering the main agricultural markets (cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meats and dairy commodities), biofuels and fish & seafood A recursive-dynamic model (i.e. the market equilibrium in one year includes lagged variables) A Policy Specific Model: includes explicitly policy measures, such as import tariffs, tariff rate quotas, subsidies, etc.

OECD Trade & Agriculture 4 AGLINK endogenous European Union (15) Mexico Japan European Union (12) Canada Australia USA New Zealand Korea ArgentinaBrazilRussiaChina CHE NOR exogenous 30 countries 18 regional aggregates COSIMO Aglink-Cosimo country coverage

OECD Trade & Agriculture 5 Decrease in fat consumption following the implementation of a comprehensive prevention strategy Reduction in total fat consumption following a comprehensive prevention strategy.

OECD Trade & Agriculture 6 Implementation of a comprehensive prevention strategy : % decrease required in fat consumption COUNTRIES% decrease on average ( ) Argentina-0.9 Australia-1.4 Brazil-0.9 Canada-1.2 Chile-0.9 China-0.8 European Union-1.1 India-0.7 Japan-0.8 Korea-0.8 Mexico-1.4 New Zealand-1.4 Russian Federation-0.8 United States-1.4

OECD Trade & Agriculture 7 Scenario 1 results : Impacts on world prices of a comprehensive prevention strategy

OECD Trade & Agriculture 8 Moving to WHO guidelines for saturated fats ( 10% of total calories) Calculate saturated fat consumption in grams for each country(based on FBS-FAO), aglink database and secretariat estimates Total Calories taken from national sources and assumptions applied over similar countries Select those countries whose consumption of saturated fat >=10 % of total calories

OECD Trade & Agriculture 9 Saturated fats as a share of total calories consumed

OECD Trade & Agriculture 10 SATURATED FAT REDUCTION needed to meet WHO guidelines

OECD Trade & Agriculture 11 Scenario2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

OECD Trade & Agriculture 12 Scenario2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

OECD Trade & Agriculture 13 Scenario 2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

OECD Trade & Agriculture 14 Scenario results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

OECD Trade & Agriculture 15 Scenario2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

OECD Trade & Agriculture 16

OECD Trade & Agriculture 17 Scenario 2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

OECD Trade & Agriculture 18 Scenario2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

OECD Trade & Agriculture 19 Scenario 2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

OECD Trade & Agriculture 20 Scenario 2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

OECD Trade & Agriculture 21 Scenario 2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

OECD Trade & Agriculture 22 Contact OECD Trade and Agriculture