COP21 Presentation 3 The Goals of Countries Ford & Eric

Caps and How They Are Set Governments are slowly submitting their post 2020 targets Governments are slowly submitting their post 2020 targets Dubbed “Intended Nationally Determined Contributions” Dubbed “Intended Nationally Determined Contributions” Or INDC’s Or INDC’s These targets will form the basis of any agreement that may come out of Paris These targets will form the basis of any agreement that may come out of Paris

Comparing Ambitions Brazil and EU taken on strongest targets India, Russia, and China on the weaker end of spectrum Lets look closer

United States Goals: Goals: -17% reduction by 2020 based on 2005 levels -17% reduction by 2020 based on 2005 levels -26% by % by 2025 Ambitious but possible goals Ambitious but possible goals EPA’s Clean Power Plan appears to put US on track EPA’s Clean Power Plan appears to put US on track Should be able to meet both goals with additional policies Should be able to meet both goals with additional policies States may independently try to reduce emissions States may independently try to reduce emissions Uncertainty if next president will carry on Obama’s policies Uncertainty if next president will carry on Obama’s policies Held back by congressional deadlock and climate change skepticism Held back by congressional deadlock and climate change skepticism

China Predominantly coal powered (68% as of 2013) Predominantly coal powered (68% as of 2013) Aiming for non-fossil fuel sources to make up 20% installed power by 2030 Aiming for non-fossil fuel sources to make up 20% installed power by 2030 Driven by improving air pollution Driven by improving air pollution Modest INDCs may be showing that China is progressing forward in its stance on climate change Modest INDCs may be showing that China is progressing forward in its stance on climate change After years of resisting After years of resisting

The EU Goals Goals -20% reduction by 2020 based on 1990 levels -20% reduction by 2020 based on 1990 levels -30% by % by 2030 Highest overall emissions reduction goals Highest overall emissions reduction goals Should be able to meet 2020 and 2030 goals without much change Should be able to meet 2020 and 2030 goals without much change Well-developed environmental policy already in place Well-developed environmental policy already in place Continues to implement renewable energy Continues to implement renewable energy Claims that international credits won’t be needed to reach goals Claims that international credits won’t be needed to reach goals This will likely change because the EU has supported the carbon credit market in the past This will likely change because the EU has supported the carbon credit market in the past

India One of the major sources of global emissions over the coming decades One of the major sources of global emissions over the coming decades Developing country Developing country Problem of alleviating mass poverty (275 million) Problem of alleviating mass poverty (275 million) Country might be unwilling to commit to an emissions target that may constrain economic growth Country might be unwilling to commit to an emissions target that may constrain economic growth On track for non-fossil fuel sources to make up 58% installed power by 2030 On track for non-fossil fuel sources to make up 58% installed power by 2030 In COP21 will likely call for financial assistance in green development In COP21 will likely call for financial assistance in green development

India’s Forecast

Brazil Most ambitious INDC submitted Most ambitious INDC submitted Plans to increase non- fossil energy to 45% of 2030 energy usage Plans to increase non- fossil energy to 45% of 2030 energy usage Emphasis on biofuel: looking to make up 18% by 2030 Emphasis on biofuel: looking to make up 18% by 2030 Motivated by effects of climate change, particularly drought Motivated by effects of climate change, particularly drought

Russia Goals: Goals: -15% reduction by 2020 based on 1990 levels -15% reduction by 2020 based on 1990 levels -25% by % by 2030 Actually allows for 71% emissions growth compared to today Actually allows for 71% emissions growth compared to today 1990 levels apparently refer to entire Soviet Union 1990 levels apparently refer to entire Soviet Union Emissions have fallen since breakup of the Soviet Union Emissions have fallen since breakup of the Soviet Union Unwilling to take on ambitious goals despite international pressure Unwilling to take on ambitious goals despite international pressure Political funding from oil and gas industries Political funding from oil and gas industries Government hostile to climate change mitigation Government hostile to climate change mitigation

Russia’s Forecast

Sources Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg New Energy Finance UNFCCC UNFCCC World Bank World Bank IMF IMFQuestions?