Decision Making

Plan Types of decisions Models of decision making The decision making process Creativity 2

Connecting the Dots “Making warning systems more sensitive reduces the risk of surprise, but increases the number of false alarms, which in turn reduces sensitivity” “The Chief of Staff has to make decisions, and his decisions must be clear… To be sure, the clearer and sharper the estimate, the clearer and sharper the mistake..” 3

Understanding Decision Making Puzzles, Problems, and Wicked Problems A discrepancy between a desirable and an actual situation. Well structured, ill-structured, and complex problems. Decision A choice made between available alternatives. Decision Making The process of developing and analyzing alternatives and choosing from among them. Judgment The cognitive, or “thinking,” aspects of the decision- making process. 4

Types of Decisions Programmed Decision A decision that is repetitive and routine(шаблон) and can be made by using a definite, systematic procedure. Nonprogrammed Decision A decision that is unique and novel. 5 Programmed Decisions Nonprogrammed Decisions

Decision-Making Models The Classical Approach Have complete or “perfect” information about the situation. Distinguish perfectly between the problem Identify all criteria and accurately weigh(весить) all the criteria according to preferences(предпочтение). Know all alternatives and can assess each one against each criterion(критерий). Accurately calculate and choose the alternative with the highest perceived(ощущать, понимать) value. 6

The Decision-Making Process  Define the problem.  Clarify your objectives.  Identify alternatives.  Analyze the consequences.  Make a choice.

Step 1. Define the Problem 1.Start by writing down your initial(первоначальный) assessment of the problem. 2.Dissect(анализировать) the problem. What triggered(тормозить) this problem ? Why am I even thinking about solving this problem? What is the connection between the trigger and the problem?

Step 2. Clarify Your Objectives 1.Write down all the concerns you hope to address through your decision. 2.Convert your concerns into specific, concrete objectives. 3.Clarify what you mean by each objective. 4.Test your objectives to see if they capture(захват) your interests. 9

Step 3. Identify Alternatives 1.Generate(производить) as many alternatives as you can yourself. 2.Expand(расширять) your search, by checking with other people, including experts. 3.Look at each of your objectives and ask, “how?” 4.Know when to stop. 10

Step 4. Analyze the Consequences 1.Mentally put yourself into the future. Process Analysis Solving problems by thinking through the process involved from beginning to end, imagining, at each step, what actually would happen. 2.Eliminate(исключать) any clearly inferior(подчиненный) alternative. 11

Step 5. Make a Choice Analyses are useless unless the right choice is made. Under perfect conditions, simply review the consequences of each alternative, and choose the alternative that maximizes benefits. In practice, making a decision—even a relatively simple one like choosing a computer—usually can’t be done so accurately or rationally. 12

How To Make Better Decisions 1.Increase Your Knowledge Ask questions. Get experience. Use consultants. Do your research. Force yourself to recognize the facts when you see them (maintain your objectivity). 2.Use Your Intuition A cognitive process whereby a person instinctively makes a decision based on his or her accumulated knowledge and experience. 13

Creativity and Decision Making Creativity The process of developing original, novel responses to a problem. Brainstorming A creativity-stimulating technique in which prior judgments and criticisms are specifically forbidden from being expressed in order to encourage the free flow of ideas which are encouraged. 14 Creativity Task motivation Creativity skills Expertise