PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES FOR A SUCCESSFUL 2010 CENSUS Barbara Everitt Bryant Lisa Neidert December 10, 2009

Overview  Scope of the Census  Challenges for the 2010 Census  Good News for the Census Bureau  The Goods: Looking at Data

Differences between a large social survey and the Decennial Census  Size and Scope  Planning cycle and procedures locked in  535 powerful micromanagers (Congress)  Questionnaire designers who never think it is too late to make changes (Vitter/Bennett and citizen question)  See the census as a jobs program (Schumer, et.al. who want NRFU jobs to go to long-term unemployed)  What next????

Challenges for the 2010 Census  Politics: Winners and Losers  Economy  Hard to Count populations  Media Environment

Politics of the Census: Winners and Losers YearIssue 1789 Census is in the Constitution. Initially had checks and balances. Population used for representation and taxation Slave states vs Free States th amendment – former slaves now counted as full persons 1911 House size is fixed at 435 – zero sum game now. One state’s gain is another state’s loss th amendment – Income tax. Taxes are no longer collected in proportion to population size Rural vs Urban. Only census to never be used for re- apportionment Permanent Apportionment Act. Established a process to make sure apportionment would always take place

Politics of the Census: Winners and Losers YearIssue 1941Congress permanently adopted “Method of Equal Proportions” to determine apportionment. 1968Federal Housing Act includes revenue sharing to local governments. Population counts in census are critical ) Undercount; 2) Which populations should be included (non-citizens, overseas population); 3) Where to count prisoners 1990Statistical adjustment for undercount 2000Statistical adjustment for non-response; Supreme Court ruled against this in June CurrentCitizenship issue again; Size of the House – The per capita district size ranges from 495,304 (WY) to 905,316 (MT). Future????????????????

House Size by Region: 1900 – 2000: A Power Shift to the South and West

Winners and Losers: 1900 – 2000 Selected States

Recent/Future Shifts in Power * 2010* Northeast Midwest South West

2010 Projections  Projections based on December 2008 data  Will update shortly  Growth assumption  Winners  (+1) FL, GA, NV, OR, SC, UT  (+2) AZ  (+4) TX  Losers  (-1) IL, IA, LA, MA, MI, MN, MO, NJ, NY, PA  (-2) OH

Census Challenges: Economy  Housing Vacancies/Foreclosures  Non-response follow up (NRFU) to empty houses increases costs  Doubled-up families  Everyone needs to understand residence rules  Outreach  States participation will be low due to financial constraints Washtenaw county [no resources for this]

Hard to Count: Immigrants – mostly Hispanics  Rapid growth of undocumented population from 1990 – 2006  4% of population; 5.4% of labor force  76% Hispanic; 11% Asian  Varies by state  1990 (42% in CA); 2008 (22% in CA)

Distribution of Undocumented Population [from Pew Hispanic]

Hard to Count - Hispanics  Mistrust/fear and language  Multi-lingual questionnaires and help centers  Won’t solve fear/mistrust issue  Hispanic minister calling for boycott to jumpstart immigration reform  Boycott would help Michigan and other low- Hispanic states in re-apportionment  Would not be helpful for allocation of federal funds

Media Environment  Big Media is fading in influence  How to reach folks who only use alternative media (or none)?  Potential for mis-information in blogosphere  Blogs  

Good News for Census 2010  Short Form Census  Long-form questions are part of the American Community Survey (ACS)  This is Leslie Kish’s rolling census  Technology  Outreach

Good News: Short-Form  10 questions 10 minutes  No long-form negativity in the news  Why are they asking this?  Quotes  George Bush (the younger)  Michelle Bachman  from England

Good News: Technology  Second Mailing  1990: Not even on Census Bureau radar First question Barbara Bryant asked  2000: Technology not quite there  Real-time return data  Can deploy advertising/people to problem areas

Good News: Outreach  Advertising Campaign  Second census to have a real advertising budget  Look for an ad in the Super Bowl  Hard to Count (HTC) campaign  What do you think predicts HTC?  Who are the HTC in Ann Arbor?  ISR/UM project to increase mail response  Not “one size fits all” effort  Outreach specialists decide what works best for their turf

Aging in Place

Race: The Past Race Hispanic White Black Asian Hispanic

Majority/Minority States: 2008  Total population  HI, NM, CA, TX  Different combinations across states  School age population (<18)  HI, NM, CA, TX, AZ, NV, FL, MS, GA  Pre-kindergarten (0-5)  HI, NM, CA, TX, AZ, NV, FL, MD, GA, DE, NY

Race: The Future

Marriage and Family Formation Measure Median age at marriage (women) Never married, 15+ (women) % currently divorced (women) Age at first birth % non-marital births One person households Husband/wife families

Labor Force Participation