14 June 2011 Global economic recovery: From a surging start to a softer patch? Rob Dobson

2 Agenda: Sovereign Wealth Forum  Introduction to the PMIs  Global economic recovery: Softening in Q2  Deja vu and current levels of recuperation

3 Introduction to PMIs  Business surveys of over 18,000 companies worldwide each month  Provide timely and accurate economic indicators  Fill gaps in official data –Official data are often only available weeks, months or years after the PMIs –Official data are subject to significant revision  PMIs can be broken down to provide an accurate representation of global and national trends

4 Sharp global growth slowdown signalled in Q2 Global GDP and the PMI Manufacturing and services Sources: Markit, ISM, JPMorgan, Ecowin.

5 Developed market growth slips closer to stagnation Developed Markets Emerging Markets Sources: Markit, ISM, JPMorgan, HSBC, Ecowin.

6 Developed markets slowing – EZ recovery remains uneven Sources: Markit, ISM. G4 Developed Markets EZ recovery remains ‘lop-sided’

7 UK and US PMIs retreat from ‘rate-hike’ territory Sources: Markit, ISM, Bank of England, European Central Bank, US Federal Reserve Bank. UK EurozoneUS

8 China cools as government acts to rein in growth Sources: Markit, HSBC, SABB HSBC. BRIC Emerging Europe & Middle East

9 Fears of jobless economic recovery rise Sources: Markit,JPMorgan, ISM, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Global PMI – orders and jobs US employment

10 Price pressures and supply chain disruptions ease Data updated at close 3 June Sources: Ecowin, Markit, JPMorgan. *inverted Global PMI – prices Commodity markets -11.6% -11.2%

11 Looking familiar? Sources: Markit, JPMorgan.

12 Recuperated or still in recovery Source: Ecowin.

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