Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Microscale valuation analysis for the Langeoog island.

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Presentation transcript:

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Microscale valuation analysis for the Langeoog island Subproject 9 within the EU-INTERREG III B project COMRISK Dr. Stefan Reese / Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Contents  Background  Scales  Risk-Concept  Valuation Analysis  Damage Estimation  Final remarks Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks Risk-Concept Scales Background

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Background  The objective is a detailed risk assessment for the Langeoog Island  A detailed approach requires a very detailed and time-consuming methodology  The methodology is based on the procedures developed by the University Kiel within the MERK project Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks Risk-Concept Scales Background

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Scales Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks Risk-Concept Background Scales MACRO MESO Coastal lowlands < 5 m of Schleswig-Holstein MICRO

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Risk-Concept  Risk assessment requires several steps, procedures and large amount of data  In MERK an integrated Risk- Concept was developed  In this framework Risk analysis is apart from the risk evaluation and the risk management an important aspect Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks Scales Background Risk-Concept

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Valuation Analysis - Methodology  The methodology of valuation analysis was developed in the MERK-project  Six study areas to consider different structures Risk-Concept Damage Analysis Final remarks Scales Background Valuation Analysis Kiel Urban area Fehmarn Agricultural area Timmendorfer Strand und Scharbeutz Tourist area Kaiser-Wilhelm- Koog Agricultural area St. Peter-Ording Tourist area Study areas - MERK

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Valuation Analysis - Methodology  Different damage categories were assessed in MERK Risk-Concept Damage Analysis Final remarks Scales Background Valuation Analysis Trauma, Stress of Survivors higher Vulne- rability reduced Invest- ments Storm surge damage categories indirect intangible direct primary secondary tangible primary secondary Gross value added Jobs Guest beds Jobs Guest beds intangible primary secondary tangible primary secondary Buildings Private inventory Motor vehicles Traffic areas Agricultural land Livestock assets Forest land Real estate values Recreational land Fixed assets Stock values Wind power station Buildings Private inventory Motor vehicles Traffic areas Agricultural land Livestock assets Forest land Real estate values Recreational land Fixed assets Stock values Wind power station Inhabitants

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004  Macro- and mesoscale studies are mainly using state and federal statistics  Microscale methods require very detailed information about material and non-material values Risk-Concept Damage Analysis Final remarks Scales Background Valuation Analysis Valuation Analysis - Methodology

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Valuation Analysis - Methodology  Data Base ALK ALK DTM DTM DGK5 and ATKIS DGK5 and ATKIS Field work Field work Insurance companies Insurance companies Internal municipality data Internal municipality data Interviews with experts Interviews with experts Risk-Concept Damage Analysis Final remarks Scales Background Valuation Analysis Register of housesfrom Registry office:Langeoog Municipality:Langeoog Selection:Langeoog, Otto-Leuß-Weg Inhabitants Postcode Street House number HW NW Otto-Leuß-Weg Otto-Leuß-Weg Otto-Leuß-Weg Otto-Leuß-Weg Otto-Leuß-Weg Otto-Leuß-Weg Otto-Leuß-Weg Otto-Leuß-Weg Otto-Leuß-Weg 9 0 0

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Valuation Analysis - Methodology  Demarcation of the closer study area Risk-Concept Damage Analysis Final remarks Scales Background Valuation Analysis

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Valuation Analysis - Methodology  Different procedures for the particular damage categories  Example: Buildings at risk  Field work: type of building, number of storeys, age, use  GIS: extract the surface area of each building from the ALK Risk-Concept Damage Analysis Final remarks Scales Background Valuation Analysis  Valuation: through Valuation Guidelines and Manufacturing Costs 2000 (BMV, 2001).

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Valuation Analysis - Methodology Risk-Concept Damage Analysis Final remarks Scales Background Valuation Analysis

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Valuation Analysis - Methodology  Example: Inhabitants at risk  Determination of addresses from the field mapping respectively the official land property register  Query of the number of inhabitants from the internal municipality residential register Risk-Concept Damage Analysis Final remarks Scales Background Valuation Analysis

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Valuation Analysis - Methodology Risk-Concept Damage Analysis Final remarks Scales Background Valuation Analysis Register of housesfrom Registry office:Langeoog Municipality:Langeoog Selection:Langeoog, Otto-Leuß-Weg Inhabitants Postcode Street House numberHW NW 26465Otto-Leuß-Weg Otto-Leuß-Weg Otto-Leuß-Weg Otto-Leuß-Weg Otto-Leuß-Weg Otto-Leuß-Weg Otto-Leuß-Weg Otto-Leuß-Weg Otto-Leuß-Weg 90 0

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Valuation Analysis - Results Risk-Concept Damage Analysis Final remarks Scales Background Valuation Analysis Results by heights and damage categories < 0 m asl m asl m asl m asl m asl Inhabitants Employees Tourism capacity (beds) Buildings7,934,000 €0 € 1,306,300 € Private inventory356,200 €0 € 2,900 € Real estate values400 €1,500 €10,700 €166,400 €2,793,800 € Motor vehicles16,500 €0 € 105,800 € Traffic areas0 €4,200 €11,400 €97,100 €3,886,300 € Agricultural land0 €100 €600 €121,900 €435,800 € Live stock assets0 € Forest land0 € 100 €1,900 €39,000 € Recreational land0 €200 €1,200 €3,600 €1,592,500 € Gross value added 490,000 €0 € 161,000 € Fixed assets1,144,300 €0 € 227,200 € Stock value33,900 €0 € 6,000 € Total9,975,300 €6,000 €24,000 €390,900 €10,556,600 € %

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Valuation Analysis - Results Risk-Concept Damage Analysis Final remarks Scales Background Valuation Analysis Results by heights (< 5.5m asl) and damage categories Total% Inhabitants2,762 Employees1,277 Tourism capacity (beds)7,724 Buildings492,789,000 €52.90 Private inventory60,852,300 €6.53 Real estate values230,198,600 €24.71 Motor vehicles1,903,300 €0.20 Traffic areas14,684,900 €1.58 Agricultural land1,356,400 €0.15 Live stock assets323,600 €0.03 Forest land349,300 €0.04 Recreational land4,129,200 €0.44 Gross value added36,377,200 €3.91 Fixed assets80,663,200 €8.66 Stock value7,895,000 €0.85 Total931,522,000 € %

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Valuation Analysis - Results Risk-Concept Damage Analysis Final remarks Scales Background Valuation Analysis Spatial distribution of the inhabitants at risk

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Valuation Analysis - Results Risk-Concept Damage Analysis Final remarks Scales Background Valuation Analysis Spatial distribution of the damage potential

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Valuation Analysis - Results Risk-Concept Damage Analysis Final remarks Scales Background Valuation Analysis Comparison of the results with the study areas in MERK

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Damage Estimation - Methodology  A methodology for a damage estimation was developed in the MERK-project  First of all the flooding process and different dike breaching scenarios have to be modeled  Computation of the flood depths and flood duration within the investigation area Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Final remarks Scales Background Damage Analysis

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004  Computation of the damage expectation with depth-damage- functions for different damage categories  Functions were developed with an expert questioning  Example: private inventory Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Final remarks Scales Background Damage Analysis Damage Estimation - Methodology

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Final remarks Scales Background Damage Analysis Damage Estimation - Methodology

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Final remarks  Both the valuation analysis and the damage estimation still showing methodical weaknesses  In the EU-Project FLOODsite these deficits are supposed to be reduced  Standardization of risk analysis Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Scales Background Final remarks

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Thank you for your attention!

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Further information: