ANALYSIS OF CHANGING GAS HUB LIQUIDITY RESULTING FROM SURGE IN MARCELLUS/UTICA SHALE GAS PRODUCTION Bradford Leach, Benjamin Schlesinger, Ph.D. and John.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Canadas Natural Resources – Now and for the Future 1 North American Shale Gas Revolution Presentation to APEC By Dan Cowan – Petroleum Resources Branch,

Advertisements

Natural Gas Perspective Stakeholder Meeting of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States Regional Low Carbon Fuel Standard Stephen Leahy Northeast Gas Association.

Americas Natural Gas Market Challenge American Gas Association September 2006.

Tulsa Pipeline Expo Fourth Annual Meeting Fourth Annual Meeting August 28, 2012 Berne L. Mosley, Energy Projects Consulting, LLC.

Private Capital Conference February 24, 2011 Houston, TX A Tale of Two Fuels - Crude Oil and Natural Gas Supply.

2004/05 Winter Energy Market Assessment November 18, 2004 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Office of Market Oversight and Investigations Disclaimer:

Causes and Anticipated Impacts of Rising Natural Gas Prices Bob Gray, Arizona Corporation Commission

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis The U.S. Natural Gas and Shale Production Outlook for North American.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Outlook for U.S. shale oil and gas IAEE/AEA Meeting January 4, 2014.

ENERGY OUTLOOK: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Benjamin Schlesinger, Ph.D. Benjamin Schlesinger and Associates, Inc. (BSA) Bethesda, Maryland Black Sea.

Outlook on Natural Gas and LNG. Fuel Diversity in New England Recent build-out ~10,700 MW Gas-fired generation (% Total NE GWh) –1999: 16% –2003: 41%

North American Natural Gas Markets July 27 th 2009 J. Cameron Bailey CFA President and Chief Executive Officer.

Natural Gas Outlook National Association of State Energy Officials State Heating Oil and Propane Conference August 30, 2004 William Trapmann Energy Information.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis US Extractive Industry Overview: Oil, Gas, and Coal United States.

Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and Propane Outlook Briefing for the State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference Asheville, NC Mike Burdette Petroleum Division,

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Summer 2005 Energy Price Review: Gulf Coast Storms Exacerbate Tight Natural Gas Supplies; Already High Prices Driven.

Natural Gas A World of Volatility Patrick J. Strange Senior Vice President Energy Marketing & Trading Conference University of Houston January 26, 2006.

© 2008 ICF International. All rights reserved. NYSERDA Case 1 Results June 24, 2009 Contacts: Kevin R. Petak ( ) Vice President, Gas Market.

© 2008 ICF International. All rights reserved. New York Gas Market Overview Based on NYSERDA Case 1 (n0908) March 2009 Contacts: Kevin R. Petak (

1 CERT Presentation –May v7 The Evolution of Natural G as and Power Markets May 31 st 2005 CERT –The Energy Roundtable.

Jostein Dahl Karlsen Chair, Working Party for Fossil Fuels, WPFF International Energy Agency Energy Perspectives Annual Petroleum Research School of Norway.

Elena Telegina Director of the Institute of Geopolitics and Energy Security Corresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences Dean, International Energy.

Presented by: Alan Mazaud Pennsylvania Rail Freight Seminar Harrisburg, PA May 23, 2013.

The Impacts of Rising Gasoline Prices Doug MacIntyre Energy Information Administration September 30, 2005 Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments.

Energy Action Plan Natural Gas Update California Public Utilities Commission California Energy Commission Randy Roesser December 8,

Gas Market Dynamics – The Ups and Downs March 11, 2009.

Usage Guidelines Slide Description: Cover Slide Usage: Introductory slide. Try to keep the slide title and subtitle short and clear. Optionally include.

Canada’s Energy Futures 2011: Shifting Trends Preview of Key Results & Comparison with Past Projections Abha Bhargava Matthew Hansen Bryce VanSluys 30.

Michael Dirrane Director, Northeast Marketing NASUCA 2012 Annual Meeting November 13, 2012.

Frank J. Macchiarola Executive Vice President May 6, 2015 Conference of Western Attorneys General The LNG Export Opportunity.

1 Legislative Session February 17, Proposed Legislative Changes Increase WPA bonding capacity from $1 billion to $3 billion Expand State Treasurer’s.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis EIA Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook NASEO 2015 Winter Energy.

THE NORTH AMERICAN LNG OPPORTUNITY APEGGA, Calgary, Alberta.

Delivering commercial insight to the global energy industry Wood MackenzieEnergy Natural Gas Markets Enter an Era of Unprecedented Uncertainty.

Natural Gas Outlook North American Energy Standards Board (NAESB) Annual Meeting September 17, 2003 Barbara Mariner-Volpe, Energy Information Administration.

LNG North American Summit 2008 Houston, Texas June 19, 2008 James M. Kendell Energy Information Administration U.S. Natural Gas.

 CAN WE HAVE A BRIGHT NATURAL GAS FUTURE WITH NEAR-TERM UNCERTAINTY? Presented by: Paul D. Holtberg GTI Baseline Center May 17, 2001.

The Northeast Natural Gas Market in 2030 LNG EXPRESS CONFERENCE Boston, Massachusetts September 21, 2006 William Trapmann Natural Gas Analysis Team Leader.

Natural Gas: Summer 2005 Steve Harvey FERC July 25, 2005 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Natural Gas Markets: Recent Changes and Key Drivers for LDC Gas Forum.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Status and outlook for shale gas and tight oil development in the.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Outlook for shale gas and tight oil development in the U.S. For Bank.

Examining Natural Gas Markets C HRIS M C G ILL M ANAGING D IRECTOR, P OLICY A NALYSIS M ARCH 5, 2008.

1 USAEE/IEAA North American Conference Pittsburgh, PA October 28, 2015 Energy Infrastructure Plenary: Natural Gas Pipelines Donald F. Santa President &

1 Office of the Chief Economist Global economic growth The outlook for the Australian resources sector Mark Cully APPEA Tax and Commercial Conference 29.

California Energy Commission Integrated Energy Policy Report Commissioner Workshop: Highlights of the Natural Gas Outlook Report November 03, 2015 Ivin.

3 rd Annual Regional Energy Forum Global Coal Markets & U.S. LNG Opportunities Frostburg, Maryland November 6, 2015.

Natural Gas and Energy Reform Legislation Steve Crout Managing Director, Government Affairs American Gas Association.

Landon Derentz Energy Policy Advisor Bureau of Energy Resources U.S. Department of State Shale Gas and Tight Oil Production in the United States 1.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Outlook for shale gas and tight oil development in the U.S. For American.

Natural Gas Data Collection and Estimation Oklahoma Independent Petroleum Association June 6, 2010 Dallas, Texas James Kendell, Director, Natural Gas Division.

Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2007 DOE/NASEO 2007/08 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference October 9, 2007 Washington, DC Guy F. Caruso Administrator, Energy.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Outlook for shale gas and tight oil development in the U.S. for FLAME.

Overview & Status for: International Association of Energy Economists Alaska Chapter October 25, 2001 Anchorage, Alaska.

Peaks, Plans and (Persnickety) Prices Gas Storage: Finance, Investment, and Strategy Summit October 19, 2010 Houston, Texas James M. Kendell, Director.

Title Kevin Harris, ColumbiaGrid. Overview Historic Gas Prices Forward NG Prices Coal Prices 2.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Natural Gas Demand: New Domestic Uses and LNG Exports Natural Gas.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Outlook for shale gas and tight oil development in the U.S. For Joint.

International – Independent - Innovative Gas Overview AUGUST

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis North American Energy Markets for Energy Mexico 2016 January 26, 2016|

NATURAL GAS REVOLUTION, MEET THE BATTERY REVOLUTION, AND VICE VERSA Ben Schlesinger, Benjamin Schlesinger and Associates, LLC Bethesda, Maryland, USA Plenary.

WEFA Inc. Northeast Natural Gas Market Outlook Ron Denhardt Vice President, WEFA Energy Services September.

Gazprom on Hybrid Markets of Europe “Energy: Perspectives and Challenges” Regional Conference Novi Sad, March 11, 2016 Sergei Komlev Head of Contract Structuring.

ГММ -1( а ) Li Jianfei. By 2040, the world and, in particular, countries which have large and technologically advanced economies – such as the USA,

energy transfer interstate pipelines

Natural Gas Price Trends

Northeast Natural Gas Market Outlook

Is New England Over-Reliant On Natural Gas?

CPES Meeting Cromwell, CT

Presentation transcript:

ANALYSIS OF CHANGING GAS HUB LIQUIDITY RESULTING FROM SURGE IN MARCELLUS/UTICA SHALE GAS PRODUCTION Bradford Leach, Benjamin Schlesinger, Ph.D. and John A. Neri, Ph.D. IAEE-USAEE North American Conference Pittsburgh – October 28, 2015

Shale gas production has increased quickly in North America, undercutting costlier gas. 2 Source: EIA, BSA; state abbreviations indicate primary state(s); shale data re-aggregated in

Marcellus/Utica shales are now supplying about 1/4 US market. Natural Gas Supplies (Dry) Potential Produc- tion, Bcm Est. Recover- able, Tcm Yamal Bovanenkovo (alone) Marcellus/ Utica 197 (Sept. 2015) 12.8 Qatar159 (2013) Source: EIA, Drilling Productivity Report, September 2015; resource data from (Northeast excl. Antrim); Yamal data from Gazprom, incl. explored and provisionally estimated; Qatar data from EIA, BP 2015 statistical review.

Crude oil to Henry Hub gas price margins have tightened, but remain significant. 4 Source: BSA 2015, from CME-NYMEX settlements at Closing 11 Sept

The US is now building 67 mtpa of LNG export capacity, but how much will actually flow? US regulators have approved ‘a ton’ of LNG exports: DOE – mtpa of non-FTA exports approved, plus FTA FERC – 77.5 mtpa of export plant approved At this point, the market, not regulators, will decide, based on global forces, price, diversity. 5 Source: BSA 2015, from BP 2014 Statistical Review.

Market expectations of oil price uncertainty have increased in recent months. 6

Shale gas production has reduced spot gas prices at most North American hubs. 7 Alberta, US$2.65 Rockies, $3.12 Southern California Gas, $3.27 Source: BSA 2015, January 2015 hub prices from Platts Inside FERC’s Gas Market Report; note: Dominion refers to Dominion Appalachia (South Point), New England refers to Tennessee Gas Pipeline, Zone 6.. New England, $11.67 Henry Hub, $3.19 Dominion Hub, $1.75 So. Texas, $3.08 WINTER 2015

Marcellus/Utica hub prices are deeply depressed – starved for demand. 8 Alberta, US$2.18 Rockies, $2.47 Southern California Gas, $2.71 Source: BSA 2015, September 2015 hub prices from Platts Inside FERC’s Gas Market Report; note: Dominion refers to Dominion Appalachia (South Point), New England refers to Tennessee Gas Pipeline, Zone 6.. New England, $2.54 Henry Hub, $2.64 Dominion Hub, $1.16 So. Texas, $2.56 SUMMER 2015

Federal GOM Gas Production, Bcf/d

Changing deal counts – Gulf versus Marcellus/Utica

Contact Info: Ben Schlesinger

Benjamin Schlesinger and Associates, LLC The Bethesda Gateway 3 Bethesda Metro Center, Suite 700 Bethesda, MD Phone: (301) Fax: (301) Visit us at 15