Heisei militarisation, Australia, and our real security needs Richard Tanter Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability

1 Article 9 of the Japanese constitution (1 ) Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes. (2) In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of aggression of the state will not be recognized.

2 Prime Minister Abe Shinzo on upgrading the Defence Agency to the Ministry of Defence "a landmark event that marks the end of the postwar regime and will lay the groundwork for building a new state."

3 Japanese security - old stories The weight of history –The failures of reconciliation and border disputes US alliance –benefits and costs

4 Japanese security tensions - new stories Whose version of “Global responsibilities”? North Korea - again South Korea Taiwan mega-terrorism sea-lanes and Southeast Asia oil and gas - China and Russia the rise of China per se US extended nuclear deterrence

5 Keidanren’s threat board

6 Major Asia-Pacific Shipping Lanes

7 Japan-centred hemisphere

8 The view from China, Russia and Korea

9 What is new? Heisei militarization hollowing-out Article 9 shift from “defensive defense” to “threat- based defence” upgrading and expanding military forces willingness to rely on military solutions legitimation of use of military force abroad closer operational integration with US forces growing possibility of weapons of mass destruction

10 New security thinking The past: –Yoshida doctrine –defensive defence and comprehensive defence –the culture of Article 9 The future: –Proportional (to threats) defence –“Great power realism” –The new nationalism

New policy developments in Heisei militarisation Special forces Intelligence Overseas deployments Missile defence

12 The fading taboo - the nuclear option The means necessary –nuclear device –targeting capacity –delivery capacity The impediments –US –public opinion –IAEA and NPT The pressures The chances

13 Rokkasho spent fuel reprocessing plant

14 Japanese plutonium-mixed uranium oxide fuel container reloaded onto Pacific Pintail after admission by BFL of falsified quality control, June 2002

15 H-IIA F8 configuration

16 Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS)

17 Strategic contexts for Japanese risk Japanese politics - chronic crisis and democratic deficits delegitimising Japanese democracy abroad - history, sex and negative soft power the brevity of the American “unipolar moment” Japan’s choice: US vs. China? the delayed American choice on China the implausible solidity of Market-Leninism in China the restructuring of East Asia?

18 Japan and Australia military cooperation Japan already Australia’s number 5 military partner –intelligence collaboration, –Japanese bases in Australia –maritime cooperation –official exchanges –joint exercises –counter-terrorism activities –joint participation in a wide range of mainly US-led multilateral activities.

19 Japan-Australia Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation Systematises existing arrangements "affirming the common strategic interests and security benefits embodied in their respective alliance relationships with the United States, and committing to strengthening trilateral cooperation” Prefigures further bilateral expansion Expansion to four-way cooperation: –United States, Japan, Australia, India Nuclear options for both countries.

20 Militarising foreign policy: wrong horse, wrong race The anachronism of Great Power Realism for Japan The problem of alliance maintenance The problem of nationalisms What has been jettisoned in Japan The real security imperatives from regional expressions of global problems

21 Five global problems as security threats for Japan and Australia climate change - sudden or progressive infectitious disease pandemics energy and resource depletion and competition cross-border pollution regressive consequences of globalisation

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