Phil 1102: Critical Thinking September 15, 2005 Causal Reasoning & Causation.

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Presentation transcript:

Phil 1102: Critical Thinking September 15, 2005 Causal Reasoning & Causation

So… Anyone wuznuggle?

Causal Fallacies Confirming Evidence Post Hoc ergo propter hoc Failure to consider a common cause.

When causation? A perhaps more appropriate question: when is causation perceived?

Michotte Causation?

Michotte

To Play with…

Cartesian (and pre-modern) causation All causation happens instanteously when objects are touching. – Therefore, there is no causation at a distance. – Therefore, there is no such thing as space!

Hume’s Contention NO necessary connection, just repeated observation of one event following another. – We, through experience, develop laws such as ‘Events of this type follow events of that type’. – Events that fall under these laws are instances of causation. – REGULARITY theory

Regularity What is necessary for the fan? Sufficient for the fan?

Regularity Is the cue necessary for the 8 ball falling into the corner pocket? Is it sufficient? What about the earthquake?

Partial Is the cue ball partially responsible for the 8 ball? Is the non-existence of the earthquake also?

Partial Inhibitory Is the switch’s being off a partial inhibitory?

Lewis’s Contention: Counterfactual Some y is a cause of x iff if y had NOT happened, x wouldn’t have also

Overdetermination

Anscombe’s contention: realism Cause is productive, basic, real. Not analyzable in terms of ‘necessity’, ‘sufficiency’ or Lewis’ modality. Cause just is.

How to determine cause: Mill Method of agreement

How to determine cause: Mill Method of difference

Real case: Semmelweis Vienna general hospital. Death rates in maternity ward attended by Doctors from ‘childbed fever’. –1844 = 8.2%, –1845 = 6.8% –1846 = 11.4%. Death rates in maternity ward attended by midwives: –2.3% –2.0% –2.7%

Difference 1: the priest’s approach If the priest’s approach was causing the higher death rates, then changing the route by which the priest entered in the doctor’s should reduce the death rate in the doctor’s ward. Changing the route by which the priest entered did not reduce the death rate in the doctor’s ward Therefore, The priest’s approach was not causing the higher death rate.

Difference 2: Cadaverous matter If cadaverous matter (or something similar) were not the cause of childbed fever, then it would be very unlikely that requiring doctor’s to wash their hands in chlorinated lime should have an effect on the death rate in the doctor’s ward. Requiring doctor’s to wash their hands in chlorinated lime did have an effect on the death rate in the doctor’s ward Therefore, it is very likely that cadaverous matter (or something similar) was the cause of childbed fever.

How to determine cause: Mill Method of concomitant variation

How to determine cause: Mill Method of residues

Correlation

Causation? Reading is sufficient for doing well on the exam

Causation? Reading is necessary for doing well on the exam

Causation? Reading is necessary but not sufficient for doing well on the exam

Causation?