Chapter 3 Marriage & the Family Focus on 3 issues: 1) Race differences in marriage and family structure: * changes over time; * economic explanations. 2) Male marriage premium 3) Divorce: –* economic analysis; –* economic consequences.

Race Differences in Marital Status Table 1: Year 2000 Figure 1: Shows changes over time: –Big divergence by race in 1970s; –Now a 20% difference in proportion married. Figure 2: Race difference driven by differential growth in % never married. Why Care? –Key is family income and poverty. –Table 2: see similarity between white mother-only and AA two-parent.

Economic Explanations Three Explanations: –1) Changes in marriage markets –2) Changes in wage rates –3) Role of the welfare system. Probably all 3 played a role, some for all women; some for specific groups of women.

Marriage Markets William Julius Wilson: The Truly Disadvantaged and When Work Disappears. Decline in marriage: reflects declining marriage prospects of AA women (resulting from declining labor mkt position of AA men) Key: in 1970s, dramatic decline in real wages and employment rates of less skilled/less educated men; hit AA men particularly hard; this trend continues to today but biggest hit in 1970s.

Continued Result: for AA men: for those who work, lower real wages; lower employment rates. So less attractive as marriage partner since cannot support family.

MMPI Male Marriageable Pool Index: MMPI ratio of # employed men to # of women (calculated separately by race and age; also could do by education) MMPI = [# empl men / # women] Balance in marriage market: if MMPI  1, poor prospects for women At birth: MMPI = 1. But what if MMPI falls?

More on MMPI Reasons for  MMPI: –1)  # empl men –2)  incarceration rates –3)  mortality rates Evidence from Great Depression supports idea of men’s ability to support family as being important in marriageability. See Table 3: –Shows MMPI for 1950s to 1980s; –MMPI shown as # empl men per 100 women. –Rate always lower for AA; AA decline over time.

MMPI and Female-Headed Families See Table 4: Shows changes from 1960 to 1980: –Links racial pattern in %  MMPI and %  proportion of families headed by female. –Most regions/races have  MMPI; –Always bigger  for AA than whites. –Biggest  in NE and NC (where blue- collar job loss the worst) –Big  MMPI associated with big  female headed HH. –MMPI changes are NOT only thing (see % female heads in west) – Also: other researchers note big  marriage for employed AA men too.

Importance of Women’s Wage Rates Gains from trade model: –As women’s wages rise, differences in mkt productivity between men and women falls so gains are reduced. –Data supporting this possible cause of lower marriage rates: sex wage differences less for AA than whites. S & D model: –As women’s wages rise, their S of marriage curve shifts back to left, reducing marriage rates. Also, as women  education, they delay fertility. So like-educated men face worse marriage prospects too.

Welfare system Key:  “production” while single. –S & D model: if Z f , then likelihood of marrying falls. History of Welfare –Social Security Act of 1935: created ADC (became AFDC); now TANF. –Beneficiaries: poor mother-only families. –In 1935: mostly widows (deemed “deserving” of support) Even today: monthly $ support quite low (range from $200 to $600 or so).

Welfare and Marriage Some scholars claim that providing welfare  marriage. –Benefits only given to single-parent families; usually with limited labor market skills. –Could have differential impact by race since AA women somewhat more likely to be low-skilled than white women. Empirical evidence weak. –Approach: Compare female headship with policy changes: Marriage  in 1970s but welfare falling at same time. Conclusion: –Moffitt: “..none of the studies find effects sufficiently large to explain…the increase in female headship in the late 1960s and early 1970s.”