Estimating segregation and diversity of ethnic groups over time in England and Wales, 1991-2001 Albert Sabater Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey.

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Presentation transcript:

Estimating segregation and diversity of ethnic groups over time in England and Wales, Albert Sabater Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research Understanding Population Trends and Processes

Estimating segregation and diversity of ethnic groups over time in England and Wales, Outline Motivation Main aims Data (census and full estimates) Method (indices of segregation and diversity) Results (nationally and for some LADs)

Motivation (recent views of segregation) Segregation at levels of black ghettoes in US cities (Guardian, 1 Sept 2005); Are we sleepwalking towards apartheid? (Sunday Times, 18 Sept 2005); Multiculturalism is falling to bring Britain’s races together (Ted Cantle, Times, 21 Sept 2005); Debate based on the view that too many Black people or too many Asians living together is a problem, while the same dominance by White people is acceptable. (GLA, 10 Nov 2005).

Main aims 1.Examine the impact of using census output on measures of segregation and diversity; 2.Analyse segregation measures over time using cohort comparisons; 3.Evaluate challenges posed by boundary revisions.

Data Two data sources 1.Census output as published (CASWEB) 2.Full population estimates (CCSR, soon at ESDS)

Enhancement, 1991 and 2001 censuses AdjustmentsGlobal impact, England and Wales 1. Population definition a.Students, transferred from vacation address to term-time address (1991 only) 53,975 net addition 213,628 net gain for 103 districts 159,653 net loss for 273 districts a.Population date, change from census day to mid-year 1991: April 21 to June : April 29 to June 30 43,094 net addition 41,006 net addition 2. Non-response not estimated within census outputIn 1991, 1.6% addition In 2001, 0.5% addition 3. Harmonisation of geographical units Smallest 1991 areas converted to 2001 Census units 139 of 403 local authority boundaries and 4,398 of 9,527 electoral ward boundaries changed involving more than 1% of their population

Impact on population change by ethnic group in EW

Method 1.Index of Dissimilarity (an unequal geographical spread); 2.Index of Isolation (high proportion of ethnic groups); 3.Reciprocal Diversity Index (approximate equality of numbers of each ethnic group).

Let's recapitulate objective 1 Examine the impact of using census output on measures of segregation and diversity; Example…

Index of dissimilarity between for EW -measured across wards- ID values 1991 Census 2001 Census Difference White Caribbean African Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese Full estimates 2001 Full estimates Difference

Index of isolation between for EW -measured across wards- P* values 1991 Census 2001 Census Difference White Caribbean African Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese Full estimates 2001 Full estimates Difference

Index of diversity between for LADs of EW 1991 Full estimates 2001 Full estimates

Let's recapitulate objective 2 Analyse segregation measures over time using cohort comparisons; Example… Aged

Index of dissimilarity between for EW

Index of isolation between for EW

Let's recapitulate objective 3 Evaluate challenges posed by boundary revisions. Example…

Index of dissimilarity between for EW and Leicester -measured across wards- ID values 1991 Census 1991 Census 2001b Difference White Caribbean African Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese Census 2001b Difference

To sum up -Ethnic groups have become more evenly distributed since 1991; -Groups with a recent history of immigration (African, Pakistani and Bangladeshi) have increased their average local concentration since 1991; -Diversity is increasing, and becoming more widespread; -Ethnic groups vary their evenness and exposure at different life-stages; -The impact of boundary changes is significant and can be of the same order of changes over time.

Dissemination of full estimates Summary ward data available at