Congress, Incumbency, Scandals, Voting Behavior and Patterns, & the Media

Incumbency Advantage Local Advantage Helping constituency directly Highly visible Funerals, Red Ribbon Cuttings, Community Events ¼ of Congressional district have met their representatives ½ of Congressional district know their name 95% of Congress is reelected in most election years 88% of Congress is reelected during “bad years”

Indirect Advantage “Scare-off” effect the ability of an office holder to fend off challengers from even trying to contest the election This is, in large part, due to institutional advantages: High name recognition / Large War Chests (money) / Staffs Campaign Experience

Senators aren’t as lucky… High visibility contest More publicity than House races Challengers receive more/equal attention Voters recognize Senate challengers more easily *Also a study was conducted finding that the quality of challengers in Senate races is higher than in House races, thus, making it more likely for incumbents to be upset

Redistricting People move + Populations Change = Need to revise representation The goal is for every Congressional representative to represent the same number of citizens Obvious exceptions for Wyoming and Vermont (statewide populations are lower than average Congressional districts) Which states have been losing representation?

Gerrymandering Congress controls redistricting thus- the Majority Power controls redistricting It makes Incumbency even safer other times.. It can be used to punish (lessened by unwillingness to run a costly election)

Scandals Not just the traditional financial problems: bribery, payoffs, money laundering, corruption Most incumbents don’t lose reelection even after scandals….

Coattail Effect Members of Congress ride the coattails of the President paradise or peril So why is the Coattail Effect diminishing every election?

Midterm Elections Pose great threat to incumbents Scandals, economic downturns, trials and tribulations The 6 th Year Itch After 6 years, the voters are restless for a change …its about change – not about approval or disapproval Congressional Elections are BIG DEALS Newt Gingrich example

2002 Midterm Election Previous 14 midterm elections: opposing party lost an average of twenty-six seats 2002 “Remarkable exception” – first time since 1934 Republicans gained a handful of seats in House & Senate Why? 1. Bush Campaigning and Karl Rove Strategy 2. Enormous Post 9/11 Fundraising 3. War on Terror 4. DC Area Sniper Attacks

Voting Behavior 40% eligible adults vote regularly 25% are occasional voters % Voter Turnout is much lower than Turkey (77) and Sweden (80%) AGEEDUCATIONINCOME

Patterns Amongst Race & Ethnicity Whites vote more often than Blacks (income) 60% White Turnout 50% Black Turnout NO Difference - Highly educated / Wealthier Blacks The South has lower turnout than the country What is the historic reason for this? 1965 Voting Rights Act Black Voters/Leaders Surged Hispanic Vote- More Hispanics than Blacks!

Voter Turnout Stinks 1996 Election Worst. Turnout. Ever. WHY? Does it matter?

Campaign Advertisements Positive Ads / Negative Ads / Contrast Ads Spot Ads –Quick lil’ advertisements in 10,30 or 60 secs. Negative Ads Work! Voters frequently vote against the other candidate rather than in support of the other

Inoculation Ads When faced with a Negative Ad, what’s a candidate to do? Stay above the fray? Or drop down to the challenger’s level? Historically candidates ignored negative ads Famous Negative Ads from the 1980s changed that Defeated incumbents with successful advertisements “An attack unanswered is an attack agreed to” Incumbents began running pre-emptive advertisements in anticipation of their opponents negative ads.

Free Media Uncontrolled, unpaid attention in the media Speeches Actions (Events) Campaign Spokespeople Opponent Gaffes Successes Polls Is this unfair? All the news that’s fit to print? Or… if it bleeds it leads!

Campaign Strategy RE: Media The Media is more influential than Campaign Ads…..- So how do Campaigns influence the Media to receive favorable/positive coverage? First- Isolation “What they don’t know won’t hurt them”? This reduces the likelihood that campaigns will make mistakes that may damage themselves

Campaign Strategy RE: Media Second- Staged Media Events Brief, clever quotes called SOUND BITES These are stages, controlled environments with meaningful quotes, backdrops and people. These fill news holes. Third- Spin Favorable interpretations of news You may be rallying support within your base, but the opponents can spin your actions/comments against you!

Campaign Strategy RE: Media Fourth- Media Appearances Less stressful, but equally as public/viewed They can present themselves in front of less hostile audiences with less critical hosts Fifth- Debates Candidates super-rehearse their responses You can practice what you say, but you cannot control what the media chooses to highlight!

Candidates & Technology FDR & RadioJFK & TV Howard Dean & The Internet