Out-Of-Compliance Grocery UES Measure Recommendations Regional Technical Forum July 15, 2014

Presentation Outline Background Measure Overview Staff Highlighted Areas UES Workbook – Measure Descriptions – Measure Analysis and Input Details – Savings, Cost, and Cost Effectiveness RTF Staff Recommendation Proposed Decision 2

Background Multiple Grocery measures found Out-of-Compliance – Subsequent analysis determined remaining potential small – Extended sunset date at November 2013 meeting – Staff to develop plan to bring back into compliance Grocery measures in question: 1.ECMs for Walk-ins – Done 2.Walk-in Evaporator Fan ECMotor Controllers – Done 3.Compressor Head Fan Motor Retrofit to ECM – Done 4.Display Case LEDs (Open Cases) - Done 5.Floating Head Pressure Controls for Single Compressor Systems - Done 6.Door Gasket Replacement - Done 7.Auto Door Closers 8.Strip Curtains 3

Background – Remaining Potential 4 Regional Priority SectorMeasure Remaining Potential aMW (Cadmus) Remaining Potential aMW for next 2 years (PECI) Notes 1Grocery Grocery - Display Case LEDs (Open Cases) 0.48N/A Measure of interest for PECI 2Grocery Grocery - Floating Head Pressure Controls for Single Compressor Systems Remaining potential is small for PECI program (when measure is limited to grocery sector) 3GroceryGrocery - Autoclosers Remaining potential is small for PECI program 3GroceryGrocery - Door Gasket Replacement Remaining potential is small for PECI program 3GroceryGrocery - Strip Curtains Remaining potential is small for PECI program Note: Remaining potential based on PNW territory only.

What hasn’t been done Estimating measure interactions very limited – Only looked at HVAC interaction within measure – Possible to have interactions among measures 5 RTF Measure Interactions Auto Door Closers Display Case LEDs (Open Cases) Door Gasket Replacement Floating Head Pressure Controls for Single Compressor Systems Strip Curtains Auto Door Closers xx Display Case LEDs (Open Cases) Door Gasket Replacement x x Floating Head Pressure Controls for Single Compressor Systems Strip Curtains xx

RTF direction to take Last time RTF agreed with staff recommendation to ignore interactions for these small saver grocery measures – Staff estimate is that interactions are likely small and do not warrant further research – Furthermore, estimation methods of measures are varied and it may not be practical to reliably determine interactions 6

Door Auto Closer on walk-ins and reach-ins 7

Measure Overview What does it do? – Installs a new Door Auto Closer on existing walk-in or reach-in case that either has one that is broken or does not have one at all – Savings occur from: Runtime reduction on refrigeration system Load reduction on store HVAC heating system – Assuming grocery stores heat most of the year 8

Recommendation Memo Items Recommendation Memo ItemStaff Response The amount of time that doors are normally unintentionally left ajar, the Doorway Open Time Factor, is set at 25% of daily hours for all four measures. This assumption needs to be based on measured data. Staff has no basis for estimating the Doorway Open Time Factor. Staff has assumed 25% for the purposes of this analysis, but note that this value could reasonably be between 0% and 100%. Savings are directly proportional to this value. Door open time is based on ADM study and PECI measured data from gasket test as a baseline. The savings figure for the reach-in glass doors medium temperature measure is estimated assuming a 66% factor of the reach-in glass door low temperature measure figures. Support with data. Small saver negates need to collect primary data. Professional Judgment will be used. 9

Staff Highlighted Areas Unintentional door open time – Based on professional judgment only – Savings vary by orders of magnitude within the range of reasonable assumptions 10

Unintentional Door Open Time Value is meant to represent time door is left unintentionally open (i.e. almost closed) – Not the same as door open/close times for accessing product Gasket study open times as a reality test 11 Weighted average of all sitesMean Minutes open per day Autocloser reduction in unintentional time left open Minutes unintentionally left open per day Hours unintentionally left open per day Low-temp Reach-in Avg. 5.0% %180.3 Med-temp Reach-in Avg. 3.6% %130.2 Low-temp Walk-in Avg. 4.5% %160.3 Med-temp Walk-in Avg. 24.3% %871.5

Unintentional Door Open Time But savings are directly proportional to this estimate, with no data to support it 12

Savings, Cost, & Cost Effectiveness Go to the following sections in the Presentation tab in the proposed measure workbook: – Measure savings – Measure costs – Measure TRC B/C ratios 13

RTF Staff Recommendation Deactivate measure due to high uncertainty in Doorway Open Time Factor and resulting high uncertainty in savings. Set the measure status to “Deactivated” 14

Proposed Decision “I _______________ move that the RTF set the measure status of the ‘Door Auto Closer’ measure to ‘Deactivated.’” 15

Strip Curtains on Walk-ins 16

Measure Overview What does it do? – Installs a strip curtain on a walk-in freezer or cooler where none existed before (so my picture was a little misleading) – Savings occur from: Load reduction of refrigeration system Load reduction on store HVAC heating system – Assuming grocery stores heat most of the year 17

Recommendation Memo Items Recommendation Memo ItemStaff Response The measure definition should clarify whether or not the measure applies to walk-in units with loading dock exterior doors. The average environmental temperatures used in the ADM HIM report apparently include some fraction of exterior spaces. The HVAC interaction factor has a small impact on savings. However infiltration air is large. Professional judgment needed. Research Plan called for the collection of Time Door Open per Day for both pre- and post-installation periods to ensure the savings calculations account for any post installation variation in door open times. Results were presented from metering in August 2011, which showed that the results were not statistically significant. New data is needed. Should we use non-statistically significant data for this parameter? Professional judgment needed. However, savings only range by a factor of 2 over a very wide range of assumptions. The values for the Temperature of Surroundings parameter, which are found on the “Assumptions” worksheets for the various building types, need to be based on regional measured data. If limited to walk-ins that no exterior doors, likely that surrounding temperatures are similar in CA grocery stores compared to the PNW. 18

Staff Highlighted Areas Temperature of Surroundings Parameter – Some walk-ins open to unconditioned spaces – No adjustment for PNW compared to CA Strip Curtain Takeback – Do door open times increase after strip curtains are installed? – Results are only moderately sensitive to this effect. Strip Curtain EUL – CA program evaluation found that measure was typically replaced well before commonly assumed lifetime. 19

Temperature of Surroundings Used to determine infiltration air temp A small swing of infiltration temp produces a large swing in savings – Savings increase as infiltration temp increases ADM study results use storage area temps in respective establishments – These include some indoor and unconditioned zones No easy way to access ADM data on climate zone weightings to discern % of outdoor/indoor walk-ins used Recommend limiting measure eligibility to walk-ins that open to conditioned spaces only – Likely that storage areas/grocery stores same in PNW and CA – Walk-ins that open to outdoor spaces have higher infiltration air temps; savings potential may be much larger 20

Strip Curtain Takeback Door open time is a primary determinant Some data on pre-install door open time No statistical data on the ratio of post- to pre- install door open times Some anecdotal evidence does suggest significant takeback can occur (i.e. post/pre ratio > 1) Results only vary by a factor of 2 across a wide range of assumptions (from post/pre ratio of 0.25 to 3). 21

Example of Pre- and Post- Door Open Times 22

Example of Pre- and Post- Door Open Times 23 December 2007 BPA M&V presentation

Strip Curtain Takeback Effect of varying post-install times on savings. 24

Strip Curtain Takeback Recommend incorporating some level of takeback in estimate to – reflect anecdotal evidence – place savings in the middle of the range of reasonable estimates Staff using a ratio of 2:1 for post-pre door open times No significant data on this estimate Up to RTF professional judgment 25

Strip Curtain Lifetime Typical EUL is four years. However, CA impact evaluation found that program-installed strip curtains were typically maintained more frequently. 26 Source: Commercial Facilities Contract Group Direct Impact Evaluation Study ID: PUC Volume 3 of 3 HIM Appendices These findings suggest a mean time to replacement of 2 to 3 years.

Savings, Cost, & Cost Effectiveness Go to the following sections in the Presentation tab in the proposed measure workbook: – Measure savings – Measure costs – Measure TRC B/C ratios 27

RTF Staff Recommendation Limit eligibility of measure to walk-ins that open to conditioned spaces only Assume a level of takeback that results in savings in the middle of the range of possible savings. – Staff recommends a post/pre door open time ratio of 2. Set measure life to 2.5 years. 28

Proposed Decision “I _______________ move that the RTF: Approve the ‘Strip Curtain’ measure as a “Small Saver” UES; – Limited to walk-ins that open to conditions spaces only – Using a post-install to pre-install door open time ratio of 2.0 – Using a measure life of 2.5 years Set the measure status to ‘Active;’ and Set the sunset date to July, 2019.” 29