American Government and Organization PS1301 Tuesday, 14 September

Outline Review ideology Discuss nature of public opinion The problem of low voter turnout

Who are the Liberals? Poor Low Education Low Strata Occupation MinorityUrban Jew, Catholic Democrats

Who are the Conservatives? Wealthy High Education High Status Occupation WhiteSuburbanProtestantRepublican

Minimum Wage

Homosexuals Serving in the Military

Ideology and Issues

Nature and Acquisition of Opinions and Values Process by which one acquires values and develops opinions is called socialization. Agents of socialization Family and Friends Family and Friends School School News media News media Lifetime Learning: new jobs, new friends, new neighborhoods Lifetime Learning: new jobs, new friends, new neighborhoods

Measuring Public Opinion Non-probability vs. probability sampling (for public opinion polling methods see Box 6- 1, p.190) (for public opinion polling methods see Box 6- 1, p.190)

Principle of Probability Sampling A sample will be representative of the population from which it is selected if all members of the population have an equal chance of being selected in the sample. We can do this by selecting respondents randomly; each respondent has an equal chance of being selected Accuracy is a function of sample size (and proportion). Accuracy is also a function of the way the question is worded (more on this later) as well as context

Question wording: Example of Abortion Hard reasons women’s health seriously threatened women’s health seriously threatened rape rape birth defects birth defects Soft reasons low income low income not married and does not want to marry not married and does not want to marry married but does not want more children married but does not want more children interfered with work or education interfered with work or education

Question wording “Should abortion be legal as it is now, or legal only in the cases of rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother, or should it not be permitted at all?” 48% legal as it is now 48% legal as it is now 43% limited to rape, incest, health of mother 43% limited to rape, incest, health of mother 9% not permitted at all 9% not permitted at all Source: CBS/NYT January 1989

Question wording “Do you think abortions should be legal under any circumstances, legal under certain circumstances, or illegal under all circumstances? 28% legal 28% legal 53% under certain circumstances 53% under certain circumstances 19% illegal 19% illegal Source: Gallup/Newsweek January 1989

Differences Same time, same sample. Why the difference? Respondents were not given the same alternatives. Explicitly state circumstances that fit the “hard reasons”.

Other Examples If a woman wants to have an abortion and her doctor agrees to it, should she be allowed to have an abortion or not? Yes 65% Please tell me whether or not it should be possible for a pregnant woman to obtain a legal abortion if she wants it for any reason? Yes 36% Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Every woman who wants to have an abortion should be able to have one? Agree 61% Please tell me whether or not it should be possible for a pregnant woman to obtain a legal abortion if she wants it for any reason. Yes 41%

Opinion on Abortion

Views on Abortion by Religion

Voter Turnout Lower for congressional elections than Presidential elections Decline in voter turnout How low is it? Does it matter? The role of age and education

Decline in Turnout

Turnout in Comparative Perspective