Figure 1: Global time series plots of CH 4 and δ 13 C of CH 4 from 1999-2014. The recent rise in CH 4 is concurrent with a decrease in δ 13 C of CH 4.

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Presentation transcript:

Figure 1: Global time series plots of CH 4 and δ 13 C of CH 4 from The recent rise in CH 4 is concurrent with a decrease in δ 13 C of CH 4. Figure 2: Illustration of uncertainties in attribution of global CH 4 sources. L to R: fossil fuels, ruminants, rice production, landfills, wetlands, and biomass burning. Mikaloff-Fletcher et al (illustrative) Bousquet et al (illustrative) Why δ 13 C end-members? Measurements of δ 13 C can be used to constrain global methane sources (Fig. 1). However, the global-weighted end-member values are not well characterized. By knowing where the end-member values fall horizontally on the scale (Fig. 3), we can estimate how much each of the sources contribute to overall methane concentrations in the atmosphere. Database We compiled a global inventory of natural gas molecular and istopic measurements from the peer-reviewed literature and government reports. The inventory contains data from 45 countries, 179 basins, 597 geological formations, and unique samples. On a country- level basis, the data represent 79% of world natural gas production. Figure 3: Mass balance of three CH 4 source categories. “Microbial” includes wetlands, ruminants, rice, landfills, and termites. Figure 4: Global sample count of CH 4 -δ 13 C for all types of natural gas and coal production. Figure 7: Time series plot of modeled CH 4 emissions from different sources. The recent increase in global CH 4 can be attributed primarily to microbial emissions. Model adapted from Schwietzke et al. (2014) assuming -45 ‰ as the vaue for integrated fossil fuel methane emissions. Global Inventory of Natural Gas Geochemical Measurements for Improved Atmospheric Methane Modeling Victoria Arling 1, Stefan Schwietzke 1, John Miller 1, Sylvia Michel 2, Andrea Sack 2, Bruce Vaughn 2, Owen Sherwood 2 1 NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Global Monitoring Division, Boulder Colorado, 2 INSTAAR University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado Figure 6: Visual representations of three analyzed parameters (δ 13 C, δ 2 H, and C 2 :C 1 ) and three types of production (conventional, shale, coal) in the global database. Statistical weighting of the geochemical parameters by basin-level production is still in progress. Introduction Methane (CH 4 )is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) which accounts for ~20% of the GHG radiative forcing over the industrial era (Dlugokencky et al., 2011). The rise in atmospheric CH 4 has been non-linear, with a period of relative stability from , followed by a renewed increase since 2008 (Nisbet et al., 2014; Fig. 1). The reasons for these variations are not completely understood, partly because specific contributions from natural and anthropogenic sources remain unclear (Fig. 2). Results Data for different types of natural gas production (conventional, coal and shale gas) are presented in Figs. 5 and 6. Note how CH 4 -  13 C values are skewed to more negative values, because of the importance of isotopically-depleted microbial gas. By weighting the data by continent-level gas production (BP, 2015) integrated over the years , we obtain a global, production-weighted average of ± 0.3 ‰ (bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals) for the CH 4 -  13 C of conventional gas. This value is considerably lower than the value (-40 ‰) typically used in global, top-down models of the global CH 4 budget. This could have a major consequence in methane emissions estimates (Fig. 7) Figure 5: Generic classification of natural gases in the database, according to Whiticar (1999). References Dlugokencky EJ et al., (2011). Phil. Trans. Royal Soc. A369 (1943), 2058–2072. Nisbet et al., (2014). Science 343: Mikaloff-Fletcher et al., (2004). Global Biogeochemical Cycles. 18(4): GB4004. Bousquet et al., (2006). Nature 443(7710): Whiticar (1999). Chemical Geology 161: Schwietzke et al., (2014). Environmental Science & Technology. 48(14): We thank Martin Schoell, Guiseppe Etiope and Edward Duglokenchy for assistance with data. Microbial