Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications DETEC Federal Office for the Environment FOEN Copenhagen 22 May 2015 Division Economics and Environmental Monitoring Division «Mapping Europe’s Environmental Future»

2 Agenda 1.Project idea  Core issue  Output  Challenge  Documents 2.Project organisation  Role of Contractor / Core group / FLIS  Working principles  timeline 3.First discussion and input to methodology  Outlines Webinar 29 April 2015  Discussion

3 1.Project idea for each country now and in the future with focus on the environmental GMTs GMT8 Growing pressures on ecosystems GMT9 Increasingly severe consequences of climate changes GMT10 Increasing environmental pollution basis existing (!) information, data, models, expert judgement Core issue What are Global Megatrends’ impacts on Europe?

4 1. Project idea Easily understandable («mapping») Country specific documentation explaining results and methodology Final output (proposal)

5 1. Project idea Development of a methodology Applicable by all EIONET countries Pragmatic > use of existing techniques, material etc. Big question Is it possible to define a methodological approach that can be used by everyone and yet reflects potential GMT impact at the country level? Challenge

6 1. Project idea CH Proposal Mapping Europe’s Environmental Future Swiss presentation of project idea on FLIS-webinar on 29 April 2015 (2 co-referates by U. Lorenz and M. Havranek) Tender description elaborated documents ‘til now

7 ? Does this meet your needs ? Tour de table

8 2. Organisation Stage 1 A methodology has to be developed and agreed CH-funds external contractor supporting methodological development FLIS «Core Group» (4 - 5 other pilot countries) gives input and expertise for methodological development Stage 2 First testing results of method & further development of methodology Stage 3 EIONET FLIS group members and other NRC’s apply methodology e.g. through E3I initiative EEA/FLIS report

9 2. Organisation contractor – what is their role? Stage 1 & 2 responsible for the development of a methodological approach supported by the «Core Group» writes the final report describing methodology supports testing Stage 3 Refinement of methodology

10 Core group – what is its role? Stage 1 & 2 Giving inputs to contractor Active participation (review, exchange) Tests emerging methodology (1 meeting) Presents first results at NRC FLIS meeting Nov 2015 WHO?  5 countries motivated persons countries with experience but also: 1 representative without previous knowledge 2. Organisation

11 FLIS group – what is its role? Stage 1 & 2 Following development on FLIS platform through «diary» / interim reports Participation in methodological discussions, input via FLIS platform and regular meetings Stage 3 Application of method (voluntary…) Long-term process: contribution to an EEA report e.g. through E3I process (→ E3I) 2. Organisation

12 E3I Global Megatrends analysis & implications

13 E3I Global Megatrends analysis & implications  Work through cross-NRC expert group  1-2 country workshops in 2015, more in 2016?  Pilot workshop in Slovakia (May 2015)  Country workshops to:  To present and discuss SOER 2015 Assessment of Global megatrends (GMT)  To discuss countries’ approaches to assessment of GMT implications at the national level  To discuss possible methodological approach(es) (Swiss methodology?) towards the assessment of GMTs implications at the national level  Cross-NRC expert meeting for relevant NRCs (November 2015, back to back with NRC FLIS)  Summary of the results - a study/technical report/fiches to feed to SOER 2020 (?)

14 working principles Any idea will be considered Aim to develop an output that is useful and used FLIS user / country led method development, knowledge co-creation Open to other NRCs (NRC climate, water…), e.g. through E3I workshops (but also more formally?) All levels of knowledge and expertise welcome: the project seeks to encourage learning by doing and capacity building Development through testing and refinement 2. Organisation

15 timeline Stage 1 & 2 May/June: Collecting initial inputs on methodology Aug/Sept: First testing phase with Core Group Sept: Workshop Core Group Nov: NRC FLIS presentation ‘state of art’ – recommendations for further procedure Output Stage 1 & 2 Joint report of the European Environment Agency EEA and the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN). 2. Organisation

16 timeline Stage 3 To be discussed Output Stage 3 EEA & FLIS report 2. Organisation

17 3. First input to methodology

18 Webinar 29 April 2015 – Co-referates : some outlines Define the goal of the project carefully Do start with a reference point (e.g. environmental goal) when starting trend analysis Causal – Loop Models are an important feature regarding trends. Develop it around the reference point What is the definition of a GMT (composition, single event, summary of single factors)? How do we link it to a system? Is a GMT a driving force by itself or are subtrends driving forces What does downscaling mean (e.g. scales) ? Use categories like exposure, sensitivity, vulnerability and potential impact 3. First input about methodology

19 Benchmark Delimitation towards risk discussion ? Oversimplification ? Focus on qualitative assessment Use 7th EAP for targets Disaggregate GMTs into sub-trends GMTs & complexity & composition Scales ? Key variables indicators connections

20 ?

21 Who would like to join the Core Group ? the one million dollar question …

22

23 Additional material

24 Owen first steps … Looking for targets (reference point) derived from 7th EAP Definition of GMT8-10 from SEI-Milieu Consortium 2010 ‘Splitting’ of GMT8-10 into ‘Subtrends’ (single event, composition, ?) from SEI-Milieu Consortium 2010

25 Case studies Impact assessment of global megatrends Ullrich Lorenz & Hördur Haraldsson; February 2014 Some words on GMTs Fuzzy system boundaries of GMTs (it is not clear what exactly moves where) If a question is clearly formulated, it is much easier to understand what is moving and where GMT presentation requires careful attention of what is compared to what GMT are articifical behaviour – looking closer one has to ask which of the trends’ details are causing the impact Currently it is unclear how exactly GMTs are connected or even causally related

26 Some words on GMTs There are factors that are pushing and pulling and acting as driving forces within and between different megatrends. Once identified these common drivers might be the connectors between the GMTs Scales between GMTs are not harmonised. Each GMT is different.

27 «Mapping GMTs», Hördur Haraldsson, SE

28 In the meantime … EEA Annual Work Programme 2016 Draft for consultation 15 April 2015 SA2.3 Megatrends and Transitions - expected output «First results of pilot studies of co-created information with EIONET NRCs FLIS i.e. impacts of Global megatrends at national level and horizon scanning trends»