Multi-model Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting at Spanish Met Institute J. A. García-Moya, A. Callado, P. Escriba, C. Santos, D. Santos, J. Simarro NWP – Spanish Met Service AEMET 10th COSMO General Meeting Cracovia – September 2008

SREPS at AEMET Multi-model Multi-boundaries. 72 hours forecast two times a day. Characteristics: 5 limited area models. 4 boundary and initial conditions Resolution: 0.25º, 40 levels. 20 member ensemble every 12 hours. Time-lagged Super-Ensemble of 40 members every 12 hours. September 2008 10 th COSMO Meeting

Multi-model Hirlam (http://hirlam.org). HRM from DWD (German Weather Service). MM5 (http://box.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/). UM from UKMO (UK Weather Service). COSMO from COSMO consortium September 2008 10 th COSMO Meeting

Multi-Boundaries Different global deterministic models: ECMWF UM from UKMO (UK Weather Service) GFS from NCEP GME from DWD (German Weather Service) CMC from Canadian Weather Service September 2008 10 th COSMO Meeting

COSMO area is the same as HRM area September 2008 10 th COSMO Meeting

Tasks Implementation of LAM models Pre-process Post-process HIRLAM, HRM, MM5, UM, COSMO each with 5 global models Pre-process get global data and prepare for each LAM Post-process probabilistic products, BMA intranet web server Verification September 2008 10 th COSMO Meeting

Tasks COSMO implementation Vertical interpolation tool Crayx1 machine 5 global models Vertical interpolation tool interfacing LAM and global models example: GFS isobaric to hybrid levels int2lm tool can be used September 2008 10 th COSMO Meeting

Meteorological Framework Main Weather Forecast issues are related with Short-Range forecast of extreme events. Convective precipitation is the most dangerous weather event in Spain. Several cases of more than 200 mm/few hours occurs every year. Verification exercises are focused in precipitation using dense gauge network September 2008 10 th COSMO Meeting

520 mm/24 h September 2008 10 th COSMO Meeting

Monitoring in real time Intranet web server Deterministic outputs Maps for each member Probability maps 6h accumulated precipitation 10 m wind speed 24 h 2 m temperature trend Ensemble mean and spread maps EPSgrams September 2008 10 th COSMO Meeting

Monitoring September 2008 10 th COSMO Meeting

Deterministic product Whole Area Zoom over Spain September 2008 10 th COSMO Meeting

How will be tomorrow compared with today? Probabilistic product How will be tomorrow compared with today? September 2008 10 th COSMO Meeting

Spread at key mesoscale areas Ensemble mean and spread Spread at key mesoscale areas September 2008 10 th COSMO Meeting

Bias&RMSE Z500 Z500 Bias & RMSE Implementation error for this member Despite the error the Ensemble Mean has very good verification! Good performance of COSMO members September 2008 10 th COSMO Meeting

Probabilistic Verification H+24 10mWind >=10m/s H+24 Z500 10mWind >=10m/s September 2008 10 th COSMO Meeting

Verification exercise 24h accumulated precipitation forecast 06UTC-06UTC against observed 07UTC-07UTC Checked in HH+030 and HH+054 90 days (Apr1 to Jun30 2006). Different rain gauge networks as references: AEMET precipitation network (pnw) MeteoFrance, DWD, UKMO Joint pnw (many countries) Verification method Interpolation to observation points Verification software ECMWF Metview + Local developments Performance scores ECMWF recommendations September 2008 10 th COSMO Meeting

Joint September 2008 10 th COSMO Meeting

Reliability & Sharpness >=1mm >=20mm >=10mm >=5mm H+30 Joint H+54 Good reliability according to thresholds (base rate) forecast length September 2008 10 th COSMO Meeting

Resolution Good resolution Good RV curves ROC Areas BSSs 1 0.5 1 September 2008 10 th COSMO Meeting

Conclusions A Multi-model-Multi-boundaries Short Range Ensemble Prediction System (MMSREPS) has been develop at the INM-Spain. We show here a 3 months verification, 24 hour of accumulated precipitation, dense net of gauge observations. Verification shows quite good results September 2008 10 th COSMO Meeting

References (2001) Hou D., Kalnay E., & Droegemeier, K.K.: Objective Verification of the SAMEX’98 Ensemble Forecasts. M.W.R., 129, 73-91. (1999) Buizza R., Miller, M., & Palmer, T.N.: Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 125, 2887-2908. (1997) Toth Z., & Kalnay E.: Ensemble Forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. M.W.R., 125, 3297-3319. (1997) Palmer T.N., Barkmeier J., Buizza R., & Petroliagis T.: The ECMWF Ensmble Prediction System. Meteorol. Appl., 4, 301-304. (2004) Palmer, T.N., et al.: Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to inter-annual prediction (DEMETER). B.A.M.S., 85, 853-872. (2005) Arribas A., Robertson K.B., & Mylne, K.R.: Test of Poor Man’s Ensemble Prediction System. M.W.R., 133, 1825-1839 September 2008 10 th COSMO Meeting

Acknowledgements Eugenia Kalnay (Univ. Of Maryland) Ken Mylne, Jorge Bornemann (MetOffice) Detlev Majewski, Michael Gertz (DWD) Metview Team, Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF) Chiara Marsigli, Ulrich Schättler (COSMO) Olivier Talagrand (LMD) We also like to thank many Met. Services for making their climate network precipitation observations available to us for verification (some of them not yet included): Arpa-Sim-Bolonia (Italy), DWD (Germany), EARS (Slovenia), HNMS (Greece), HMS (Hungary), KNMI (Netherlands), Lombardia (Italy), Météo-France (France), NIMH (Bulgaria), NMAP (Romania), SHMU (Slovakia), UKMO (UK), ZAMG (Austria), Cerdeña (Italy), Marche (Italy), Trento (Italy), Venezia (Italy), FMI (Finland), IMP (Portugal) September 2008 10 th COSMO Meeting

Thank you for your attention September 2008 10 th COSMO Meeting