NATIONALLY AND ACROSS OHIO GETTY IMAGES

DROUGHTOF 2012 DROUGHT OF 2012 PRE EXISTING CONDITIONS PRE EXISTING CONDITIONS COMPARISONS TO THE LAST DROUGHT COMPARISONS TO THE LAST DROUGHT IN 1988 BOTH NATIONALLY AND ACROSS OHIO IN 1988 BOTH NATIONALLY AND ACROSS OHIO WHERE WE ARE NOW WHERE WE ARE NOW

DROUGHTOF 2012 DROUGHT OF 2012 WHAT IS DROUGHT? METEOROLOGICAL – DEGREE OF DRYNESS DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT – LINKS METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT TO DROUGHT TO EVAPORTRANSPIRATION, SOIL EVAPORTRANSPIRATION, SOIL WATER DEFICITS, REDUCED WATER DEFICITS, REDUCED GROUND WATER… GROUND WATER…

DROUGHTOF 2012 DROUGHT OF 2012 WHAT IS DROUGHT? METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT FLASH DROUGHT DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME (MONTHS OR WEEKS) DUE TO SUDDEN JUMPS IN TEMPERATURES

BACK IN 2011… BACK IN 2011…

END OF YEAR SUMMARY END OF YEAR SUMMARY YEAR ENDED WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS GREAT PLAINS AND THE OHIO VALLEY YEAR ENDED WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS GREAT PLAINS AND THE OHIO VALLEY SOIL MOISTURE IN OHIO WAS ABOVE NORMAL, NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN PARTS OF GREAT PLAINS SOIL MOISTURE IN OHIO WAS ABOVE NORMAL, NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN PARTS OF GREAT PLAINS

END OF YEAR SUMMARY END OF YEAR SUMMARY YEAR ENDED WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS GREAT PLAINS AND THE OHIO VALLEY YEAR ENDED WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS GREAT PLAINS AND THE OHIO VALLEY SOIL MOISTURE IN OHIO WAS ABOVE NORMAL, NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN PARTS OF GREAT PLAINS SOIL MOISTURE IN OHIO WAS ABOVE NORMAL, NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN PARTS OF GREAT PLAINS WINTER FEATURED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL SNOWFALL WINTER FEATURED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL SNOWFALL SIGNS OF DROUGHT EXPANSION BEGAN TO APPEAR SIGNS OF DROUGHT EXPANSION BEGAN TO APPEAR

LATE 2011 PATTERN LATE 2011 PATTERN

LATE 2011-WINTER 2012 PATTERN LATE 2011-WINTER 2012 PATTERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES START TO EXPAND, MERGE. TROUGH FLATTENS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES START TO EXPAND, MERGE. TROUGH FLATTENS

VERY WARM WINTER IN CORN BELT

VERY WARM WINTER - ALL OF OHIO

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CONTINENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CONTINENT

LARGE VARIATIONS IN SOIL MOISTURE FROM OHIO VALLEY TO CORN BELT BY LATE JANUARY LARGE VARIATIONS IN SOIL MOISTURE FROM OHIO VALLEY TO CORN BELT BY LATE JANUARY

EARLY JANUARY PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATE LA NINA EARLY JANUARY PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATE LA NINA

According to Dr. Klaus Wolter, University of Colorado ( “…Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is based on 6 main observed variable over the tropical Pacific.”

EARLY JANUARY PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATE LA NINA EARLY JANUARY PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATE LA NINA According to Dr. Klaus Wolter, University of Colorado ( “…Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is based on 6 main observed variable over the tropical Pacific.” Sea Level Pressure Zonal and Meridional components of the surface wind Sea Surface Temperature Surface Air Temperature Total cloudiness/fraction of the sky

RED = EL NINO BLUE = LA NINA

RED = EL NINO BLUE = LA NINA

RIDGE DOMINATED WINTER PATTERN STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY BY MARCH RIDGE DOMINATED WINTER PATTERN STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY BY MARCH

HISTORICALLY WARM MARCH! HISTORICALLY WARM MARCH!

FLASH DROUGHT TRIGGER! FLASH DROUGHT TRIGGER!

RIDGE DOMINATED WINTER PATTERN STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY BY MARCH RIDGE DOMINATED WINTER PATTERN STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY BY MARCH

HOW WARM WAS MARCH 2012? HOW WARM WAS MARCH 2012? MARCH WAS THE WARMEST SINCE RECORD KEEPING BEGAN IN THE CONTIGUOUS US SURFACE DATA & SATELLITE DATA (1979) WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER MARCHES IN PAST DROUGHT YEARS (1930, 1931, 1953, 1954, 1988) THIS PAST MARCH BLOW THEM ALL AWAY!

HOW WARM WAS MARCH 2012? RANKED DROUGHT YEARS HOW WARM WAS MARCH 2012? RANKED DROUGHT YEARS 1st 48th 87th 23rd 85th 77th SURFACE DATA - NCDC

HOW WARM WAS MARCH 2012? HOW WARM WAS MARCH 2012? AT ALL REPORTING STATIONS MARCH WAS THE WARMEST SINCE RECORD KEEPING BEGAN AT ALL REPORTING STATIONS IN OHIO (1871). NEXT WARMEST MARCH IN ANY DROUGHT YEAR WAS IN TOLEDO IN 1953 (RANKED 30TH) ONLY 3 OTHER MARCHES ONLY 3 OTHER MARCHES IN THE DROUGHT YEARS AT ANY REPORTING STATION IN OHIO CRACKED THE TOP 50 ALL TIME (1870s)

ANOTHER DRIVER OF DROUGHT ANOTHER DRIVER OF DROUGHT

MARCH PRECIPITATION MARCH PRECIPITATION

SPRING SOIL MOISTURE SPRING SOIL MOISTURE

EARLY SUMMER SOIL MOISTURE EARLY SUMMER SOIL MOISTURE

FLASH DROUGHT OVER OHIO FLASH DROUGHT OVER OHIO

HOW DID 2012 COMPARE TO PAST DROUGHTS ACROSS OHIO? HOW DID 2012 COMPARE TO PAST DROUGHTS ACROSS OHIO?

1988 MONTHLY DROUGHT INDICES FOR 5 OF THE 10 OHIO CLIMATE DIVISIONS 1988 MONTHLY DROUGHT INDICES FOR 5 OF THE 10 OHIO CLIMATE DIVISIONS

2012 DROUGHT CAME ON MUCH FASTER AFTER ABNORMALLY MOIST CONDITIONS 2012 DROUGHT CAME ON MUCH FASTER AFTER ABNORMALLY MOIST CONDITIONS

DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY

COURTESY: WUNDERGROUND.COM

DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY

ANY CHANGES AT SUMMER’S END? ANY CHANGES AT SUMMER’S END?

CORE OF THE DROUGHT SHIFTED WEST BY EARLY FALL CORE OF THE DROUGHT SHIFTED WEST BY EARLY FALL

DROUGHT OF 2012 vs DROUGHT OF 1988 DROUGHT OF 2012 vs DROUGHT OF 1988 UPPER LEVEL PATTERN

DROUGHT OF 2012 vs DROUGHT OF 1988 DROUGHT OF 2012 vs DROUGHT OF 1988 UPPER LEVEL PATTERN

DROUGHT OF 2012 vs DROUGHT OF 1988 DROUGHT OF 2012 vs DROUGHT OF 1988 UPPER LEVEL PATTERN 2012 EASTERN TROUGH MUCH STRONGER IN EARLY FALL THAN IN 1988

DROUGHT 2012 RECAP DROUGHT 2012 RECAP ABNORMALLY WET 2011; DROUGHT ALREADY UNDERWAY IN TEXAS ABNORMALLY WET 2011; DROUGHT ALREADY UNDERWAY IN TEXAS MILD WINTER ; REDUCED SNOW PACK/MOUNTAINS MILD WINTER ; REDUCED SNOW PACK/MOUNTAINS FIRST TRIGGER: RECORD SETTING WARMTH IN MARCH FIRST TRIGGER: RECORD SETTING WARMTH IN MARCH FASTER SNOWMELT; CONDITIONS DRIED OUT FAST IN CENTRAL US FASTER SNOWMELT; CONDITIONS DRIED OUT FAST IN CENTRAL US

DROUGHT 2012 RECAP DROUGHT 2012 RECAP RIDGE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN WHICH FEED THE HEAT. THIS MADE CONDITIONS WORSE WHICH FEED MORE HEAT WHICH STRENGTHENED THE RIDGE… FEEDBACK LOOP! RIDGE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN WHICH FEED THE HEAT. THIS MADE CONDITIONS WORSE WHICH FEED MORE HEAT WHICH STRENGTHENED THE RIDGE… FEEDBACK LOOP! OHIO’S 2012 DROUGHT CAME ON FASTER THAN ANY OTHER DROUGHT. OHIO’S 2012 DROUGHT CAME ON FASTER THAN ANY OTHER DROUGHT. OVERALL PATTERN IMPROVED IN THE FALL. OVERALL PATTERN IMPROVED IN THE FALL.

WHERE ARE WE NOW? WHERE ARE WE NOW?

HOW MUCH RAIN IS NEEDED TO END THE DROUGHT? HOW MUCH RAIN IS NEEDED TO END THE DROUGHT?

OHIO HAS NO DROUGHT! OHIO HAS NO DROUGHT!