Trutz Haase & Jonathan Pratschke THE 2011 POBAL HP DEPRIVATION INDEX FOR SMALL AREAS (SA) An Inter-temporal Analysis Dublin, August 2012

THE 2011 POBAL HP DEPRIVATION INDEX (SA) This presentation contains a graphic display of the latest index scores for the Pobal HP Deprivation Index for Small Areas (SA) The presentation comprises three parts: i.A comparison at NUTS 1-4 level of the key social indicators which underlie the HP Deprivation Index, spanning five census waves 1991 to 2011 ii.SA-level maps for the 2011 key indicators, and iii.SA-level maps for the 2006 and 2011 absolute and relative deprivation scores For a description of the conceptual underpinnings and statistical features of the HP Deprivation Index, please consult separate presentations

OVERVIEW OF SUCCESSIVE DEPRIVATION INDICES, HAASE & PRATSCHKE SA n=18,488 ED n = 3,409 NUTS 4 n = 34 NUTS 3 n = 8 NUTS 2 n = 2 NUTS 1 n = 1 Haase et al., 1996 Haase, 1999 Pratschke & Haase, 2004 Haase & Pratschke, 2005 Haase & Pratschke, 2008 Haase & Pratschke, 2010 Haase & Pratschke, Pratschke & Haase, NI Haase & Pratschke, 2011 Level at which model is estimated Level to which data is aggregated 0611

Comparing Key Social Indicators across five Census Waves

 Demographic Decline (predominantly rural)  population loss and the social and demographic effects of emigration (age dependency, low education of adult population)  Social Class Deprivation (applying in rural and urban areas)  social class composition, education, housing quality  Labour Market Deprivation (predominantly urban)  unemployment, lone parents, low skills base THE UNDERLYING DIMENSIONS OF SOCIAL DISADVANTAGE

POPULATION CHANGE per cent increase between 1991 and 2011 Initial growth faster in S&E Region Since 2006, faster growth in BMW Region

AGE DEPENDENCY RATE percentage point decline between 1991 and 2006 Rural areas gradually catching up Reversal in trend between 2006 and 2011, with Age Dependency Rate again increasing

LONE PARENT RATE Doubling in rate between 1991 and 2006 Highly concentrated in urban areas Further increase in rural areas between 2006 and 2011 Reversal in trend after 2006 in all cities except Cork

PROPORTION OF ADULT POPULATION WITH PRIMARY EDUCATION ONLY % reduction between 1991 and 2006 Rural areas gradually catching up Trend continues between 2006 and 2011, albeit at a slower rate

PROPORTION OF ADULT POPULATION WITH THIRD LEVEL EDUCATION ½ - fold increase between 1991 and 2006 Urban areas maintaining their relative advantage Only marginal increase in select areas between 2006 and 2011 Other areas experiencing first marginal decline

PROPORTION OF POPULATION IN HIGHER AND LOWER PROFESSIONAL CLASSES % increase between 1991 and 2006 Rural areas slowly catching up during boom years Overall trend continues between 2006 and 2011 But urban-rural differential is again growing

PROPORTION OF POPULATION IN UNSKILLED AND SEMI-SKILLED CLASSES Sharp 40% decline between 1991 and 2006 Rural areas rapidly catching up Overall trend continues between 2006 and 2011, albeit at a slower rate

MALE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Rapid decline between 1991 and 2002, halving rates Rural areas not fully participating in trend Massive reversal in trend between 2006 and 2011 for all areas 2011 rates exceed 1991 rates in all counties except Dublin City

FEMALE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Steady decline between 1991 and 2002, nearly halving rates Decline in urban areas exceeds that in rural areas Massive reversal in trend between 2006 and 2011 for all areas 2011 rates exceed 1991 rates in most counties

LOCAL AUTHORITY HOUSING Significant decline between 1991 and 2002, particularly in Southern & Eastern Region Reversal in trend after 2002, with slow increases pertaining since Imbalance between rural and urban provision gradually diminishing

PRIVATELY RENTED HOUSING Strongly concentrated in the cities Steady increase between 1991 and 2006, in both urban and rural counties Steep increase between 2006 and 2011

OWNER OCCUPIED HOUSING Rates in rural counties much higher than in urban counties Steady decline between 1991 and 2006 Accelerated decline between 2006 and 2011, in both urban and rural locations

AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM Significant improvement over time Rural densities falling below urban for the first time in 2002 Urban densities remain unchanged after 2006, but rural densities continue to fall

Mapping Key Social Indicators (SA) 2011 The following maps are broadly based on quintile distributions of each of the ten indicators which underlie the Pobal HP Deprivation Index

5 YEAR POPULATION CHANGE Strongest growth in urban peripheries Strongest decline in (remote) rural areas

AGE DEPENDENCY RATE 2011 Lower rates in urban peripheries Highest rates in (remote) rural areas

LONE PARENT RATE 2011 Overwhelmingly urban phenomenon Reaching over 50% in disadvantaged city areas

PROPORTION OF ADULT POPULATION WITH PRIMARY EDUCATION ONLY 2011 Lowest in urban periphery Highest in remote rural areas Cities containing both extremes

PROPORTION OF ADULT POPULATION WITH THIRD LEVEL EDUCATION 2011 Mirror image of low education Highest in urban periphery Lowest in remote rural areas Cities containing both extremes

PROPORTION OF POPULATION IN HIGHER AND LOWER PROFESSIONAL CLASSES 2011 Similar to high education Highest in urban periphery Lowest in remote rural areas Cities containing both extremes

PROPORTION OF POPULATION IN UNSKILLED AND SEMI-SKILLED CLASSES 2011 Mirror image to professional classes Lowest in urban periphery Highest in remote rural areas Cities containing both extremes

MALE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 2011 The spatial distribution of male unemployment rates increasingly reflect the social class composition of local areas Munster shows relatively favourable labour market conditions

FEMALE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 2011 Female unemployment rates in 2011 closely resemble male unemployment rates in their spatial distribution

LOCAL AUTHORITY HOUSING 2011 Primarily associated with disadvantaged urban areas

PRIVATELY RENTED HOUSING 2011 Exclusively urban with considerable presence in affluent areas

OWNER OCCUPIED HOUSING 2011 Predominantly rural Low urban rates are not necessarily related to social disadvantage

AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM 2011 High rates in the average number of persons per room are a predominantly urban phenomenon

The Pobal HP Deprivation Index (SA) Small Area Analysis,

Age Dependency Rate  1 Population Change  2 Primary Education only  3 Third Level Education  4 Professional Classes  5 Persons per Room  6 Lone Parents  7 Semi- and Unskilled Classes  8 Male Unemployment Rate  9 Female Unemployment Rate  10 Demographic Growth Social Class Composition Labour Market Situation BASIC MODEL OF THE POBAL HP DEPRIVATION INDEX

most disadvantaged most affluent marginally below the averagemarginally above the average disadvantagedaffluent very disadvantagedvery affluent extremely disadvantagedextremely affluent MAPPING DEPRIVATION

ABSOLUTE INDEX SCORES 2006

ABSOLUTE INDEX SCORES 2011

 Shows the massive increase in disadvantage in wake of the recession after the 2006 Census, affecting literally every part of the country. COMPARISON OF ABSOLUTE DEPRIVATION SCORES, 1991 AND 2006

RELATIVE INDEX SCORES 2006

RELATIVE INDEX SCORES 2011

 The pattern between affluence and disadvantage, whereby affluence is greatest in the urban peripheries and gradually declining towards more rural locations, remains broadly intact.  There is some indication that the reach of the affluent commuter belts has somewhat diminished.  Within the Greater Dublin Area, there is some shift in the location of the most affluent areas. Whereas in 2006 the Western part of the Region scored high in affluence, in 2011 this is again primarily concentrated in Dun Laoghaire / Rathdown. COMPARISON OF RELATIVE DEPRIVATION SCORES, 1991 AND 2006

CHANGE IN RELATIVE INDEX SCORES