AUSTIN SCHOOL DISTRICT

 Total Enrollment  Actual ▪ 4,399 (10/01/10)  Projections ▪ 4,399 High K/High Migration ▪ 4,394 Middle K/High Migration ▪ 4,352 Middle K/Low Migration ▪ 4,352 Low K/Low Migration

 Kindergarten  Actual ▪ 363 (10/01/10)  Projections ▪ 365 Low and Middle Assumptions ▪ 370 High Assumption

 Community characteristics  Distribution of students by grade  Resident births  Education choice decisions  Housing: type and increase by type

 Austin Public Schools’ enrollment growth in the past four years is atypical in Minnesota  White, not Hispanic, enrollment declined while minority, especially Hispanic, enrollment increased  Minority students are now 31% of the student body  District residents are less likely to chose other education options than students statewide

 Austin Public Schools’ capture rate of district residents rose over the past ten years, which is also atypical in Minnesota  Resident births in Mower County and Austin City increased dramatically, which is a good indicator of future enrollment growth  The current grade distribution by grade predicts enrollment growth  Austin Public Schools are projected to grow

 Enrollment is projected to increase from 4,373 to 4,739 ( ) to 4,967 ( ) based on the lowest projection  Minority students will continue to be a large share of the student body and may account for nearly 40% of all students in five years  The net in migration of the past year may be an anomaly  When used in projections, the projections are high

 K-12 enrollment is 161 students higher than in  Prior to enrollment declined  was first year of all day kindergarten  Past four years, enrollment up 160 students or 3.8%

YearK-12 Enrollment , , , , , , , , , , ,399

CHANGE Change NumberPercent Total4,2124, % White3,6662, % Minority5461, % Percent Minority13.0%31.4%

 Natural increase  Fall kindergarten class is larger than the previous year’s Grade 12  Natural increase often results in enrollment growth  Net migration tends to be negative  Past year a big exception

COMPONENTS OF CHANGE Fall to FallTotal Natural Increase/DecreaseNet Migration 2000 to to to to to * to to to to

 Nonpublic school enrollment decreased  Nonpublic schools enroll:  8.1% of the district’s school age population  8.7% in Minnesota  Home schools enroll:  1.4% of the district’s school age population  1.7% in Minnesota

 Open enrollment in (128)  2.0% of Austin Public School enrollment ( )  Open enrollment out (153)  3.0% of Austin’s school age population ( )  4.9% of Minnesota students opt for open enrollment

 Charter schools (0)  None of Austin’s school age population  3.6% of Minnesota students

 District’s school age population increasing  to ▪ 192 or 4.2%  Austin Public Schools’ capture rate  87.2% in  85.8% in

 Predictor of enrollment change  Kindergarten up in the past four years ▪ with all day kindergarten, kindergarten was 384 students. Since then, ranged from 356 to 376  Grade 12 largest in (361 students) followed by (325 students)  Elementary grades (K through 5) larger than current high school grades ▪ Predicts enrollment increase

Grade K Total 4,2124,0994,0814,0214,0694,2134,2124,2234,2574,373

 Trends where confidence is high  Aging  Decrease in the school age population per household  Shift in size of key adult age groups, which will affect demand for housing  Low fertility  Enrollment cycles

 Unknowns  Duration of the collapse of the housing market and tight credit ▪ Affects mobility ▪ Housing supply  Economic recovery ▪ Affects immigration

 Two methods  Cohort survival ▪ Kindergarten (births as proxy) ▪ Migration (survival rates)  Housing unit ▪ Housing units ▪ School age child per dwelling unit ratio ▪ Public school capture rate

YearMinnesotaMower CountyAustin City , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

 What is it? Adjusting births to required age to enroll in kindergarten  Births reported by calendar year  Must be 5 as of September 1 enroll in kindergarten ▪ About one-third born six years earlier and two-thirds born five years earlier

Birth YearsPoolPercentageKindergarten 1994; % ; % ; % ; % ; % ; %* ; % ; % ; % ; % ; ; ; ,

Projected Births YearLowHigh

LowMiddleHigh

NET MIGRATION FALL TO FALL 00 to 0101 to 0202 to 0303 to 0404 to 0505 to 0606 to 0707 to 0808 to 09 K Total

 Change in net flow  Kindergarten to Grade 1 until all day kindergarten; now a small net flow out  Net inflow from  Grade 5 to Grade 6  Grade 8 to Grade 9  Net outflow from  Grade 10 to Grade 11  Grade 11 to Grade 12

 Two assumptions  Low is the average of survival rates of the past four years  High is the average of survival rates of the past two years

Grade Survival Rates LowHigh K to to to to to to to to to to to to

Year Low K Low Mig Middle K Low Mig Middle K High Mig High K High Mig , ,352 4,3944, ,405 4,4704, ,481 4,5714, ,614 4,7184, ,7394,7454,8704, ,8234,8404,9935, ,8984,9315,1105, ,9515,0025,2105, ,9615,0345,2585, ,9675,0675,3115,360

K Total , ,3244, Low K/Low M2,2921,1851,2624,739 Middle K/Low M2,2981,1851,2624,745 Middle K/High M2,3711,2181,2814,870 High K/High M2,3941,2181,2814, Low K/Low M2,2271,2451,4954,967 Middle K/Low M2,3271,2451,4955,067 Middle K/High M2,4041,3211,5875,311 High K/High M2,4311,3371,5925,360

 Change in age of adults  ▪ Population in household formation years (20-34 yrs) increases less than from ▪ Decrease in population in the “move up” housing years (35-54 yrs) ▪ Usually have children in the household ▪ Prefer single-family detached units ▪ Huge increase in population 65+ years

MINNESOTA Age yrs995,6211,148,0801,155,370152,4597, yrs1,489,8781,567,5801,520,86077,702-46, yrs404,869631,090788,290226,221157, yrs594,266677,270947,52083,004270,250 Sum3,484,6344,024,0204,412,040539,386388,020

 Dwelling unit type affects the school age child per household ratio  Only single-family detached units have a high yield of school age children  New dwelling units yield more students than older units  As existing units turnover (sold), the school age child per household goes down, except for the very newest units  Value of units affects school age child ratio

 540 additional households by  Increase school age child per household  0.41 in 2008  0.44 in  0.45 in  Increase public school capture rate  87.2% in  88% in and

HOUSING UNIT METHOD ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Assumptions Residents AUSTIN District Nonresidents Total EnrollmentHouseholds TotalAPS ( % 5,2104, ,71511, ( % 5,4634, ,93712,140

Residents Attending APSNonresidents Total EnrollmentHouseholds Housing Unit ( % 4, ,71511,840 Cohort Low K/Low Mig4, ,73911,905 Middle K/Low Mig4, ,74511,918 Middle K/High Mig4, ,87012,241 High K/High Mig4, ,89412,305

Residents Attending APSNonresidents Total EnrollmentHouseholds Housing Unit ( % 4, ,93712,140 Cohort Low K/Low Mig4, ,96712,216 Middle K/Low Mig4, ,06712,467 Middle K/High Mig5, ,31113,084 High K/High Mig5, ,36013,207