2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 1 Ozcan Saritas Scope and Focus of Foresight Exercises – 2 Dr. Ozcan Saritas Presentation to UNIDO Technology Foresight Training Seminar, Gebze November 2006

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 2 Ozcan Saritas Outline  Context & Content of Foresight  Process of Foresight  Foresight “methodology”  Choosing appropriate “methods”  Mobilising relevant stakeholders and participants

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 3 Ozcan Saritas Systems & Foresight  Assumptions –Systems exist –Systems are located in a wider context (other external systems) –Institutional Foresight is embedded in a context –Context affects the content and process of the activity  Keywords –Context: The set of facts or circumstances that surround a situation or event –Content: The sum or range of what has been perceived, discovered, or learned –Process: A particular course of action intended to achieve a result

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 4 Ozcan Saritas Context of the Foresight system

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 5 Ozcan Saritas Content of Foresight Content of Foresight refers to  “what” of change  the subject area(s) taken into consideration  the ideas created related to those areas The main goal of a Foresight exercise is to introduce change or improvements in to the content of the exercise and thus provide further changes or improvements in the context.

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 6 Ozcan Saritas Process of Foresight  “the actions, reactions, and interactions from the various interested parties as they seek to move the (organisation) from its present position to its future state” [Pettigrew, 1987]

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 7 Ozcan Saritas Context, Content & Process Systemic Foresight Model [Saritas, 2006]

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 8 Ozcan Saritas Context, Content & Process of Vision2023 [Saritas, 2006]

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 9 Ozcan Saritas  ‘Methodology’ is not equal to ‘method’  Methodology is prior to method and more fundamental, it provides the philosophical groundwork for methods  Methods are then applied to facilitate discussions, to give directions and to obtain results Methodology of Foresight

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 10 Ozcan Saritas 5 mental acts of Foresight 1.Understanding 2.Synthesis 3.Analysis and selection 4.Transformation 5.Action Systemic Foresight Model [Saritas, 2006]

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 11 Ozcan Saritas  Starts by seeking a reasonably comprehensive view of systems in a wider context.  Creates a mindset for understanding that context  Gains a shared understanding and mutual appreciation of systems in their current context, –including personal worldviews and objectives, by uncovering uncertainties about the values, choices and the environment, and clarifying the goals of developing a strategy  Does not try to bring about a convergence of views. However, at least a partial convergence is likely to emerge from this process to get a commitment for action 1. Understanding

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 12 Ozcan Saritas  Explores alternative courses for development and their integration into designs for a new context  Creates a future context from an existing one  Produces models of the future 2. Synthesis

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 13 Ozcan Saritas 3. Analysis and selection  Concerned with the analysis of alternative futures and decisions on the desired future  The normative goals identified and values shared are considered in the analysis and selection made through the sharing of creative exchange of ideas and information among participants  The desired future context is identified

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 14 Ozcan Saritas 4. Transformation  Establishes the relationship between the future and the present for the change programme  Proposes transformations in: –Goals New practices developed Existing practices improved for compliance –Structures Changes in the organisational structures Introduction and improvement of technical/technological components and infrastructure –Behaviours Changes in the norms and attitudes Changes in the roles

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 15 Ozcan Saritas 5. Action  Creates plans to inform present day decisions concerning immediate change actions to provide –structural transformations (e.g. transformations in organisational structure, technical/technological components and infrastructure) and –behavioural transformations (e.g. transformations in culture, norms, attitudes, roles) needed for the first interventions in the existing situation  Identifies of areas for research and developments  Plans resources (e.g. skills, time, money)  Starts initiatives

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 16 Ozcan Saritas Methods

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 17 Ozcan Saritas Methods [Loveridge, 2004] Road mapping Understanding Synthesis Analysis & Selection Transformation Actions

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 18 Ozcan Saritas What is participation?  “taking part in”  Involvement: getting all kinds of social actors involved in policy-networks  Collective aspect: “a social interaction in a group especially as carried on through attendance at and contribution to group activities” [Currie-Alder, 2003]  Diversity: “people (or stakeholders) in various roles thinking about the same things though from different perspectives” [Isabirye, 2002] in order to foster dialogue to share perspectives, interests, values, information, knowledge, or gain acceptance.

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 19 Ozcan Saritas Purpose of participation  to enrich decisions through: –Understanding: to cope with complexity and create mutual understanding among stakeholders (i.e. to resolve or avoid conflict) –Legitimacy: to empower people to have stronger voice in designing their future; to seek to make a process and outputs more relevant to interested stakeholders; and to create ownership –Capacity: to seek improve the skills, knowledge and experience of those involved

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 20 Ozcan Saritas  Participation is highly important in terms of: –Gathering of relevant information and knowledge –Simulation of new insights and creative views and strategies for the future, as well as new networks –Diffusion of the Foresight process and results to much wider constituencies –Overall impact of Foresight in terms of follow-up action  A critical view might be beneficial, where –conflicts and unequal power distribution occur –equal representation and equal voice needed Participation in Foresight

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 21 Ozcan Saritas Typology of stakeholders 3 attributes: 1. Power of stakeholder to influence decision- making 2. Legitimacy of stakeholder’s claim with respect to the issue 3. Urgency of stakeholder’s claim on the issue [Mitchell et al. 1997]

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 22 Ozcan Saritas Participants of Foresight  Participants of Foresight are individuals or groups, who are affected by or able to affect decision-making on an issue  Who participates depends upon Foresight’s scope, including objectives, orientation and focus (the themes/sectors covered) of the exercise  Typical actors involved in the Foresight process are:

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 23 Ozcan Saritas Ways of participation

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 24 Ozcan Saritas Methods for participation

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 25 Ozcan Saritas The actions from 1 to 31 represent the Foresight cycle: 1.Promotion of Foresight (written, oral and visual presentations) 2.Identification of interested parties 3.Drafting the first outline of the project (objectives and focus) 4.Search for sponsors 5.Involvement of stakeholders (meetings) 6.Identification of sponsors 7.Selection of experts among stakeholders (Nomination) 8.Championing the Foresight process 9.Consultations with stakeholders (to provide future ownership of the process and products) 10.Involvement of stakeholders in SC 11.… [da Fonseca & Saritas, 2005] Organisational structure of Foresight

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 26 Ozcan Saritas Summary  Systems exist  Foresight –deals with those systems, where it is embedded in (context) –aims to change or improve them –intervenes through specific parts (or sub-systems), which potentially have significant influence on the other parts of the system (content)  It is through the Foresight process future oriented ideas are created  The linkage between context, content and process is vital for the “Fit for Purpose”  A Foresight methodology is needed to enable Understanding, Synthesis, Analysis & Selection, Transformation and Action  There are a set of available methods, which can be used in the framework of the designed methodology  Participation is a key element of Foresight process, which helps to create mutual understanding, synergy in idea creation, and ownership

2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 27 Ozcan Saritas Questions / Comments? Dr. Ozcan Saritas UNIDO Training Programme on TF 2006 TF for Organisers – Module 1