Effective spending of climate finance: Exercise – Developing an M&E framework for adaptation

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4 What you can expect to learn from this exercise  Get an understanding of :  the different impact levels (output, outcome, impact) and how they are intertwined;  the concept of indicators to track the delivery of results of specific adaptation measures.

5  Overview of IPCC frameworks for adaptation  Introduction to the concepts of the results chain and indicators  Introduction to the exercise  Reflection and next steps Agenda

6 Overview of IPCC frameworks for adaptation

7 The vulnerability function (IPCC 2001) Exposure Sensitivity Potential Impact Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability to wheather and climate induced hazards such as drought, heavy rain falls etc. of a system (e.g. eco-system, watershed, household, village, city, country) to wheather and climate induced hazards potential or capability of a system to adjust to climate variability and extremes

8 Baseline development Develop impact chain from vulnerability functions for impact groups Step1: Identify relevant exposure factors (weather and climate) for the selected impacts. Step 2: Identify natural, physical or land-management related factors which make an area or a group of people sensitive towards an impact. Step 3: Identify political, social, economic and cultural factors which contribute to a high or low adaptive capacity.

9 Baseline development Development of adaptation measures: Example: land degradation, erosion and landslides Erratic but intensive precipitation events Deforestation Unsuitable cultivation of steep slopes Land degradation Erosion and landslides Knowledge of farmers on proper land management Vulnerability of village farmers to land degradation, erosion & landslides Exposure Sensitivity Impact Adaptive Capacity Afforestation with indegenous species Plant suitable crops High dependency on natural resources Provide skills training to diversify farmer incomes Awareness raising & training on land management Adaptation Measures:

10 Assessing and managing the risks of Climate Change (IPCC 2014) IPCC, 2014 (p. 3): report/ar5/wg2/ar5_wgII_spm_en.pdfhttp:// report/ar5/wg2/ar5_wgII_spm_en.pdf

11 Assessing and managing the risks of Climate Change (IPCC 2014) Vulnerability Hazard Risk Exposure Example: Communities located at flood- prone river bank Community settling at the river bank, living in shanty houses Number of houses and people and the time they spent in the flood- prone area Frequent floods Loss of lives and assets of community due to floods

12 Assessing and managing the risks of Climate Change (IPCC 2014) Vulnerability Hazard Risk Exposure Potential adaptation measures: Communities located at flood- prone river bank Improve houses to sustain floods, educate community members to recognise early signs of flooding Relocate community from the river bank to another area Build flood breaks or establish early- warning system Measures result in reduction of probability of occurence and negative impacts

13 Introduction to the concepts of the results chain and indicators

14 The results chain  … demonstrates the logical order of the expected results related to an adaptation measure, including the direct output of the activity, the expected short- or mid-term outcome and the desired long-term effects (impact).  Example: ActivityOutputOutcomeImpact Proposed adaptation measure, e.g. Flood management in South State Direct results, e.g. Operational flood warning systems for up to 35 municipalities linked to the provincial system Desired short- or medium-term effects, e.g. Improved protection for priority flood- prone areas Long-term effects, e.g. Sustainable and inclusive socio- economic growth in flood-prone areas of South State Results Chain

15 Indicator definition An indicator…  is a quantitative or qualitative factor that provides a simple and reliable means to measure achievement, to reflect the changes connected to an intervention, or to help assess the performance of a development actor. (DAC Glossary of Key Terms in Evaluation, OECD/DAC 2002)

16 Introduction to the exercise

17 Exercise – M&E framework for adaptation Setting You are part of the adaptation department within the Ministry of Environment of CLIFland. Together with your colleagues you are working on an adaptation proposal to be submitted to the Adaptation Fund (AF). As part of the proposal you are required to develop an M&E framework for the proposed adaptation measures. While the results chain has already been prepared by your colleagues, it is your task to identify suitable output and outcome indicators, to suggest appropriate means of verification and to formulate risks and assumptions.

18 Exercise – M&E framework for adaptation Now it is your turn to do the exercise!  Break up in groups of 4 people  Follow the instructions of the step-by-step guide which you will find in the hand-out Step 1: Make yourself acquainted with the project information provided Step 2: Identify suitable outcome and output indicators Step 3: Define means of verification Step 4: Finally, assess risks and make assumptions

19 Exercise – M&E framework for adaptation Step 2: Identify suitable outcome and output indicators (cells B1 + B1.1) Outcome 1Indicator A1 Diversified and strengthened livelihoods and sources of income for vulnerable farm families in minor irrigated and rain fed areas B1 Output 1.1 Indicator A1.1 Develop home garden-based agro forestry systems in target divisions to diversify livelihoods and build households’ adaptive capacity to climate change B1.1 Output 1.2Indicator A1.2 Identify and promote climate-resilient alternative income sources such as livestock, perennial cash crops and inland fisheries B1.2

20 Exercise – M&E framework for adaptation Step 2: Identify suitable outcome and output indicators Use the list of standard/core indicators provided by the Adaptation Fund

21 Exercise – M&E framework for adaptation Step 3: Define means of verification Outcome 1IndicatorMeans of Verification A1 Diversified and strengthened livelihoods and sources of income for vulnerable farm families in minor irrigated and rain fed areas B1C1 Output 1.1 IndicatorMeans of Verification A1.1 Develop home garden-based agro forestry systems in target divisions to diversify livelihoods and build households’ adaptive capacity to climate change B1.1C1.1 Output 1.2IndicatorMeans of Verification A1.2 Identify and promote climate-resilient alternative income sources such as livestock, perennial cash crops and inland fisheries B1.2C1.2

22 Exercise – M&E framework for adaptation Step 3: Define means of verification Use the list of exemplary means of verification but be sure to think beyond the listed options: Project evaluations: semi-annual and annual reports, mid-term and terminal evaluation; Monitoring programmes, GIS data, aerial photos; Interviews with relevant officials; and Information from experts and/or the public; etc. Surveys; Field monitoring reports; Meeting minutes.

23 Exercise – M&E framework for adaptation Step 4: Assess risks and make assumptions Outcome 1IndicatorMeans of VerificationRisks and assumptions A1 Diversified and strengthened livelihoods and sources of income for vulnerable farm families in minor irrigated and rain fed areas B1C1D1 Output 1.1 IndicatorMeans of VerificationRisks and assumptions A1.1 Develop home garden-based agro forestry systems in target divisions to diversify livelihoods and build households’ adaptive capacity to climate change B1.1C1.1D1.1 Output 1.2IndicatorMeans of VerificationRisks and assumptions A1.2 Identify and promote climate-resilient alternative income sources such as livestock, perennial cash crops and inland fisheries B1.2C1.2D1.2

24 Exercise – M&E framework for adaptation Step 4: Assess risks and make assumptions Review four dimensions of risks and assumptions: Financial and economic: Could financial or economic risks jeopardize the sustainability of planned project/programme outcomes? What is the likelihood of financial and economic resources being available once the AF grant ends? Socio-political: Could social or political risks jeopardize the sustainability of planned project outcomes? Is there sufficient public/ stakeholder awareness to support the project’s long-term objectives? Institutional framework and governance: Do the legal frameworks, policies, and governance structures within which the project operates pose risks that may jeopardize the sustainability of project benefits? Environmental: Could environmental risks jeopardize the sustainability of project/programme outcomes?

25 Exercise – Real Case Solution Real Case Solution: Adaptation Fund Proposal 2013: Addressing Climate Change Impact on Marginalised Agricultural Communities Living in the Mahaweli River Basin of Sri Lanka

26 Exercise – Real Case Solution Outcome 1Indicator Means of Verification Risks and assumptions Diversified and strengthened livelihoods and sources of income for vulnerable farm families in minor irrigated and rain fed areas Percentage of target households with sustained climate resilient livelihoods No. of women with new sources of income Field monitoring reports End of project survey Selected livelihood options are complimentary to state and other development interventions in the identified divisions Access to financing and markets for better livelihood targeting Abstract of Adaptation Fund Proposal, Sri Lanka 2013:

27 Exercise – Real Case Solution Output 1.1 IndicatorMeans of VerificationRisks and assumptions Develop home garden- based agro forestry systems in target divisions to diversify livelihoods and build households’ adaptive capacity to climate change No. of diversified home gardens created through project intervention Value of food and income generated through diversified home gardens Village level data sheets maintained by Farmer Organizations Field monitoring reports by Agriculture Extension Officers Community interest and investment in developing and maintaining home- gardens Active marketing chains for home garden produce (raw and processed food, spices, fuel, wood and medicinal herbs) readily available at community level Abstract of Adaptation Fund Proposal, Sri Lanka 2013:

28 Exercise – Real Case Solution Abstract of Adaptation Fund Proposal, Sri Lanka 2013: Output 1.2IndicatorMeans of VerificationRisks and assumptions Identify and promote climate-resilient alternative income sources such as livestock, perennial cash crops and inland fisheries No. and type of alternative livelihood assets created No. of women who participated in livelihood training Report on market chain analysis Division level monitoring committee reports/ meeting minutes Community willingness to take up alternative livelihoods Level of interest in local service delivery to encourage and follow up on livelihood diversification

29 Reflection and next steps

30 M&E framework for adaptation - Reflection What did you learn from this exercise? What challenges did you face in developing the results chain and defining the respective indicators on the output, outcome and impact level? How is your institution/country currently dealing with the monitoring and evaluation of adaptation measures?

31 M&E framework for adaptation– Next Steps Checklist to get CLIF Ready According to what you learnt from this exercise you could … Check with your institution about existing experiences with results-based monitoring for adaptation. Check with your institution/ country about the expenditures of monitoring and evaluation measures for adaptation.