Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' Intelligent Scenario Development for CAX Institute of Mathematics & Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences Zlatogor Minchev Bulgarian Academy of Sciences Center of Excellence in Operational Analyses This publication is supported by NATO’s Scientific Division in the framework of Science for Peace Program - Project SfP ( )

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' Theoretical Background 1. Е-R (Entity – Relationship) model - Chen, 1976 EmployeesProjects Employee on Project Entities Set Relations Set Entities Set m n

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' Systems Theory – Bertalanffy, 1950

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' SCIP – Scenario Computer Interface Program

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' Functional abilities Main menu Toolbar Object’s coordinates

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' Main menu

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' ‘File’

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' ‘Edit’

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' ‘Window’

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' Rubberband tool ObjectsRelations Sensitivity Diagram Virtual Grid Selector tool Toolbar

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' Sensitivity Diagram

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' Objects’ Characteristics Form

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' Relations’ Characteristics Form

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' File Format

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' Excel Interoperability

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' Scenario Example for Crises Management

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' Sensitivity Diagram

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' Ideas to add Intelligence in SCIP Better Relations’ EvaluationBetter Relations’ Evaluation BA w (w  N) -Relation Weight

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' ‘w’ Evaluation Brainstorming Multi-criteria Approach Fuzzy Sets Implementation

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' Multi-criteria Evaluation Multi-valued logic – Łukasiewicz, 1920 Fuzzy Sets – Zadeh, 1965 Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets – Atanassov, 1983

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' Graphical Representation

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' Possible Applications of IFS in SCIP w -  A Interchange among  A, A and  A in accordance with your information Utilization of F ,  optimizing operator for uncertainty minimizing

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' w -  A Create two scales for  A and A that are filled up trough experts’ knowledge and/or brainstorming true -  A A - false

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' Interchange among  A, A and  A in accordance with your information 1. Create two scales for a and b that are filled up trough experts’ knowledge and/or brainstorming for things that you know, don’t know or are uncertain for you;  A, A or  A in accordance with Substitute a and b with  A, A or  A in accordance with Utilize IFS basic relations (see IFS definition) or IFS optimization (see next slide) true - a b - false

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' Utilization of F ,  optimizing operator for uncertainty minimizing {  x,  A (x), 1-  A (x)  | x  E}; A (x) = {  x,  A (x), 1-  A (x)  | x  E}; {  x, A (x), 1- A (x)  | x  E};  A (x) = {  x, A (x), 1- A (x)  | x  E}; F ,  (A) = {  x,  A (x) + ..  A (x), A (x) + ..  A (x)  | x  E},  ,   [0, 1],  +   1, A – fixed set, E universe of disclosure, x element from E (see IFS definition). (0,1) (1,0) (0,0) f  A (x) - possibility f A (x) - necessity F,F,

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' I-SCIP Contribution SfP Scientific Research TACOM SEE 2006 / Protection 2006 Scenario Development NATO MSG – 049 Scenario Development

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' Conclusions Utilization of E-R model, systems theory and holistic thinking; Interoperability between different software products; Interactive work; General view and evaluation of the scenario theatre.

Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' QUESTIONS ?