Ministère de l'Écologie, du Développement durable et de l’Énergie Crédit photo : Arnaud Bouissou/MEDDE FLIS Annual meeting Survey of international good practices in foresight for sustainability transition Halvard Hervieu CGDD / Mission prospective 5 november 2015 European Environmental Agency Copenhagen

22 International Survey Background of the project ●A general interest in a better understanding between «prospective & stratégie » on environmental topics ●A contribution to a coming guidebook for the ministry on environmental foresight ●A curiosity for the practices and methods used in leading countries in the field of foresight worldwide ●A project pursued with the « Futuribles» consultant and its network from september 2014 to october 2015

33 International Survey Countries selected ●Europe: Finland, Germany and Great-Britain (including Scotland) ●Asia: China, Japan, Singapore and South Korea ●Americas: Brazil, Colombia and USA ●Africa: South Africa ●Oceania: Australia

44 International Survey The 15 selected studies Dispositifs permanents Horizon Scanning Programme, Grande-Bretagne Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning, Singapour Japanese Foresight Program, Japon Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China, Chine National Technology Foresight, Corée du Sud Démarches Future of Waste, Grande-Bretagne Scotland 2030-Sustainable communities in Scotland, Écosse New York 2030, États-Unis Devenir des forêts et usages des sols à horizon 2100, Allemagne Intereg : Living with a changing coast (LiCCo) - Littoraux et changements côtiers, France et Grande-Bretagne Estrategia Colombiana de Desarrollo Bajo en Carbono, Colombie 11 Planos Estratégicos Setoriales, Brésil National Strategy for Green Growth, Corée du Sud Foundations for the future - A long-term plan for Australian ecosystem science, Australie The Long-Term Adaptation Scenarios Flagship Research Programme, Afrique du Sud

55 International Survey The five thorough studies ●Land Use Future (Office of Science and Technology - Great Britain) ●Klara (Postdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung - Germany) ●National Foresight Approach (Government agencies - Finland) ●Long Term Mitigation Scenarios (Ministry of Environment and Tourism - South Africa) ●Sustainable Singapore Blueprint (Inter-Ministerial Committee on Sustainable Development - Singapore)

66 International Survey Three categories according to the objectives ●Explore the full range of the futures to shed light on the stakes linked to public policies. ●Explore different strategies aimed at a general objective before selecting and developping one of them. ●Initiate a discusion on specific stakes to feed a predefined strategy.

Ministère de l'Écologie, du Développement durable et de l’Énergie Crédit photo : Arnaud Bouissou/MEDDE

88 International Survey Key messages (1/2) ●Some countries have a complex foresight organization with closed links with the political level. It is difficult to transpose them to other countries. ●There is some sort of paradigm shift between foresight and strategy: they are deeper intertwined even chronologically. ●Direct public consultation is a growing practice that fits the political agenda. ●All the stakeholders are generally not taken aboard, especially the economic or financial sectors.

99 International Survey Key messages (2/2) ●All the usal foresight methods are in use. On scientific matters, the Delphi remains the major tool especially in Asia. ●The climate change has initiated a large number of foresights at different levels. It can drive progress in the different tools as modeling, public participation.... ●There is a great difficulty in assessing the direct impact of foresight in decision making.

Ministère de l'Écologie, du Développement durable et de l’Énergie Crédit photo : Arnaud Bouissou/MEDDE Thank you for your attention